Does this Indiana county map (D) look realistic?

[sportydude]

Left: My prediction --- Right: Clinton vs. Obama 2008

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Can't see it.

[ElectionsGuy]

There's a problem with imgur on this forum, but nonetheless I copied the url into the search bar and got it. I don't think that Sanders will win so overwhelmingly in those rural counties, and Clinton may win a few more, but it is plausible. It shouldn't be surprising at this point that Clinton can win a state carrying the small minority of counties.

One last note: Monroe County will almost certainly go to Sanders, its a university county.

[Lief 🗽]

I don't know why you think Sanders will do so well in southern Indiana. Clinton may very well win that area. She's done well with rural southern whites, especially in open primaries.

[Ronnie]

It really depends on Clinton's margin of victory.  If she wins by around 10, which is the polling consensus right now, I can see her making inroads in some rural counties, particularly along the Ohio River.

[Santander]

Clinton will not carry Monroe - that's basically the only actual liberal county in the state. Based on Clinton's performances in Southern Illinois, she'll probably win the Evansville area and some of the Louisville suburbs.

[sportydude]

I realized that quite many states' county maps look like negative images of the 20008 primaries.
Hence I thought Indiana might follow suit.
Keep in mind, the result will probably be 50:50. Since Hillary is likely to win the African-American and the populous counties, all of which she lost to Obama eight years ago, she'll have to cede numerous rural counties to Bernie. That's why this "negative image" model came to to my mind.

P.S.: I'll use postimg.org from now on.

[Boston Bread]

I don't see Sanders getting >70% in any counties. He usually wins rural counties with 50-65%. I also expect Sanders to do better in Indy than Gary.

[libertpaulian]

Hamilton will go for Clinton.  It's a very wealthy suburban county (one of the wealthiest in the nation in fact), and Clinton does quite well with affluent and middle-class suburban voters.

[catographer]

Indiana's county results are so hard to predict for me for two main reasons. One is that the results of the rural counties in two of the neighboring states, Illinois and Ohio, are so opposite. Rural IL went for Sanders almost uniformly, rural Ohio went for Clinton almost uniformly. Two is that Kentucky hasn't voted, which would have given us clues to how southern Indiana would vote. Based on what he know however, that Clinton has been winning southern whites and big cities, and that Sanders has won most Midwestern rural counties except for Ohio's, I would think that the results would look something like this:



Then again, because of Indiana having a large southern identity (more so than other midwestern states), it may be that the vast majority of Indiana's rural counties will go for Clinton like in Ohio. Either way, I can't see Sanders winning Indiana unless he outperforms among culturally southern whites. We saw in Missouri how the culturally southern rural whites went for Clinton while the more Midwestern rural whites went for Sanders. That made her nearly tie him in rural Missouri, while her margins in KC and St. Louis won the day for her (still think that it should have been a bigger win, but Clinton has been doing worse in the Midwest in metro and urban areas than she has in other urban areas like in the South and North east).

[Mehmentum]

^
I agree.

If Indiana acts like Illinois and Michigan, it would be a low single digit win for Sanders (mirroring Clinton's single digit win in '08).  If Clinton has some strength in the southern counties, she'll win narrowly, like Missouri.  If Clinton's appeal with whites in Ohio and Pennsylvania stretches into Indiana, she could win the state by 10 points or so.

[Boston Bread]

This is Benchmark Politics' prediction.

They justify Sanders winning in wealthy suburban counties by saying that Sanders has won in several wealthy midwestern states like DuPage and Waukesha. I can see that happening, though +16 in Hamilton seems a bit of a stretch.

[IceSpear]

Take Benchmark with a pillar of salt. Their PA county predictions were absolutely dreadful. They only had Sanders winning 3 counties, one of which was Montgomery, an obvious Hillary county that she won by nearly 20 points.

[Xing]

Southern Indiana will be very interesting, and it's hard to know exactly how it will go. I think it'll be somewhat of a mishmash, not a clear sweep for either candidate. Those predictions for Northern Indiana seem plausible, though.