Clinton PAC pulling back from Virginia

[HillOfANight]

https://twitter.com/gdebenedetti/status/760884313336393728

In addition to cutting back in CO, Clinton super PAC Priorities is also scaling back its VA TV ad buy in the coming weeks.

[KingSweden]

Nice!!

[Speedy]

By almost every measurement, VA is only more safe than it was 4 years ago, where it was carried by a decent margin already. It'll be interesting to see if these pullouts result in an expanded map plan or not.

[heatcharger]

Good. There's only so much TV saturation you can do. She should pivot to snatching NC, and putting Trump on defense in GA and AZ.

[Dr. Arch]

Looking at how GA is polling and seeing how she's pulling out of VA, I wonder if NC is in the Lean D column. We need polls!

[dspNY]

Looking at how GA is polling and seeing how she's pulling out of VA, I wonder if NC is in the Lean D column. We need polls!

I think it is because trumps campaign is doing a reshuffle there

[Xing]

I remember another election where Colorado and Virginia were moving off of the battleground map, albeit in October instead of August: 2008. Not to mention, Pennsylvania was also supposed to be McCain's Hail Mary. Looks like Trump's already in as dire of a position as McCain was near the end in 2008.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I remember another election where Colorado and Virginia were moving off of the battleground map, albeit in October instead of August: 2008. Not to mention, Pennsylvania was also supposed to be McCain's Hail Mary. Looks like Trump's already in as dire of a position as McCain was near the end in 2008.

There's a big difference between being far behind in October and being far behind in August.

[Dr. Arch]

I remember another election where Colorado and Virginia were moving off of the battleground map, albeit in October instead of August: 2008. Not to mention, Pennsylvania was also supposed to be McCain's Hail Mary. Looks like Trump's already in as dire of a position as McCain was near the end in 2008.

There's a big difference between being far behind in October and being far behind in August.

Can you develop this claim further? I'm interested in what you have to say.

[Redban]

I remember another election where Colorado and Virginia were moving off of the battleground map, albeit in October instead of August: 2008. Not to mention, Pennsylvania was also supposed to be McCain's Hail Mary. Looks like Trump's already in as dire of a position as McCain was near the end in 2008.

There's a big difference between being far behind in October and being far behind in August.

Can you develop this claim further? I'm interested in what you have to say.

Check your calendar to find the difference between October and August, particularly in reference to their distances from Election Day.

[Dr. Arch]

I remember another election where Colorado and Virginia were moving off of the battleground map, albeit in October instead of August: 2008. Not to mention, Pennsylvania was also supposed to be McCain's Hail Mary. Looks like Trump's already in as dire of a position as McCain was near the end in 2008.

There's a big difference between being far behind in October and being far behind in August.

Can you develop this claim further? I'm interested in what you have to say.

Check your calendar to find the difference between October and August, particularly in reference to their distances from Election Day.

Great job, Captain Obvious. My question is regarding the nuance between being behind at a closer date and being far behind at a further date even though the date difference is not that big given the context of the discussion, but then again, who cares about nuance?

[Nyvin]

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/va/virginia_mccain_vs_obama-551.html

Up until the end of September it looked like McCain was tied with Obama in Virginia.   If Trump is already behind this early on, it'll be tough to catch up later on.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I remember another election where Colorado and Virginia were moving off of the battleground map, albeit in October instead of August: 2008. Not to mention, Pennsylvania was also supposed to be McCain's Hail Mary. Looks like Trump's already in as dire of a position as McCain was near the end in 2008.

There's a big difference between being far behind in October and being far behind in August.

Can you develop this claim further? I'm interested in what you have to say.

When you look back at past Presidential elections, you see that polls tend to become predictive of the final results with reasonable accuracy somewhere in early September. Before that point, wild swings can and empirically do happen. At this point in the race, polls have been off by an average of 7.5 points from the eventual result. If they're off by 7.5 points in Hillary's favor, then Drumpf could win by a 2004-ish margin.

[heatcharger]

When you look back at past Presidential elections, you see that polls tend to become predictive of the final results with reasonable accuracy somewhere in early September. Before that point, wild swings can and empirically do happen. At this point in the race, polls have been off by an average of 7.5 points from the eventual result. If they're off by 7.5 points in Hillary's favor, then Drumpf could win by a 2004-ish margin.

Here's a major difference between all those elections and this one: the conventions were traditionally in August and September. That's why there's a big drop off in that NYT graph.

[Redban]

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/va/virginia_mccain_vs_obama-551.html

Up until the end of September it looked like McCain was tied with Obama in Virginia.   If Trump is already behind this early on, it'll be tough to catch up later on.

1). Virginia is 2016 is not as favorable to the GOP as Virginia in 2008 was.

2). The 2008 RNC convention occurred in early September (after the DNC convention), so many of those polls that showed McCain ahead are products of the bounce.

[GeorgiaModerate]

To use a football analogy, Trump is behind by a touchdown or maybe a bit more and it's early in the third quarter.  You'd rather be in the other team's position, but this kind of deficit is very doable to make up.  If he gets to October with the same deficit, it would be the middle of the fourth quarter.  Still doable, but much harder to overcome.

[SATW]

To use a football analogy, Trump is behind by a touchdown or maybe a bit more and it's early in the third quarter.  You'd rather be in the other team's position, but this kind of deficit is very doable to make up.  If he gets to October with the same deficit, it would be the middle of the fourth quarter.  Still doable, but much harder to overcome.

^ Good analogy.

[PeteB]

To use a football analogy, Trump is behind by a touchdown or maybe a bit more and it's early in the third quarter.  You'd rather be in the other team's position, but this kind of deficit is very doable to make up.  If he gets to October with the same deficit, it would be the middle of the fourth quarter.  Still doable, but much harder to overcome.

^ Good analogy.

Except the analogy works only if you have the right quarterback, or if the QB can recover from his funk.  Trump fails on both counts. 

So, change the Quarterback, put Kasich or Ryan in there, and I am on board with this analogy.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/va/virginia_mccain_vs_obama-551.html

Up until the end of September it looked like McCain was tied with Obama in Virginia.   If Trump is already behind this early on, it'll be tough to catch up later on.

Why? By your own observation, you've demonstrated that it's possible for a race to swing in October, and it would be highly presumptuous to assume that the race can only move in Hillary's favor and not the Donald's.

[Orthogonian Society Treasurer]

Pride cometh before the fall.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Pride cometh before the fall.

Yes, that's been the Trump campaign motto it seems.

[Kingpoleon]

I remember another election where Colorado and Virginia were moving off of the battleground map, albeit in October instead of August: 2008. Not to mention, Pennsylvania was also supposed to be McCain's Hail Mary. Looks like Trump's already in as dire of a position as McCain was near the end in 2008.

There's a big difference between being far behind in October and being far behind in August.

Can you develop this claim further? I'm interested in what you have to say.

I'll do it for him.

Interesting fact: October is not August!

[Dr. Arch]

I remember another election where Colorado and Virginia were moving off of the battleground map, albeit in October instead of August: 2008. Not to mention, Pennsylvania was also supposed to be McCain's Hail Mary. Looks like Trump's already in as dire of a position as McCain was near the end in 2008.

There's a big difference between being far behind in October and being far behind in August.

Can you develop this claim further? I'm interested in what you have to say.

I'll do it for him.

Interesting fact: October is not August!

The claim was already explained in better detail as I was intently asking:

"When you look back at past Presidential elections, you see that polls tend to become predictive of the final results with reasonable accuracy somewhere in early September. Before that point, wild swings can and empirically do happen. At this point in the race, polls have been off by an average of 7.5 points from the eventual result. If they're off by 7.5 points in Hillary's favor, then Drumpf could win by a 2004-ish margin."

As for your condescension, you can read my response to Redban:

"Great job, Captain Obvious. My question is regarding the nuance between being behind at a closer date and being far behind at a further date even though the date difference is not that big given the context of the discussion, but then again, who cares about nuance?"

[Xing]

Trump does have time to recover, but that doesn't mean he will. He could just as easily fumble even more, and lose by more than McCain did.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Pity, I'll miss the constant stream of the Hillary commercial showing all the horrible things Trump has said.