IA-Quinnipiac:Trump 31% Cruz 29% Rubio 13% Carson 7% Paul 5% Bush 4% Christie 3%

[Mr. Morden]

Quinnipiac poll of Iowa, conducted Jan. 18-24:

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/iowa/release-detail?ReleaseID=2318

Trump 31%
Cruz 29%
Rubio 13%
Carson 7%
Paul 5%
Bush 4%
Christie 3%
Huckabee 2%
Fiorina 1%
Kasich 1%
Gilmore, Santorum 0%

[The Other Castro]

This looks pretty much exactly how I think the results will turn out.

[Lief 🗽]

No change from their last poll, which was also a 31-29 margin.

[The Other Castro]

Also, congrats Paul.

[Mr. Morden]

Who leads among…?
Tea Party: Cruz
Evangelicals: Cruz
very conservative: Cruz
somewhat conservative: Trump
moderate: Trump
men: Trump
women: Cruz/Trump tie
income <$50k: Trump
income $50-100k: Cruz
income >$100k: Trump
age 18-44: Cruz/Trump tie
age 45-64: Cruz
age 65+: Trump
never caucused before: Trump
have caucused before: Cruz
most important issue = economy/jobs: Trump
most important issue = terrorism: Cruz
most important issue = foreign policy: Trump
most important quality = shares values: Cruz
most important quality = strong leader: Trump
most important quality = honest/trustworthy: Cruz

Huge ideological gap in the race with respect to support for Cruz…

very conservative voters:
Cruz 49%
Trump 29%
Carson 6%
Rubio 5%
Paul 4%

moderate voters:
Trump 37%
Rubio 19%
Paul 10%
Bush 7%
Christie 6%
Cruz 6%

Is there anyone you would definitely *not* support? (multiple responses allowed, so adds up to more than 100%)

Bush 24%
Trump 24%
Kasich 15%
Christie 14%
Cruz 12%
Fiorina 10%
Paul 10%
Rubio 10%
Gilmore 9%
Huckabee 9%
Santorum 9%
Carson 6%

Moderates are both the most likely group to support Trump (37%) and the most likely group to say that they’d never support him (33%).  There seems to be a pretty stark division between the pro-Trump and anti-Trump moderates within the GOP (which we’ve also seen in other polls).

[yankeesfan]

Just a reminder that last time Quinnipiac released a poll, this was the same result, and Selzer released a Cruz +3 shortly after

[Cruzcrew]

Rand is in

[Eraserhead]

I guess we'll get Democratic numbers tomorrow.

[RFayette 🇻🇦]

Cruz might be benefiting from Carson's final fade.  I don't think it will be enough, though.

I'm praying Trump has a crappy ground game, enough to cinch it for Cruz.  We shall see.

[Reginald]

never caucused before: Trump
have caucused before: Cruz

To expand on this:

Cruz leads Trump 31-28 among previous caucus-goers.
Trump leads Cruz 38-25 among the never-caucused.

[RI]

never caucused before: Trump
have caucused before: Cruz

To expand on this:

Cruz leads Trump 31-28 among previous caucus-goers.
Trump leads Cruz 38-25 among the never-caucused.

Sure, but there's never been a case where the electorate of a competitive caucus was entirely people who had caucused before.

[A Perez]

I guess we'll get Democratic numbers tomorrow.

Correct.

[The Other Castro]

I guess we'll get Democratic numbers tomorrow.

Their last poll had Sanders up 5 in Iowa, so if he's not leading in this next one it is a very bad sign.