Virginia Congressional Elections, 2022

[jamestroll]

Should be an interesting year honestly. Unless I move to out of Fairfax County, I will likely still be in VA-11 and Connolly will be my Congressman. Of course, I am one of the very few transplants in Nova that live in Fairfax County.

My thoughts:

Spanberger is done but I hope to see her in politics still.

Luria, I am not going to write off yet but she has a tough road.

The new VA-07 will probably become a reach seat for the GOP in mega wave years but the primary Democratic electorate will probably select a minority for that seat and will win most of the time. I hope they go with Ayala personally.

Wexton needs to be on alert and I wish the new VA-10 had more of Charlottesville. I feel like this will be the strangest district in the state. Bryce Reeves or some lunatic I hope is the GOP nominee. Youngkin won this district but I also expect 2022 to be a bit better for Democrats than 2021. However, if Vogel is the nominee I will switch it to lean R.



My initial ratings:

VA-07 Tilt Dem (wave watch)
VA-10 Lean Dem
VA-02 Lean GOP

Let's see what happens.

[kwabbit]

VA-10: Tossup. Wexton underperformed Biden by 7 in 2020. This seat is Biden +9. Wexton would've carried it by 2 or 3 had it been in place in 2020. Given the likely swing from 2020 to 2022, tossup seems like the wisest grade. This would almost assuredly be a rental unless the GOP gets a great candidate and congressperson.

VA-02: Lean R. Luria didn't overperform Biden, and this district is now to the right of the nation. Unless the Republicans nominate a crazy, the district is likely to flip.

All other are safe. PWC didn't have that big of a swing to Youngkin, so 7th is safe.

[lfromnj]

VA-10: Tossup. Wexton underperformed Biden by 7 in 2020. This seat is Biden +9. Wexton would've carried it by 2 or 3 had it been in place in 2020. Given the likely swing from 2020 to 2022, tossup seems like the wisest grade. This would almost assuredly be a rental unless the GOP gets a great candidate and congressperson.

VA-02: Lean R. Luria didn't overperform Biden, and this district is now to the right of the nation. Unless the Republicans nominate a crazy, the district is likely to flip.

All other are safe. PWC didn't have that big of a swing to Youngkin, so 7th is safe.

I think she outperformed Biden by 1.5 which is definitely to some degree important.

Also regarding Wextons underperformance. It is important to note the old seat has areas like Great Falls VA. Even Warner underran Biden by 8 points or in cities like those.  I am guessing Wexton wins by 4 or 5 in this seat in 2020.

[kwabbit]

1.1 points which a little more than I thought. There was a right-leaning independent candidate, however. Every little bit counts though, given how competitive her district is.

[jamestroll]

I am in this group. It is called reopen Virginia. They did organize several organized hikes, so I was able to see virtually most of the state.

Here is my ratings of the district based on scenic views

1) 6th (Shenandoah Valley)
2) 9th (Many scenic views)
***These two are very close
3) 10th (part of Shenandoah valley and many scenic parks)
4) 2nd (Surprised at the beauty of the coast here and a lot more pines then I expected)
5) 11th (Potomac and great falls)
6) 7th (Parts are bland but quite a bit of more humble scenic areas)
7) 5th (Not entirely devoid of beauty but nothing particularly special)
3rd (Part of the coast but other wise pretty meh)
9) 8th (The urbanity is nice but meh and note I am rating by natural scenic beauty).
10) 4th- Richmond is not a bad city but the rural areas here are super meh..
11) 1st - literally nothing special about it. In its proposed and its current form.. no matter were you are you feel like you are in the middle of no where.

The further down the list you go, the harder it is to rate

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Connolly could totally retire, Wexton could jump to 11, and Spanberger could run in 10. Just sayin'.

[Skill and Chance]

VA-10: Tossup. Wexton underperformed Biden by 7 in 2020. This seat is Biden +9. Wexton would've carried it by 2 or 3 had it been in place in 2020. Given the likely swing from 2020 to 2022, tossup seems like the wisest grade. This would almost assuredly be a rental unless the GOP gets a great candidate and congressperson.

VA-02: Lean R. Luria didn't overperform Biden, and this district is now to the right of the nation. Unless the Republicans nominate a crazy, the district is likely to flip.

All other are safe. PWC didn't have that big of a swing to Youngkin, so 7th is safe.

I think she outperformed Biden by 1.5 which is definitely to some degree important.

Also regarding Wextons underperformance. It is important to note the old seat has areas like Great Falls VA. Even Warner underran Biden by 8 points or in cities like those.  I am guessing Wexton wins by 4 or 5 in this seat in 2020.

Yes, old VA-10 had basically every country club in Fairfax surgically gerrymandered into it.  Many of those precincts still have quite a downballot R streak despite the Clinton-Biden #'s.  That isn't the case with eastern Loudoun or Albemarle.

[jamestroll]

Uhh.. if democrats continue covid fear mongering the proposed VA 07 based in Prince William County fall to the GOP next November.

Though it would be almost impossible for the GOP to hold it in 2024.

If Democrats drop the BS though..

VA 07 will be over before it started and easily Dem and VA-10, while close, will be a Dem however

[sting in the rafters]

Luria in the swing Tidewater district seems the most vulnerable, especially if Ds haven't learned their lesson about poor black turnout (will they ever?).

[TheReckoning]

It’s clear at this point that Republicans have maxed out among the white working class in Virginia and therefore can’t expect to gain any more ground. Meanwhile, with the growth of Urban areas across VA and a skyrocketing Latino population, I think it’s pretty predictable Democrats will sweep all traditionally competitive districts.

[jamestroll]

Trumpkin was not able to win the new VA-10. Still, Northam was not able to win the old VA-07 either yet that did not stop Spanberger from winning it in 2018.

I am not counting out the GOP in the new VA-10 but they have a more difficult climb then Youngkin did statewide.

The originally proposed VA-10 would have been a probable, but narrow, GOP pick up for a term. The final VA-10 is clearly Lean Democratic at this time.