How accurate is this map compared to what you expect?

[Kingpoleon]

196: Likely/Safe D
171: Likely/Safe R
171: Tossup/Tilt/Lean

[Dr. Arch]

Wisconsin-is-not-in-play-and-neither-is-Minnesota.

[Lyin' Steve]

That's very generous to Trump.  If you're making ME-2, NH, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan tossups then you should also make GA, IN, MO, NE-2, and TX (hey, it's just as likely as Minnesota).  Unless this is supposed to be a Trump-favorable map rather than a wide-range-of-possible-outcomes map.  But then you wouldn't have AZ and NC as tossups.

[Kingpoleon]

That's very generous to Trump.  If you're making ME-2, NH, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan tossups then you should also make GA, IN, MO, NE-2, and TX (hey, it's just as likely as Minnesota).  Unless this is supposed to be a Trump-favorable map rather than a wide-range-of-possible-outcomes map.  But then you wouldn't have AZ and NC as tossups.

I think Arizona and North Carolina are just as much in play as Minnesota, Michigan, and Wisconsin.

[Dr. Arch]

That's very generous to Trump.  If you're making ME-2, NH, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan tossups then you should also make GA, IN, MO, NE-2, and TX (hey, it's just as likely as Minnesota).  Unless this is supposed to be a Trump-favorable map rather than a wide-range-of-possible-outcomes map.  But then you wouldn't have AZ and NC as tossups.

I think Arizona and North Carolina are just as much in play as Minnesota, Michigan, and Wisconsin.

Not at all?

[Xing]

I'd say that the Upper Midwest really isn't in play. We'll see about Utah. Everything else looks fine.

[Kingpoleon]

That's very generous to Trump.  If you're making ME-2, NH, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan tossups then you should also make GA, IN, MO, NE-2, and TX (hey, it's just as likely as Minnesota).  Unless this is supposed to be a Trump-favorable map rather than a wide-range-of-possible-outcomes map.  But then you wouldn't have AZ and NC as tossups.

I think Arizona and North Carolina are just as much in play as Minnesota, Michigan, and Wisconsin.

Not at all?

I thought you were one of the posters who thinks this will be Obama 2012+NC for Hillary.

[Dr. Arch]

That's very generous to Trump.  If you're making ME-2, NH, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan tossups then you should also make GA, IN, MO, NE-2, and TX (hey, it's just as likely as Minnesota).  Unless this is supposed to be a Trump-favorable map rather than a wide-range-of-possible-outcomes map.  But then you wouldn't have AZ and NC as tossups.

I think Arizona and North Carolina are just as much in play as Minnesota, Michigan, and Wisconsin.

Not at all?

I thought you were one of the posters who thinks this will be Obama 2012+NC for Hillary.

Yea, around those lines; you're not wrong there. I'm just questioning the idea of conflating AZ and NC with MN, MI, and WI. If we take the narrative that Trump is 'naturally stronger' in MI than other R candidates, I would see these states like this on a swing-state continuum, so to speak, if the election were a tie:

R: AZ---NC-[D]---MI-------WI------MN (TX level pickup)

[RaphaelDLG]

If AK, UT, MN, MI, WI, AZ are grey, than NV absolutely has to be, too.  Trump is the dog in Nevada, but in a 50-50 race I wouldn't count him out because of his strong performance in resort areas.

IMO right now:
Safe R = AK, UT
Likely R = AZ
Lean R = None
Tossup (Tilt R) = None
Tossup (Tilt D) = NC, FL, OH
Lean D = NV, CO, IA, NH, PA, VA, WI
Likely D = MI, MN

The Romney states, with the exception of NC, are just really, really R.  The Democrat would have to just totally blow the Republican out to win them.

[BlueSwan]

I continue to not believe that Utah is competitive at all. Would love to be proved wrong, but for now I regard is a safe R. Alaska is similarly at least lean R.

Wisconsin and Minnesota should be at the very least lean D.

I continue to have doubts that Arizona can flip, but will grant that it is within Hillarys reach if she wins big - but so is Georgia then.

Basically, I don't really believe in much realigning this election, but we'll see. It would be fun to have a bit of a change from the very stable 2000-2004-2008-2012 maps.

[President Johnson]

Almost. Utah and Arizona, however, are in TRUMP's bag, that's certain. Some folks, especially in the media, are so obsessed with Utah. It's ridiculous. TRUMP will underperform previous Republicans here, but he'll still win convincingly.

On the other hand, Minnesota is likely D.

[ElectionsGuy]

Disagree with Utah, Alaska, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan (the first two Likely R and the last three Likely D). Otherwise I agree.