Female Vote Ratings by State

[Xing]

Since this was done for white voters, I thought I'd do a map for the female vote share in each state.

Safe Clinton: 279
Likely Clinton: 68
Lean Clinton: 28
Toss-Up: 30
Lean Trump: 50
Likely Trump: 21
Safe Trump: 62

Thoughts?

[LLR]

Angry Charleston Moms

[AGA]

Interesting. Do you have polling data from specific states based on gender or a you basing these on national polls?

[ElectionsGuy]

According to all the data we have, the gender gap is going to be especially huge this election cycle, I actually think you may be understating Clinton's advantage just a bit. Even in the safe R states the female vote will probably be pretty close. Although I don't feel comfortable making a map myself because I can't necessarily assume the female difference will be the same in each state, so I think your map is good given the approximation issues.

[Badger]

Ift his map were accurate, Trump would be winning markedly

[Xing]

Interesting. Do you have polling data from specific states based on gender or a you basing these on national polls?

I looked at current polling, as well as the 2012 exit polls. I noticed that the gender gap in 2012 was larger in some states than others. For example, there was virtually no gender gap in Colorado (though even a small one this year probably means Hillary is guaranteed to win female voters there) or Missouri, but the gender gap in states like Nevada, Wisconsin, and Iowa was quite large (I considered making Iowa Safe Clinton, but considering how close it is, I'm not sure I can be that confident just yet.)

The gender gap could be even larger than I'm predicting, but I decided not to be too bullish on Clinton just yet.