IA-Quinnipiac:Carson 28% Trump 20% Rubio 13% Cruz 10% Paul 6% Bush 5% Fiorina 5%

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Trump needs to get Herman Cain, A SUCCESSFUL JOB CREATING BUSINESSMAN WHO ACTUALLY UNDERSTANDS THE ECONOMY, to stand next to him at the rest of his rallies and make a big deal about his endorsement.

[Skye]

Shocking poll.

[Bigby]

Also, that double-digit Rubio is glorious. Drop out so Rubio can have 18%, Bush.

[JonathanSwift]

In case anyone is forgetting, Iowa voted for George H. W. Bush in 1980, Bob Dole in 1988, Mike Huckabee in 2008 and Rick Santorum in 2012. If Trump is losing Iowa to Carson, then history suggests that The Donald is right on track to be the Republican nominee.

[Higgs]

Paul at 6%, never thought I'd see his numbers that high again.

[Likely Voter]

It is no surprise that Carson is in a strong position in IA, but Quinnipiac has had some weird polls this year, so let's see what the new Bloomberg/DMR/Seltzer poll says. Trump is lucky that today was all about Benghazi, so this Quinni poll hasn't got much notice, but two major polls in a row would definitely get coverage.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Here is the polling trendline for Iowa.

Going up:
Carson
Trump
Rubio
Paul
Cruz

Stagnating:
Bush
Jindal
Santorum
Graham
Christie
Kasich

Going down:
Fiorina
Huckabee

[Mr. Morden]

Looks like the Dem. numbers from this poll will be released at 7am Eastern, which is just under 6 hours from now:

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/

I'm assuming that the Selzer Iowa poll will release their Republican #s this morning as well, but I don't know for sure.  Can't find any confirmation of that.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Looks like the Dem. numbers from this poll will be released at 7am Eastern, which is just under 6 hours from now:

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/

I'm assuming that the Selzer Iowa poll will release their Republican #s this morning as well, but I don't know for sure.  Can't find any confirmation of that.

Considering recent QU polls, I'd expect Hillary with a smallish lead, maybe 5-7%

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Dem numbers

Clinton - 51% (+11)
Sanders - 40% (-1)
O'Malley - 4%

First debate - 48% watched - did best?
Clinton - 62%
Sanders - 31%
O'Malley - 3%

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/iowa/release-detail?ReleaseID=2292

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ben Carson certainly will be a better nominee than Trump. Trump has been overconfident thinking that he has all but wrapped up the race already.

[defe07]

Paul at 6%, never thought I'd see his numbers that high again.

I know, right? Maybe this good news can help those weary of our ground game in Iowa to try to go up!!

[Likely Voter]

It will be interesting to see how Trump reacts to falling behind in IA. Traditional consultants (if he had any) would probably advise him to focus on NH and SC and try to be the only guy with two wins going into Super Tuesday, but can his ego handle starting off with a loss?

Also, now we will find out how real the Trump campaign is. Club for Growth is spending money in IA on anti-Trump ads and they are using this as proof they can hurt him and soliciting more money. Other outside mainstream people will also see that Trump can be hurt. Other candidates are ramping up their paid media and ground games. Free media is not going to be enough for Trump going forward. The time will come very soon where Trump will have to spend $10-20M+ of his own money (to date he has only spent $100k and lent his campaign $1.8M, but the loan can always be repaid).

[Mr. Morden]

Another interesting tidbit from the crosstabs: As we’ve seen elsewhere, Trump gets somewhat more support among moderates than he gets among conservatives.  He’s got 22% of moderates, and just 16% support among “very conservative” voters.

However, there’s a much larger group of moderates who say that they’d never vote for Trump.  The fraction of moderates who say they would “definitely not” vote for Trump is 45%, much larger than the number among very conservative voters.