Debates are not important. Look at how Fiorina dominated polls that she won the last one. Look at her polling today. Also, if you watch the debate instead of the World Series, you are a bad citizen.
While it is only late October, the holidays are fast approaching and once Thanksgiving hits, all political news that isn't earth-shaking will lose mindshare. If he's going to have any chance, Bush needs a major comeback before February. The only such windows are the next four weeks, and the post-holiday weeks. Of the two windows, I think this one is better. Solid performances tonight and on Nov 10th could easily make him a top candidate again. Clear failures will probably end his campaign before the new year.