I don't think you can even call Rauner an underdog for reelection at this point (it's too early), but reelecting Rauner would mean the end of the Madigan cartel in Illinois and might even cause Madigan to retire.
Then again, I liked Pat Quinn a lot as governor. He inherited a huge mess and did, in my view, the best he could with the hand he was dealt.
Did you vote for the People's Pat?!
Durbin would be far from guaranteed to beat Rauner.
Then no one would be guaranteed to beat Rauner. Durbin is very well-liked in this state.
Durbin and Lisa Madigan would be two solid bets to beat him. Anyone else will have a good shot but will be more contested. Unless Jesse White, also beloved, threw his hat in.
Using 2014 as an example is poor. Durbin won by 10+ percent in a terrible climate for Dems in the state. No one expected Schneider to lose in IL-10, but he did as a result of the climate. IL-13 and IL-12, supposed to be close races, were blowouts. The fact that Durbin still cleaned up is a testament to his strength.
