Hi everyone I just wanted to give my perspective on the upcoming (I presume) Trump vs Hillary election from across the pond (the UK). I have followed American politics for over a year now having followed UK politics from even longer)and have read this forum for a long time too, there are a lot of very good posts on here and a lot of utterly deluded ones too (from both sides). But nevertheless here is my perspective, feel free to disagree:
A Trump win is, barring some unforeseen turn of events, extremely unlikely. A Republican win of the presidency is practically impossible without Florida and I cannot at all see Trump outperforming Romney's numbers with Hispanics (lol) and Hillary will probably also do better with white women and the over 65s (which I believe you call seniors). As for Virginia I expect Trump to do better than a lot of you suspect in the Appalachian counties but yes he will get obliterated in the far more populated NOVA leaving him with virtually no chance of winning the state. Arizona will be a very good bet for investment for the Democrats and I think Kirkpatrick has a far better shot at unseating McCain than most on here think.
On the other hand I do think that the margins in states like IL, IN, OH, PA, MI, NY, NJ, WV, KY to remain fairly static, at least compared to the rest of the country, although I doubt Trump will win any except WV, KY and IN. I don't really think Democrats should kid themselves about Indiana, it's a very probable Trump win (see recent polls as well) with the probable the long term trend in that region being towards the GOP. For for similar reasons they shouldn't be complacent about Ohio, if you want my (non expert) opinion it will become lean R (similar to what I think will happen in Iowa) over the next few cycles as parts of the South and West trend Dem.
My current prediction is Clinton wins with the Obama map 2012 + NC and AZ. Though I think Utah is well worth watching for when the LDS leadership say.
And on Bernie Sanders, the evident runner up for the democratic nomination, while my politics (at least in Britain where the issues are different) are on the centre-right I do think a lot of the hatred for Bernie is unjustified. He is not a socialist (it really bemuses me as to why he describes himself as such) and he would probably fit fairly well into the mainstream of the UK Labour party. He certainly is nowhere near Jeremy Corbyn level nutty, though from reading Twitter at least a lot of his supporters appear to be.
Please feel free to comment and to disagree I am not an expert after all. Just please try to write responses in full sentences there is one person with a D-IL avatar whose level of English appears to be similar to that of a 10 year old... But still I'm perfectly happy for you to read my analysis to filth so long as you do it in an eloquent way
.
