Guess the IA/NH GOP county maps.

[Senator Cris]

How will the IA/NH GOP caucus/primary county maps look like?

[The Free North]

Im particularly curious to see how Jefferson county IA votes in the 'pub election considering their pacifist tendencies and love for (before at least) Ron Paul.

[Crumpets]

Yellow - Cruz
Orange - Trump
Green - Rubio

[Bismarck]

That seems realistic. Good Job Crumpet

[Mr. Morden]

Yellow - Cruz
Orange - Trump
Green - Rubio

So in Iowa...Cruz = Santorum 2012, Trump = Paul 2012, Rubio = a weaker Romney 2012?

[Crumpets]

Yellow - Cruz
Orange - Trump
Green - Rubio

So in Iowa...Cruz = Santorum 2012, Trump = Paul 2012, Rubio = a weaker Romney 2012?

That was pretty much my thinking. Cruz is kind of a mashup of Santorum '12 and Huckabee '08.

[Progressive]

How will the IA/NH GOP caucus/primary county maps look like?

How do you fill in the maps?

[Rockefeller GOP]

I'm really not sure ... But I don't think Trump will win every county in NH, and I don't think Cruz will win Iowa City and Cedar Rapids...

[Nyvin]

Pink - Rand Paul
Orange - Donald Trump

Something like that.    The western/northern part of the state is a lot more libertarian.    The southeast votes pretty mainstream.

I probably don't know enough about Iowa to judge.

[Crumpets]

How will the IA/NH GOP caucus/primary county maps look like?

How do you fill in the maps?

I just did copy and paste into MS paint and used the color scheme from the predictions map.

[RI]

Here's my guess as of now with the assumption that Iowa breaks down about 35% Cruz, 28% Trump, 13% Rubio



Trump picks up most of the Perry/Gingrich/Bachmann 2012 crowd with some of the Edwards 2008 group thrown in.

[Averroës Nix]

Iowa

  ~45% Cruz
  ~25% Trump
  ~15% Rubio
  ~10% Carson
    ~5% Scattering

New Hampshire

  ~35% Christie
  ~30% Trump
  ~15% Cruz
  ~10% Rubio
  ~10% Scattering

[Mr. Morden]

Yellow - Cruz
Orange - Trump
Green - Rubio

So in Iowa...Cruz = Santorum 2012, Trump = Paul 2012, Rubio = a weaker Romney 2012?

That was pretty much my thinking. Cruz is kind of a mashup of Santorum '12 and Huckabee '08.

I see.  I'm not sure to what extent Trump's voters will overlap with Paul's voters.  It's true that in most polls Trump does a bit better with youngs than olds, but it's not nearly as much of an age gap as Paul had in 2012.  The bigger gap this time seems to be education level.  See the latest from 538-land, for example:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-key-to-the-gop-race-the-diploma-divide/

And yet, I would have naively expected some overlap between lower education level and high religiosity, yet it's Cruz who is doing best among Evangelicals.  So I'm not really sure how to pin down Trump's voters as analogs of voters from past races.  I guess he'd be strongest in counties that simultaneously had fewer Huckabee/Santorum voters and fewer people with a college degree.  No idea what that means for the map though.

[VPH]

Cruz
Trump
Marco Rubio
Chris Christie
Rand Paul