Will Korea be re-unified in the next 50 years??

[Senator Spark]

[Higgs]

No

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Neither side is interested in reunification.

[dead0man]

Idk, hopefully something will happen to help the poor bastards up north.

[Santander]

No, and it gets harder with each passing year.

[Cubby]

They will be at some point, but maybe not in the next 50.

Its not going to be like with German reunification in the 90's. East Germany was maybe 10 years or so behind West Germany technologically. North Korea today is probably 100 years behind South Korea. The primary form of machinery on farms is ox-power, and there are periodic famines.

Even if the North Korean regime is overthrown, it will take decades to get them equal enough to the South to reunify. Didn't West Germans have to pay a tax to help fund reunification? Imagine the massive amounts of money and education it would take to help North Korea. They can't re-unify right away, but eventually they will. 

[Badger]

They will be at some point, but maybe not in the next 50.

Its not going to be like with German reunification in the 90's. East Germany was maybe 10 years or so behind West Germany technologically. North Korea today is probably 100 years behind South Korea. The primary form of machinery on farms is ox-power, and there are periodic famines.

Even if the North Korean regime is overthrown, it will take decades to get them equal enough to the South to reunify. Didn't West Germans have to pay a tax to help fund reunification? Imagine the massive amounts of money and education it would take to help North Korea. They can't re-unify right away, but eventually they will. 

I agree with your observations, Cubby, but disagree with the outcome. POLITICALLY, the Koreas, the US, and the world at large will damn near insist on an ASAP shotgun wedding unifying Korea. Suffice to say that almost no one in the world community wants the instability of a starving post-Kim N. Korea, ESPECIALLY South Korea.

I agree the costs to "catch up" the North with the rest of Korea, or even lesser Asian economies, will be far greater than the costs of reunifying Germany. That said, the US and South Korea will jump at the opportunity rather than risk a Kim resurgence, Chinese invason, or God-knows-what in a nuclear-armed North, whatever the economic cost.

Simply put, the world (primarily us, South Korea, and to a lesser degree Japan) will gladly pay that amount to avoid the chronic danger of a Kim-led North. Even China would probably prefer it to the instability it could create on it's Yalu River border.

[ingemann]

I think that a unification will be easier than people think, Germany's problem in the unification was that it is a welfare state, South Korea on the other hand I could see making the north into a de facto protectorate and using the North Koreans as cheap guest workers for decades, until the North have been somewhat developed.

[Santander]

I think that a unification will be easier than people think, Germany's problem in the unification was that it is a welfare state, South Korea on the other hand I could see making the north into a de facto protectorate and using the North Koreans as cheap guest workers for decades, until the North have been somewhat developed.

The potential human rights issues regarding refugees, labor standards, and de facto second-class citizens would be immense, though.

[GoTfan]

I doubt it. Kim-Jong-Un's been more belligerent than his father was, and something tells me that South Korea won't take that lightly. I think it will happen, but not in 50 years.

[Cubby]

I agree with your observations, Cubby, but disagree with the outcome. POLITICALLY, the Koreas, the US, and the world at large will damn near insist on an ASAP shotgun wedding unifying Korea. Suffice to say that almost no one in the world community wants the instability of a starving post-Kim N. Korea, ESPECIALLY South Korea.

I agree the costs to "catch up" the North with the rest of Korea, or even lesser Asian economies, will be far greater than the costs of reunifying Germany. That said, the US and South Korea will jump at the opportunity rather than risk a Kim resurgence, Chinese invason, or God-knows-what in a nuclear-armed North, whatever the economic cost.

Simply put, the world (primarily us, South Korea, and to a lesser degree Japan) will gladly pay that amount to avoid the chronic danger of a Kim-led North. Even China would probably prefer it to the instability it could create on it's Yalu River border.

Yeah that sounds more likely. It'll be hell for South Koreans economically but North Korea needs to be rescued from it's current medieval state.

[Badger]

I agree with your observations, Cubby, but disagree with the outcome. POLITICALLY, the Koreas, the US, and the world at large will damn near insist on an ASAP shotgun wedding unifying Korea. Suffice to say that almost no one in the world community wants the instability of a starving post-Kim N. Korea, ESPECIALLY South Korea.

I agree the costs to "catch up" the North with the rest of Korea, or even lesser Asian economies, will be far greater than the costs of reunifying Germany. That said, the US and South Korea will jump at the opportunity rather than risk a Kim resurgence, Chinese invason, or God-knows-what in a nuclear-armed North, whatever the economic cost.

Simply put, the world (primarily us, South Korea, and to a lesser degree Japan) will gladly pay that amount to avoid the chronic danger of a Kim-led North. Even China would probably prefer it to the instability it could create on it's Yalu River border.

Yeah that sounds more likely. It'll be hell for South Koreans economically but North Korea needs to be rescued from it's current medieval state.

Agree, though again the world community (particularly us) will chip in considerably.

[Mr. Morden]

How exactly are people envisioning that the North Korean regime will be replaced by a government that's interested in adopting democracy and joining the South?

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

How exactly are people envisioning that the North Korean regime will be replaced by a government that's interested in adopting democracy and joining the South?

This.

Seriously, what do you expect? A Democratic or at least moderatish government appearing out of the blue there? OK, let's say Kim loses power. He would be simply replaced with some other authoritarian figure. It took decades for South Korea to develop a working democracy, and North is really far behind.

Also, the South is not interested in reunification. The best case scenario is turning the North into a protectorate, pumping money in them and there may be unification after a long, long time. A speed reunification would be a ruin for Seoul. 

[pikachu]

I don't see a plausible scenario at the moment, but I wouldn't be surprised since fifty years is a long time (moderate hero)

[Frodo]

North Korea is such a basket-case that I would rather let China have a shot at rebuilding the country in the event the Kim regime crumbles.  They have more than enough money and resources, and besides they are allies.  

And there is a moral case to be made -China is as responsible as the Kim regime for the plight of the North Korean people, given they have upheld the regime for so long.  I think it only reasonable that they should bear the responsibility and costs of rebuilding the country.  

[Badger]

How exactly are people envisioning that the North Korean regime will be replaced by a government that's interested in adopting democracy and joining the South?

This.

Seriously, what do you expect? A Democratic or at least moderatish government appearing out of the blue there? OK, let's say Kim loses power. He would be simply replaced with some other authoritarian figure. It took decades for South Korea to develop a working democracy, and North is really far behind.

Also, the South is not interested in reunification. The best case scenario is turning the North into a protectorate, pumping money in them and there may be unification after a long, long time. A speed reunification would be a ruin for Seoul. 

the most likely scenario is a coup by reformers or widesperad revolt that th military largely supports like Romania. not likely in the forseeable future, but neither was the collapse of the Warsaw Pact in the mid 80's.