Atlas Poll on the Presidential Race.

[Senator Cris]

https://docs.google.com/forms/d/1mw43o2UPmhqqGd2FXlal2uplwFSpiz13ZdjTxQnvSY4/viewform

Go!

[Senator Cris]

Bump.

[LLR]

It's less so who will be his running mate than who would allow themselves to be on a ticket with him. The list is very short.

[Senator Cris]

Last bump.

[Catholics vs. Convicts]

When and where will we see the results?

[Senator Cris]

Results (1/2)

Hillary Clinton's running mate:
53.6% Virginia Senator Tim Kaine
17.9% Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren
10.7% HUD Secretary Julian Castro
  7.1% Minnesota Senator Al Franken
  3.6% Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar
  3.6% New Jersey Senator Cory Booker
  3.6% Former Labor Secretary Hilda Solis

Donald Trump's running mate:
17.9% New Jersey Governor Chris Christie
14.3% Oklahoma Governor Mary Fallin
12.5% Florida Senator Marco Rubio
  7.1% Ohio Governor John Kasich
  7.1% Former Presidential Candidate Ben Carson
  7.1% Alabama Senator Jeff Sessions
  3.6% Former Virginia Senator Jim Webb
  3.6% Former Speaker Newt Gingrich
  3.6% Washington Representative Cathy McMorris Rodgers
  3.6% Former Utah Governor John Huntsman
  3.6% Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee
  3.6% Former Massachusetts Senator Scott Brown
  3.6% Former Texas Senator Ted Cruz
  3.6% Washington Representative Jaime Herrera Beutler
  3.6% Ted Nugent
  1.8% Florida Governor Rick Scott

(there was a Rubio/Scott vote that was counted as 0.5 for each)

[Senator Cris]

Results (2/2)

Popular vote winner:
93.1% Hillary Clinton
  6.9% Donald Trump

Electoral College winner:
86.2% Hillary Clinton
13.8% Donald Trump

Map Prediction (shades = % of voters that think that candidate will win the state)

347 EVs for Hillary Clinton
191 EVs for Donald Trump

States that aren't 100% for a candidate:
Arizona: Trump 58.6%
Arkansas: Trump 96.5%
Colorado: Clinton 96.5%
Florida: Clinton 86.2%
Georgia: Trump 86.2%
Indiana: Trump 96.5%
Iowa: Clinton 79.3%
Kansas: Trump 96.5%
Louisiana: Trump 96.5%
Maine: Clinton 96.5%
Michigan: Clinton 93.1%
Minnesota: Clinton 96.5%
Mississippi: Trump 96.5%
Missouri: Trump 75.9%
Montana: Trump 93.1%
Nevada: Clinton 96.5%
New Hampshire: Clinton 93.1%
New York: Clinton 96.5%
North Carolina: Clinton 79.3%
Ohio: Clinton 79.3%
Pennsylvania: Clinton 93.1%
South Carolina: Trump 96.5%
Utah: Trump 82.8%
Vermont: Clinton 96.5%
Virginia: Clinton 89.6%
Wisconsin: Clinton 93.1%

[The Other Castro]

I guess that makes this the Atlas starting point of map discussion:

I'm wondering about those two people that said Trump would win VT and NY...

[The Other Castro]

UT and AR more likely to vote Democratic than TX?

If votes were weighted by confidence, the order would probably be different. Also, this is the 90+% confidence map: