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Author Topic: Rate the remaining Democratic contests  (Read 1751 times)
Xing
xingkerui
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Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

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« on: April 10, 2016, 11:21:53 AM »
« edited: April 10, 2016, 12:32:53 PM by xingkerui »
4/19
New York: Safe Clinton
4/26
Connecticut: Lean Clinton
Delaware: Safe Clinton
Maryland: Safe Clinton
Pennsylvania: Likely Clinton
Rhode Island: Toss-up
5/3
Indiana: Toss-up
5/7
Guam: Likely Clinton
5/10
West Virginia: Lean Sanders (hope Clinton wins here, though)
5/17
Kentucky: Lean Clinton
Oregon: Safe Sanders
6/4
Virgin Islands: Safe Clinton
6/5
Puerto Rico: Safe Clinton
6/7
California: Lean Clinton
Montana: Safe Sanders
New Jersey: Safe Clinton
New Mexico: Likely Clinton
North Dakota: Safe Sanders
South Dakota: Likely Sanders
6/14
D.C.: Safe Clinton
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psychprofessor
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« Reply #1 on: April 10, 2016, 11:27:04 AM »
I think NM is safe Clinton.
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ElectionsGuy
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Posts: 21,102
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E: 7.10, S: -7.65

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« Reply #2 on: April 10, 2016, 11:32:52 AM »
NY: Likely Clinton

CT: Lean Clinton
DE: Safe Clinton
MD: Safe Clinton
PA: Likely Clinton
RI: Toss-Up

IN: Toss-Up

WV: Toss-Up

KY: Likely Clinton
OR: Likely Sanders

California: Lean Clinton
Montana: Likely Sanders
New Jersey: Likely Clinton
New Mexico: Likely Clinton
North Dakota: Safe Sanders
South Dakota: Likely Sanders

Other Contests

Guam: Likely Clinton
Virgin Islands: Likely Clinton
Puerto Rico: Safe Clinton
District of Columbia: Safe Clinton
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Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon
Dwarven Dragon
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E: -1.42, S: -0.52

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« Reply #3 on: April 10, 2016, 11:44:12 AM »
4/19
New York: Likely Clinton 
4/26
Connecticut: Lean Sanders
Delaware: Likely Clinton
Maryland: Safe Clinton
Pennsylvania: Lean Clinton
Rhode Island: Likely Sanders
5/3
Indiana: Lean Sanders
5/7
Guam: Lean Clinton
5/10
West Virginia: Likely Sanders
5/17
Kentucky: Lean Sanders
Oregon: Safe Sanders
6/4
Virgin Islands: Lean Clinton
6/5
Puerto Rico: Likely Clinton
6/7
California: Lean Clinton
Montana: Safe Sanders
New Jersey: Likely Clinton
New Mexico: Likely Clinton
North Dakota: Safe Sanders
South Dakota: Safe Sanders
6/14
DC: Safe Clinton
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BundouYMB
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« Reply #4 on: April 10, 2016, 11:51:35 AM »
« Edited: April 10, 2016, 11:53:59 AM by BundouYMB »
4/19:
New York: Safe Clinton

4/26:
Connecticut: Likely Clinton
Delaware: Likely Clinton
Maryland: Safe Clinton
Pennsylvania: Safe Clinton
Rhode Island: Likely Clinton

5/3:
Indiana: Lean Clinton

5/7:
Guam: Safe Clinton

5/10:
West Virginia: Likely Clinton

5/17:
Kentucky: Lean Clinton
Oregon: Toss up (closed primary)

6/4:
Virgin Islands: Safe Clinton

6/5:
Puerto Rico: Safe Clinton

6/7:
California: Safe Clinton
Montana: Lean Sanders
New Jersey: Safe Clinton
New Mexico: Safe Clinton
North Dakota: Lean Sanders (closed caucus -- we saw Clinton come close in Wyoming)
South Dakota: Toss up (primary and Clinton's best western state in '08)

6/14:
District of Columbia: Safe Clinton
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dspNY
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« Reply #5 on: April 10, 2016, 11:52:59 AM »
April 19:

NY: Safe Clinton

April 26:

Connecticut: Likely Clinton
Delaware: Likely Clinton
Maryland: Safe Clinton
Pennsylvania: Likely Clinton
Rhode Island: Tossup

May 3:

Indiana: Tossup

May 7:

Guam: Safe Clinton

May 10:

West Virginia: Likely Sanders

May 17:

Kentucky: Lean Sanders, but barely, closer to Tossup
Oregon: Safe Sanders

June 4:

Virgin Islands: Safe Clinton

June 5:

PR: Safe Clinton

June 7:

California: Lean Clinton
Montana: Safe Sanders
New Jersey: Safe Clinton
New Mexico: Likely Clinton
North Dakota: Safe Sanders
South Dakota: Safe Sanders

6/14:

DC: Safe Clinton
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Senator Spark
Spark498
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Political Matrix
E: -6.58, S: 0.00

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« Reply #6 on: April 10, 2016, 11:55:06 AM »
4/19
New York: Likely Clinton
4/26
Connecticut: Lean Clinton
Delaware: Lean Sanders
Maryland: Likely Clinton
Pennsylvania: Likely Clinton
Rhode Island: Toss-up
5/3
Indiana: Toss-up
5/7
Guam: Lean Clinton
5/10
West Virginia: Likely Sanders
5/17
Kentucky: Lean Sanders slightly
Oregon: Safe Sanders
6/4
Virgin Islands: Safe Clinton
6/5
Puerto Rico: Safe Clinton
6/7
California: Lean Clinton
Montana: Safe Sanders
New Jersey: Safe Clinton
New Mexico: Lean Clinton
North Dakota: Safe Sanders
South Dakota: Likely Sanders
6/14
D.C.: Toss-up (who knows)
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Pragmatic Conservative
1184AZ
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E: 3.00, S: -0.41

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« Reply #7 on: April 10, 2016, 11:57:08 AM »
New York: Likely Clinton
4/26
Connecticut:Toss Up
Delaware: Safe Clinton
Maryland: Safe Clinton
Pennsylvania: Lean Clinton
Rhode Island: Toss-up
5/3
Indiana: Lean Sanders
5/7
Guam: Safe Clinton
5/10
West Virginia: Likely Sanders
5/17
Kentucky: Likely Sanders
Oregon: Safe Sanders
6/4
Virgin Islands: Safe Clinton
6/5
Puerto Rico: Safe Clinton
6/7
California: Likely Clinton
Montana: Safe Sanders
New Jersey: Safe Clinton
New Mexico: Safe Clinton
North Dakota: Safe Sanders
South Dakota: Safe Sanders

Washington DC-Safe Clinton
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Shadows
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« Reply #8 on: April 10, 2016, 12:00:56 PM »
4/19
New York: Likely Clinton
4/26
Connecticut: Lean Clinton
Delaware: Safe Clinton
Maryland: Safe Clinton
Pennsylvania: Likely Clinton
Rhode Island: Toss-up
5/3
Indiana: Toss-up
5/7
Guam: Likely Clinton
5/10
West Virginia: Lean Sanders
5/17
Kentucky: Toss-up
Oregon: Safe Sanders
6/4
Virgin Islands: Safe Clinton
6/5
Puerto Rico: Likely Clinton
6/7
California: Lean Sanders
Montana: Safe Sanders
New Jersey: Lean Clinton
New Mexico: Likely Clinton
North Dakota: Safe Sanders
South Dakota: Safe Sanders

Washington DC-Safe Clinton
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Former Senator Haslam2020
Haslam2020
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« Reply #9 on: April 10, 2016, 12:24:10 PM »
NY: Likely Clinton

Connecticut: Lean Clinton
Delaware: Safe Clinton
Maryland: Safe Clinton
PA: Safe Clinton
RI: Tossup

Indiana: Lean Sanders

Guam: Likely Clinton

West Virginia: Lean Sanders

Kentucky: Lean Sanders
Oregon: Safe Sanders

Virgin Islands: Safe Clinton

Puerto Rico: Likely Clinton

California: Tossup
Montana: Safe Sanders
New Jersey: Safe Clinton
New Mexico: Likely Clinton
North Dakota: Safe Sanders
South Dakota: Safe Sanders
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Holmes
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Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -5.74

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« Reply #10 on: April 10, 2016, 12:41:32 PM »
4/19:
New York: Safe Clinton

4/26:
Connecticut: Likely Clinton
Delaware: Likely Clinton
Maryland: Safe Clinton
Pennsylvania: Safe Clinton
Rhode Island: Lean Clinton

5/3:
Indiana: Toss up (Tilt Clinton)

5/7:
Guam: Safe Clinton

5/10:
West Virginia: Lean Sanders

5/17:
Kentucky: Toss up (Tilt Sanders)
Oregon: Likely Sanders

6/4:
Virgin Islands: Likely Clinton

6/5:
Puerto Rico: Safe Clinton

6/7:
California: Likely Clinton
Montana: Likely Sanders
New Jersey: Safe Clinton
New Mexico: Safe Clinton
North Dakota: Safe Sanders
South Dakota: Lean Sanders

6/14:
District of Columbia: Safe Clinton
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ElectionsGuy
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Posts: 21,102
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E: 7.10, S: -7.65

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« Reply #11 on: April 10, 2016, 12:44:04 PM »
Can someone explain the Kentucky/West Virginia thinking for me? Are they closed primaries?
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Xing
xingkerui
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Posts: 30,323
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Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

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« Reply #12 on: April 10, 2016, 12:46:35 PM »
Quote from: ElectionsGuy on April 10, 2016, 12:44:04 PM
Can someone explain the Kentucky/West Virginia thinking for me? Are they closed primaries?

I think the idea is that, like Oklahoma, some people will vote for the anti-establishment candidate (Sanders) due to Obama's unpopularity. I'm not sure I buy it yet, but we'll see.
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Holmes
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E: -6.45, S: -5.74

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« Reply #13 on: April 10, 2016, 12:50:20 PM »
Quote from: ElectionsGuy on April 10, 2016, 12:44:04 PM
Can someone explain the Kentucky/West Virginia thinking for me? Are they closed primaries?

Kentucky is a closed primary. West Virginia is a semi-closed primary, so only Democrats and indies can vote in the Democratic primary (Dixiecrats can't vote in the Republican primary).

Seeing how Oklahoma voted in similar circumstances (a ~22% Clinton win in '08 to a ~10% loss in '16), and how KY and WV, along with OK, were among Obama's worst 2012 primary states (where anti-abortion activists and someone literally in jail got more than double digit shares of the vote against him), there will be a lot of Sanders protest votes against Clinton (which will be, in essence, protest votes against Obama). Clinton did win Kentucky in '08 by about 36% and West Virginia by about 41%, so there just may be enough residual support for her to carry her over the top, but probably not.
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IceSpear
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E: -6.19, S: -6.43

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« Reply #14 on: April 12, 2016, 09:53:26 PM »
NY: Safe Clinton

MD: Safe Clinton
DE: Likely Clinton
PA: Likely Clinton
CT: Toss Up
RI: Toss Up

IN: Toss Up

WV: Likely Sanders

OR: Safe Sanders
KY: Lean Sanders

NJ: Safe Clinton
NM: Likely Clinton
CA: Lean Clinton
SD: Likely Sanders
MT: Safe Sanders
ND: Safe Sanders

DC: Safe Clinton
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Gass3268
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« Reply #15 on: April 12, 2016, 09:56:48 PM »
Quote from: IceSpear on April 12, 2016, 09:53:26 PM
NY: Safe Clinton

MD: Safe Clinton
DE: Likely Clinton
PA: Likely Clinton
CT: Toss Up
RI: Toss Up

IN: Toss Up

WV: Likely Sanders

OR: Safe Sanders
KY: Lean Sanders

NJ: Safe Clinton
NM: Likely Clinton
CA: Lean Clinton
SD: Likely Sanders
MT: Safe Sanders
ND: Safe Sanders

DC: Safe Clinton

This looks to be about right. I think I would move PA to Lean Clinton and SD to Lean Sanders.
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The Other Castro
Castro2020
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« Reply #16 on: April 12, 2016, 10:09:09 PM »
NY: Likely Clinton

MD: Safe Clinton
DE: Likely Clinton
PA: Lean Clinton
CT: Tilt Clinton
RI: Tilt Sanders

IN: Toss Up

WV: Likely Sanders

OR: Safe Sanders
KY: Lean Sanders

NJ: Safe Clinton
NM: Likely Clinton
CA: Tilt Clinton
SD: Lean Sanders
MT: Safe Sanders
ND: Safe Sanders

DC: Safe Clinton
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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E: -2.71, S: -5.22

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« Reply #17 on: April 12, 2016, 10:57:06 PM »
NY: Safe Clinton

MD: Safe Clinton
DE: Safe Clinton
PA: Likely Clinton
CT: Lean Clinton
RI: Lean Clinton

IN: Toss Up

WV: Toss Up (slight Lean Sanders)

OR: Safe Sanders
KY: Toss Up (slight lean Clinton)

NJ: Safe Clinton
NM: Safe Clinton
CA: Likely Clinton
SD: Lean Sanders
MT: Safe Sanders
ND: Safe Sanders

DC: Safe Clinton
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