Will Sanders be able to win any other Primaries after NH?

[Panhandle Progressive]

Since we all know he will win his home state of VT (which is a primary), I'm asking for you to exclude this one state while making a determination for this poll. Please also keep in mind that CO, MAINE, MN & WA all hold caucuses.

[The Other Castro]

He has decent shots at Massachusetts and Oklahoma on Super Tuesday. Later on, Ohio and especially Wisconsin are the next primaries that he can compete in. Should he succeed in making this a competitive race, there's a streak of Northeast states with primaries in a row that he could win including New York, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, and Rhode Island. Short answer: Yes, he will win other primaries beside NH and VT.

[Eraserhead]

He has decent shots at Massachusetts and Oklahoma on Super Tuesday. Later on, Ohio and especially Wisconsin are the next primaries that he can compete in. Should he succeed in making this a competitive race, there's a streak of Northeast states with primaries in a row that he could win including New York, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, and Rhode Island. Short answer: Yes, he will win other primaries beside NH and VT.

He'll never win New York unfortunately.

[BuckeyeNut]

He'll definitely never win in Ohio. Clinton should have a good ground game from NH on. Though if Sanders plays well in Nevada...

I am a little confused to the OP's delegate math in their signature, though maybe that isn't thread appropriate.

[Panhandle Progressive]

I am a little confused to the OP's delegate math in their signature, though maybe that isn't thread appropriate.

I can clarify the delegate math.
https://www.google.com/search?q=2016%20democratic%20delegates
http://www.cnn.com/election
According to these 2 sources, Hillary has someone between 385 and 411 total delegates (pledged and supers/unpledged) of 2,382 needed to win the nomination. She has so many delegates in total right now because of all the Democatic party members that have previously endorsed her. So she has something like 16 or 17% of the delegates needed when including prior endorsements and combining that with the delegates to be awarded from Iowa.

[Blue3]

There's a shot... but it's a stretch.

[Holmes]

Yes.

It won't be competitive all the way until June, though. Depending on how South Carolina, Super Tuesday, and March 15th go + superdelegates, Clinton could have so much insurmountable momentum that Sanders can't keep up anymore. But assuming the primary were 100% competitive until June, I think he'd have a shot at these states:

[Kleine Scheiße]

I think he has a shot in the map given above, plus maybe Montana, Oklahoma, and Nebraska. Possibly New Jersey but it's a stretch.

[Lief 🗽]

Yes.

It won't be competitive all the way until June, though. Depending on how South Carolina, Super Tuesday, and March 15th go + superdelegates, Clinton could have so much insurmountable momentum that Sanders can't keep up anymore. But assuming the primary were 100% competitive until June, I think he'd have a shot at these states:

Delaware has too many blacks and riches for Sanders to win, and Massachusetts is probably too much of a machine state for an insurgent to win, but otherwise this looks about right. He could probably win some more of the plains state as well, like Montana, Nebraska, maybe the Dakotas.

[The Other Castro]

The key date for me is March 22nd. If Sanders can survive Super Tuesday and the states up until the 22nd, there is a long streak of potential Sanders states that could compound momentum so strong that he can't be stopped.

March 22nd: Arizona, Idaho (Caucus), Utah
March 26th: Alaska (Caucus), Hawaii (Caucus), Washington (Caucus)
April 5th: Wisconsin
April 9th: Wyoming (caucus)

The real make or break moment in this primary race then could be New York, which might go for Sanders after such a string of victories.

[Holmes]

The same New York that Clinton was a Senator from for 8 years?

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

The same New York that Clinton was a Senator from for 8 years?

Yes, but she only represented Wall Street.

[The Other Castro]

The same New York that Clinton was a Senator from for 8 years?

Yes, I'm not convinced of the idea that New York is locked up for Clinton.

[Holmes]

The same New York that Clinton was a Senator from for 8 years?

Yes, but she only represented Wall Street.

[ElectionsGuy]

Oregon, Wisconsin, Massachusetts? Sure.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Rhode Island is a machine state too and the Democrats there are pretty conservative.
Same goes for Kansas and Nebraska. Clinton learned her lesson and has poured money in these caucuses, so Sanders won't run essentially unopposed like Obama did.

[bigedlb]

You should have added, "other than Vermont"

[SillyAmerican]

The real question: will Clinton have a lock by the time the convention rolls around, or can Sanders prevent the crowning? (I mean, even if Sanders doesn't "win" any other primaries, can he still remain close enough to prevent the run away result?)

By design, it's difficult for one candidate to develop a big delegate advantage under proportional representation, especially when there are two strong, well financed candidates competing for the nomination. So even if he fails to "win" outright, if Sanders continues to run fairly strong in various contests, things will remain interesting...

[Panhandle Progressive]

The real question: will Clinton have a lock by the time the convention rolls around, or can Sanders prevent the crowning? (I mean, even if Sanders doesn't "win" any other primaries, can he still remain close enough to prevent the run away result?)

By design, it's difficult for one candidate to develop a big delegate advantage under proportional representation, especially when there are two strong, well financed candidates competing for the nomination. So even if he fails to "win" outright, if Sanders continues to run fairly strong in various contests, things will remain interesting...

I'm a a firm believer that the media narrative will change drastically on Super Tuesday and Bernie will become yesterday's news. By no later than the middle of March it will be obvious that Hillary is truly inevitable and Bernie has no chance to become the nominee.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Hopefully.

[indysaff]

Yes definitely, especially if national polls are showing the race closing a bit.

[Panhandle Progressive]

Yes definitely, especially if national polls are showing the race closing a bit.

They actually aren't showing that. Only 1 poll from 1 pollster is showing this. Here is the current national average:

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-national-democratic-primary
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/2016_democratic_presidential_nomination-3824.html
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/national-primary-polls/democratic/

[indysaff]

Her numbers have slowly dropped and his have slowly gained. I don't believe he's only down by two, but I still think nationally his numbers are slowing improving. So yes, I think he can win a few more states outside NH.