Is Sanders' coalition basically Obama '08 primary minus the blacks?

[nclib]

Though I'd imagine Sanders won't do nearly as well with white liberals as Obama did.

[Ljube]

I think Obama '12 minus the blacks.

[nclib]

I meant in each primary.

[Asian Nazi]

It skews quite a bit younger but generally yes

[Ljube]

I meant in each primary.

Ah, I see. Probably yes.

[Bojack Horseman]

More than likely.

[ElectionsGuy]

Sanders is actually doing better among white voters than Obama was in 2008 when you consider that he's getting 40% of the primary vote nationwide and less than 20% of blacks, but that fundamentally is Sanders' problem. White millenials + very liberal white older voters isn't enough to win in many states. If racial minorities turn out in the Democratic primary something like this...

Black: 80% Clinton, 20% Sanders
Latino: 65% Clinton, 35% Sanders
Other: 60% Clinton, 40% Sanders

Sanders needs 70% of the white vote for a majority, nearly impossible when olds and women are backing Clinton by so much.

[Asian Nazi]

I haven't seen actual numbers on this, but I'd guess that Sanders is polling quite a bit better than Obama did with Jews in the '08 primary.  Not just because Sanders is one, but because many Jews did not trust Obama initially for numerous reasons.

[Figueira]

I suspect he's picked up a few of Clinton's supporters from 2008, not to mention some of Edwards's supporters. Also he has a lot of nineties babies such as myself who couldn't vote in 2008.

[Mike Thick]

I'd say that that's accurate, plus some whites and minus some Latinos.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Bernie is doing better with Hispanics.  He could win California.

[Famous Mortimer]

Minus a majority of Blacks. Plus a minority of working class Whites.

[Boston Bread]

If polls are any indication, Sander's coalition has taken a decent chuck of southern whites who would have voted Clinton.

[Camaro33]

Sanders = Obama '12 - majority of blacks - noteworthy number of age 35+ democrats/liberals + notable number of millennial whites.

Basically, the Sanders coalition would have been slightly bigger than Mitt Romney's based on 2012 numbers.

[King of Kensington]

This article suggests that it's not, and that Hillary has a more upscale base and Bernie a more working class base.

https://www.jacobinmag.com/2016/01/bernie-sanders-democratic-president-primary-new-hampshire-iowa-caucus/

To what extent are college students skewing the less than 30K earners though, I don't know.

Also, HRC doesn't seem to be running a campaign so targeted towards the white working class this time.

[Kevin]

I wouldn't discount Sanders among Blacks and Hispanics just yet. If he wins in Iowa on Monday and later on in NH I expect him to become a bigger part of the discussion with these voting groups.

Also something interesting I've noticed recently is maybe Hillary doesn't have a big as a lead among white working class voters left in the Democratic Party? From what I've seen Sanders seems to be doing very well among the younger members of the WWC.

[Asian Nazi]

I wouldn't discount Sanders among Blacks and Hispanics just yet. If he wins in Iowa on Monday and later on in NH I expect him to become a bigger part of the discussion with these voting groups.

Also something interesting I've noticed recently is maybe Hillary doesn't have a big as a lead among white working class voters left in the Democratic Party? From what I've seen Sanders seems to be doing very well among the younger members of the WWC.

The generation gap is larger than either the racial or income gap from what I've seen.