Why is Kasich supposedly in a much better position than Rubio?
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  Why is Kasich supposedly in a much better position than Rubio?
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Author Topic: Why is Kasich supposedly in a much better position than Rubio?  (Read 342 times)
Nichlemn
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« on: March 15, 2016, 04:54:30 PM »

Even if he wins Ohio and Rubio loses Florida, as looks likely, he'd still be behind Rubio in both votes and delegates. As relatively poorly as Rubio has done, Kasich has done even worse, with not a single win to date. Also, his political positioning seems more out of tune with the median Republican than Rubio.

Today's likely results suggests to me nothing more than the fact that Kasich is more of a favourite son in his home state than Rubio is. But a favourite son in your home state is no path to the nomination.
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realisticidealist
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« Reply #1 on: March 15, 2016, 04:56:06 PM »

Rubio was hyped up and failed to live up to it. Kasich's yet to really reach the spotlight.
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Nichlemn
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« Reply #2 on: March 15, 2016, 05:00:35 PM »
« Edited: March 15, 2016, 05:03:00 PM by Nichlemn »

Kasich is better positioned than Rubio to fight Trump in the upcoming NE states where Cruz likely doesn't have a prayer.  That's mainly what this is about.  The establishment wants Rubio out so Cruz can have the West to himself, but they are terrified of what 1-on-1 Trump vs. Cruz would mean in the NE and CA.

So it's sort of an "optimal vote splitting" theory? Even if Rubio might in theory have a clearer path to the nomination, Kasich is better as a regional candidate who is less likely to split the vote in areas outside his region?

Also, Cruz has shown he can win in the NE with his Maine victory.
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Nichlemn
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« Reply #3 on: March 15, 2016, 05:01:07 PM »

Rubio was hyped up and failed to live up to it. Kasich's yet to really reach the spotlight.

Isn't it a bit late for "momentum" now?
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ag
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« Reply #4 on: March 15, 2016, 05:01:56 PM »

Rubio was hyped up and failed to live up to it. Kasich's yet to really reach the spotlight.

Isn't it a bit late for "momentum" now?

Not if all the momentum has to do is to get you to a contested convetion.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #5 on: March 15, 2016, 05:02:12 PM »

Obviously - Kasich can do battle with Trump in the Northeast, while Cruz does battle with Trump in the West and elsewhere. Rubio has no obvious base beyond D.C. insiders, and even they have cooled on him (as the D.C. caucus results should've indicated).
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Santander
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« Reply #6 on: March 15, 2016, 05:05:16 PM »

It's basically the expectations game. Rubio had money, establishment backing and a national profile but he failed in the early states and only survived because Jeb and Christie did even worse. His third-place victory speeches didn't help his cause. Despite having more money and more attention than Kasich, he finished dead last in some states where he should have at least gained delegates from.

Kasich is running a different kind of campaign altogether. He's running a NH-style campaign nationwide on a shoestring budget and hoping that the Ohio win will give him enough momentum to come into the convention with a few hundred delegates and a prayer at being the consensus nominee. It's a long shot, but he was always a long shot and this way, he'll escape the primaries with his reputation intact.
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Bigby
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« Reply #7 on: March 15, 2016, 05:08:50 PM »

Kasich is a human being.
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