Jiggle the vote, according to 538.com
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  Jiggle the vote, according to 538.com
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Author Topic: Jiggle the vote, according to 538.com  (Read 553 times)
pbrower2a
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« on: June 02, 2016, 07:44:17 PM »

538.com has a remarkable tool for showing how differing patterns of participation and partisanship by different groups of people (blacks, Latinos, "Asians and others", "college-educated whites", and non-college-educated whites would vote in the 2016 Presidential election.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-swing-the-election/

Here's 2012:



(I am not showing the districts of Maine and Nebraska because 538.com does not mention them).

The "Asian and other" category includes Asians and Pacific islanders, primarily; the second-largest group of them are what Canadians call First Peoples -- Native Americans and Alaska natives. These are heavily concentrated in non-swing states (AK, AZ, CA, HI, NM, OK, OR, TX, WA) generally nowhere near being close in 2012. Cut their participation to zero or raise it to 100%, and one gets roughly the same electoral results as in 2012. No map needed.

 I start jiggling the amount for educated white people, and states start appearing in the Democratic column. At a 52R-48D, North Carolina goes D. At an even split, Georgia goes D. Around 55%, one starts to see Missouri, Indiana, Arizona, and South Carolina go D.  At 57% among educated white voters, only two states slip away from the Republicans, but one of those is Texas. 




2012 wins for the Democrat 332
at 50-50 among educated white voters (40% saturation) 363 (Obama got 365 in 2008)
at 55D-45R among educated white voters (30% saturation) 404
at 57D-43R among educated white voters (20% saturation) 448

I'm not going to show it on the map, but if well-educated white people voted like Asian-Americans, Hillary Clinton would end up with about 500 electoral votes and all states except Idaho, Utah, Wyoming, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Kentucky, and West Virginia. 
   
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #1 on: June 02, 2016, 07:57:14 PM »

I'm guessing that college-educated white people were about 80% Republican in the 1940s. There were also far fewer of them.
 
Jiggling the vote for white educated people to 80R but leaving all other votes alone I get this result:



(I am not showing the districts of Maine and Nebraska because 538.com does not mention them).

Suppression of the Latino vote hasn't happened often, but suppression of the black vote has been common. The four states in which such could make a difference are in order Florida, Virginia, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. Not Colorado, which would still go D even if the percentage of the black vote went down to 28%.  Possible? Not with the Obama-era Justice Department.   


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