Wary of Obama's Approval Numbers

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

The incumbent's approval numbers and the economy are two strong predictors of a general election.

Obama has been in the tank directly after his re-election, and have remained below 50% since.

However, in recent weeks his approval numbers have gone up, occasionally hitting 50% in some polls, and importantly being above the disapprove numbers - as of today, RCP Avg is 49.7% approve, and 46.5% disapprove.

In the polls during his entire 8 year tenure, he has never been a significantly popular president. But that aside, his numbers ticked up in 2012 prior to his re-election (for no real reason), and it is apparently happening again.

Obama has done literally nothing to warrant his better approval numbers both in 2012 and currently here in 2016. This is a real trend to follow.

If he can reach 50%+ and sustain it going into the election, I (as a Republican) would/will be very nervous indeed.

Watch this space.

[Virginiá]

However, in recent weeks his approval numbers have gone up, occasionally hitting 50% in some polls, and importantly being above the disapprove numbers - as of today, RCP Avg is 49.7% approve, and 46.5% disapprove.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/116479/barack-obama-presidential-job-approval.aspx

For the last 4 months he has been consistently above 50%, save for 1 poll there early on. Even on RCP it's been over 50% quite a bit. I suppose it depends on what source you prefer to presidential approval ratings though.

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Depends what side of the aisle you're on. "Literally" is certainly the wrong word here. He has done what he could to deliver to his constituents and improve the lives of Americans all around, even with a historical level of Congressional obstruction. I think a fair number of people see that, and of course a lot are now seeing the choice before them and suddenly he's not so bad. But to say "literally nothing" is wildly inaccurate.

That being said, it is not entirely unsurprising how his approval ratings have been unable to leap breach a certain level, given how insanely vicious the GOP Hate Machine has been for the past 7.5 years.

[Rules for me, but not for thee]

Probably because people see what's coming and saying even Obama is better.

[Podgy the Bear]

Over the last 60 years, we have the following similar situations (an election in which the incumbent could not run again):

1960--Eisenhower had good ratings throughout his term but the Republican suffered a debacle in the 1958 mid term elections.  Nixon went on to lose in a close election to JFK.

1988--Reagan was popular and this election really became a referendum on continuing the Reagan agenda.  That, and a poor campaign by Dukakis, resulted in an easy victory for Bush.

2000--Clinton was also popular but Gore was campaigning almost in an anti-Clinton mode.  This turned off a lot of Democrats (including me--I held my nose and voted for Gore that year--but going into Election Day, I would not have been surprised or turned off if GWB had won.  I wouldn't have felt this way if I had known how the post-election events and Bush's presidency would turn out).

2008--GWB was highly unpopular, and the financial crisis of fall 2008 pretty much sealed Obama's victory by September.

[Redban]

Obama's approval ratings have jumped because, with Trump and others dominating the news cycle, people are not paying as much attention to him anymore. You ought to recall the way unpopular Presidents, like Bush 43 and Jimmy Carter, quickly enjoyed rising popularity once they left office, showing that absence brings fondness just as "familiarity breeds contempt."

Once Obama hits the campaign trail in full force, he should see his numbers decline.

[Nyvin]

Obama's approval ratings have jumped because, with Trump and others dominating the news cycle, people are not paying as much attention to him anymore. You ought to recall the way unpopular Presidents, like Bush 43 and Jimmy Carter, quickly enjoyed rising popularity once they left office, showing that absence brings fondness just as "familiarity breeds contempt."

Once Obama hits the campaign trail in full force, he should see his numbers decline.

Yeah, but there's quite a noticeable difference between Bush 43's numbers and Obama's....

I really doubt Obama campaigning will cause the numbers to decline, if anything they should help since he'll be connecting to the public more....his numbers certainly didn't decline when he campaigned in 2012.

[Gass3268]

Once Obama hits the campaign trail in full force, he should see his numbers decline.

Just like they did in 2012, oh wait...