AFter tonight, let's dispel with this notion that.....
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  AFter tonight, let's dispel with this notion that.....
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Author Topic: AFter tonight, let's dispel with this notion that.....  (Read 925 times)
JRP1994
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« on: February 27, 2016, 10:13:27 PM »

Nate Silver's forecast model has a pro-Clinton bias. 538 predicted a 38-point win.
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jfern
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« Reply #1 on: February 27, 2016, 10:51:53 PM »

Who cares? If you turn off smoothing on Huffington, it has a 48 point margin.
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Xing
xingkerui
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« Reply #2 on: February 27, 2016, 10:53:00 PM »

In this case, yes. In every other case, they underestimated Sanders, and they're assuming Clinton will overperform her polls in every state. Their pro-Rubio bias is even more obvious and ridiculous, though.
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JRP1994
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« Reply #3 on: February 28, 2016, 12:20:59 AM »

In this case, yes. In every other case, they underestimated Sanders, and they're assuming Clinton will overperform her polls in every state. Their pro-Rubio bias is even more obvious and ridiculous, though.

This. Along with their over-emphasis on the weight of endorsements in the GOP race.
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Lyin' Steve
SteveMcQueen
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« Reply #4 on: February 28, 2016, 12:25:20 AM »

Who cares? If you turn off smoothing on Huffington, it has a 48 point margin.

If you turn off smoothing then it's just the Clemson poll
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jfern
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« Reply #5 on: February 28, 2016, 12:29:12 AM »

Who cares? If you turn off smoothing on Huffington, it has a 48 point margin.

If you turn off smoothing then it's just the Clemson poll

Not entirely, since that was 50 points.
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Lyin' Steve
SteveMcQueen
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« Reply #6 on: February 28, 2016, 12:32:15 AM »

Who cares? If you turn off smoothing on Huffington, it has a 48 point margin.

If you turn off smoothing then it's just the Clemson poll

Not entirely, since that was 50 points.

Yet somehow without smoothing Sanders has exactly 14% despite no other poll having him below 30.
Something is off with their "less smoothing" option that is giving Hillary 62.4 instead of 64.
The point remains, though, that was an utterly silly thing to say and I think you should go lie down for the night.
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