What would happen after a conservative best case scenario 2016 election?
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  What would happen after a conservative best case scenario 2016 election?
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Author Topic: What would happen after a conservative best case scenario 2016 election?  (Read 798 times)
Orser67
Junior Chimp
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« on: October 30, 2015, 03:30:53 AM »

Let's say hardcore conservatives basically have a best case scenario in 2016. Ted Cruz wins the presidency and Republicans win 60 Senate seats in 2016 (CO, NV, CA, WA, OR, CT) and then Joe Manchin switches parties. They also pick up ten seats in the House. McConnell, Ryan, and Cruz proceed to work pretty well together in keeping Congressional Republicans united and Cruz is successful in pushing a lot of his priorities. What legislation would the Republican Party pass? What else would President Cruz do?
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Orser67
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1 on: October 30, 2015, 05:31:55 AM »

I would think:

-Probably at least one of Scalia or Kennedy would step down, replaced by a conservative
-Major tax cuts, though the centrist Senate Republicans might prevent it from being everything Cruz would want
-Obamacare repeal
-Repeal of at least parts of Dodd-Frank, including the abolition of the CFPB
-Huge cuts to Medicaid and SCHIP
-Huge cuts in federal funding for education
-Raising the Social Security retirement age and a minor-to-moderate cut in benefits
-A national right-to-work law
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Mr. Reactionary
blackraisin
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« Reply #2 on: October 30, 2015, 10:19:02 PM »

Highlights
Repeal Obamacare
Eliminate CFPB
20 week abortion ban
National Concealed Carry Permits
National Right to Work
Iran Sanctions
E-Verify
No funds to sanctuary cities
National Guard on border
Much of the Department of Commerce would be dissolved
Medicaid direct to HSAs
Keystone Pipeline
Undo Net Neutrality
Watered down CPP for CO2
Cost Benefit Analyses for EPA regulations
Federal preemption of Insurance laws
Tax rates and deductions drop
Eliminate estate tax
Caps on medical malpractice claims in federal courts
More unilateral Free Trade Pacts
Troops on the ground in Iraq
Supreme Court Justice Paul Clement
Reagan on money
A cybersecurity bill of some form
Random military spending increases on crap
Splitting the 9th Circuit in 2

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CrabCake
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« Reply #3 on: October 30, 2015, 11:44:10 PM »

Nothing. The senate hates Cruz far too much

This is a good guess, but as much as they hate Cruz, they probably like their own pay checks even more and an entire party mobilising against their own President's agenda will not be rewarded by either primary or general voters.

At a guess, the future of the IRS will be put into question. I assume it would be gone in its current form. Perhaps cruz will accept a replacement with reduced staff and power. A flat tax would be implemented, possibly higher than Cruz would like. Estate tax abolished. Corporation tax and CGT slashed. The EPA, Edication and Commerce and Interior would follow suit and be similarly defunded and defanged. The interior's federal lands will be sold off or passed off to states. States will be forced to implement vouchers and public schools would be forced to charterise. EPA would lose the authority to regulate carbon, Mercury and other such nasties and be effectively completely neutered. A handful of social issues would be pushed through - gun laws, religious freedom, abortion bans etc. funding of that wall thing, bans on so-called sanctuary cities and reversal of Obama's executive orders on migration.

In foreign policy, it's all a bit more mysterious. Cruz is not a Paulite nor is he a classic neocon. He has flip-flopped on trade but I donby he'lol make a move against FTA building. Similarly on policy towards Fussia and China I don't think he'll change much from Obama's policy beyond using angrier rhetoric - it's very hard for politicians to change State Department or Pentagon minds, who usually think in scales way longer than electoral cycles. perhaps the military brass will be rewarded more hardware in Eastetn Europe, like all those expensive nuclear defence programs that Obama cancelled. Even the iRan Deal will be hard to walk back on. It all depends if the US's allies end up thinking Cruz is a smart wily guy or merely a creep that can be ignored.
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