Dems win House in '16 - Who's the Speaker?

[NeverAgain]

Let's say Boehner's resignation creates a significant ripple in the Congress. Louie Gohmert and Kevin McCarthy battle it out for the Speakership. Obama is heralded for his heroic actions in (insert cool Obama stunt here) and approval ratings spike to in the mid 60's. Dems win the House by a slim margin 219s. Would Pelosi continue as Speaker, or would they get a fresh face?

[Nyvin]

Probably still Pelosi. 

[Vosem]

The correct answer is Pelosi, so long as she has not resigned/retired by then (as seems unlikely).

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Its certainly not out the question if Trump is the nominee; and the govt shutsdown and the Dems win the exact states they did in 2012.

Its certainly in the realm of plausibility with the Senate lineup as well with Strickland, Murphy, & Kate McGinty doing so well.

Pelosi will be Speaker once again and all well that ends well with Donald Trump.

[Bacon King]

Nancy Pelosi's number one goal for the remainder of her life is to prevent Steny Hoyer from ever being elected Speaker, which in practice means that Pelosi will be the top leader of House Democrats until he leaves office

[smoltchanov]

Pelosi. But i consider this scenario as highly unlikely...

[Hydera]

Their not going to win the house.

End of story.

Let's say Boehner's resignation creates a significant ripple in the Congress. Louie Gohmert and Kevin McCarthy battle it out for the Speakership. Obama is heralded for his heroic actions in (insert cool Obama stunt here) and approval ratings spike to in the mid 60's. Dems win the House by a slim margin 219is. Would Pelosi continue as Speaker, or would they get a fresh face?

Its strange when republicans sound sane and the crimson avatars and those who haven't changed to crimson avatars(Like you OP), start making fantasy imaginations.

[NeverAgain]

Their not going to win the house.

End of story.

Let's say Boehner's resignation creates a significant ripple in the Congress. Louie Gohmert and Kevin McCarthy battle it out for the Speakership. Obama is heralded for his heroic actions in (insert cool Obama stunt here) and approval ratings spike to in the mid 60's. Dems win the House by a slim margin 219is. Would Pelosi continue as Speaker, or would they get a fresh face?

Its strange when republicans sound sane and the crimson avatars and those who haven't changed to crimson avatars(Like you OP), start making fantasy imaginations.

Are you high?

[Kingpoleon]

I'm predicting that they collapse in this scenario and split between Progressives and Democrats, refusing a majority with the Democratic bloating.

[Vega]

I'm predicting that they collapse in this scenario and split between Progressives and Democrats, refusing a majority with the Democratic bloating.

And, if that happens, the Republicans pick one of their own for speaker. I doubt the Democrats would allow that to happen.

[Bacon King]

I'm predicting that they collapse in this scenario and split between Progressives and Democrats, refusing a majority with the Democratic bloating.

That is a silly assertion and you are a silly person. There is zero chance the House Democratic Caucus would for some reason split in two, especially for literally no reason at all other than "bloating" (??) especially if it denies them a majority in the process.

"Yes I could have a subcommittee chairmanship, but instead I will join another party because my current one is just too bloated!!" said no one in Congress ever.

And, if that happens, the Republicans pick one of their own for speaker

Actually, fun fact, the Speaker requires 50% of votes to be elected, so what would happen in this silly hypothetical scenario is that the "Democrats" and "Progressives" would elect a compromise candidate and therefore defeat the entire point of splitting in the first place

[Blue3]

Pelosi, easily.

[Kingpoleon]

I'm predicting that they collapse in this scenario and split between Progressives and Democrats, refusing a majority with the Democratic bloating.

And, if that happens, the Republicans pick one of their own for speaker. I doubt the Democrats would allow that to happen.

Establishmentarians would gladly support Rodgers in order to fight their Progressive flank back on.

The fact of the matter is that gerrymandering means an insane amount of grassroots and establishment Democrats would be elected, heavily dividing the party at the very least and giving Pelosi an unstable majority.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Pelosi is still Honorable Minority Leader and has unanimous support among Blk and Latino caucus. It were blue dogs like Harold Ford jr and Health Shuler that have left politics altogether that objected.

Against the united Tea Party caucus, she will be Speaker, or she would step aside for Steny Hoyer. And third choice will be Xavier Beracera. Who hopes to succeed Pelosi in House.

[Nyvin]

I'm predicting that they collapse in this scenario and split between Progressives and Democrats, refusing a majority with the Democratic bloating.

And, if that happens, the Republicans pick one of their own for speaker. I doubt the Democrats would allow that to happen.

Establishmentarians would gladly support Rodgers in order to fight their Progressive flank back on.

The fact of the matter is that gerrymandering means an insane amount of grassroots and establishment Democrats would be elected, heavily dividing the party at the very least and giving Pelosi an unstable majority.

You are talking nonsense. 

[Skill and Chance]

I'm predicting that they collapse in this scenario and split between Progressives and Democrats, refusing a majority with the Democratic bloating.

And, if that happens, the Republicans pick one of their own for speaker. I doubt the Democrats would allow that to happen.

Establishmentarians would gladly support Rodgers in order to fight their Progressive flank back on.

The fact of the matter is that gerrymandering means an insane amount of grassroots and establishment Democrats would be elected, heavily dividing the party at the very least and giving Pelosi an unstable majority.

Yes, a Dem majority this decade would necessarily include 25+ Dems in R+ PVI seats. Now, if it's 1948 all over again and Dems gain like 80 seats, Pelosi would obviously become Speaker (and would be hailed as a hero in Dem circles).  But if it's a narrow Dem majority, we probably got there because Extremist Weirdo beat McCarthy because Tea Party support coalesced in the leadership election.  Speaker Weirdo then shuts down the government twice in less than a year and makes Akin level comments about "Planned Parenthood subsidizing those dirty little sluts" every 6 weeks for all of 2016.  The economy remains meh, but enough people in EVEN to R+5 seats go along with Speaker Weirdo that there's a major suburban backlash and Dems get to about 220 seats.  The new CoC oriented Dems may be nervous enough about Pelosi and establishment R's anxious enough to dislodge Mr. Weirdo may have enough votes to prop up an experienced moderate Dem (e.g. Colin Peterson or Tim Walz) in a coalition arrangement.  I don't think that scenario is particularly farfetched at all.

Should also note that one of my major long run questions is, assuming we continue with the 90% chance R House, 75% chance D President, toss up Senate dynamic for the long haul post-Obama, will we see a group of 50 or so House R's who are ready to make deals that give the Dem presidents 60-70% of what they want develop like we did with House Dems during 1952-92?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Its still a slim chance if Trump is nominated. His antics on immigration is devestating to long term GOP overhaul.

A 272 map will give Dems measurable gains. But, an exceedingly good night for Dems will make significant gains in House.

[Figueira]

Their not going to win the house.

End of story.

Let's say Boehner's resignation creates a significant ripple in the Congress. Louie Gohmert and Kevin McCarthy battle it out for the Speakership. Obama is heralded for his heroic actions in (insert cool Obama stunt here) and approval ratings spike to in the mid 60's. Dems win the House by a slim margin 219is. Would Pelosi continue as Speaker, or would they get a fresh face?

Its strange when republicans sound sane and the crimson avatars and those who haven't changed to crimson avatars(Like you OP), start making fantasy imaginations.

I don't understand this attitude. It's pretty hard for the Democrats to win the House, but it's not literally impossible.

Anyway, the answer to the question is Pelosi, barring shocking unforeseen events.

[Torie]

It's possible for the Dems to win the House, but unless the Dem Potus candidate gets close to a 10 point margin for reasons that are not mostly related to the Pub candidate having rather acute personal flaws, as opposed to the overall partisan climate, it's very remote because a few Pub incumbents in seats that McCain carried would need to be defeated. Few Pub incumbents are so bad, or out of step with their districts (e.g. Michelle Bachman), that they will run behind the Pub Potus candidate. Typically run of the mill incumbents run about 3 points ahead of partisan baseline.

[Skill and Chance]

It's possible for the Dems to win the House, but unless the Dem Potus candidate gets close to a 10 point margin for reasons that are not mostly related to the Pub candidate having rather acute personal flaws, as opposed to the overall partisan climate, it's very remote because a few Pub incumbents in seats that McCain carried would need to be defeated. Few Pub incumbents are so bad, or out of step with their districts (e.g. Michelle Bachman), that they will run behind the Pub Potus candidate. Typically run of the mill incumbents run about 3 points ahead of partisan baseline.

I actually think it's most likely in an R President midterm, particularly if the R government has done something to set off elderly people.

[Torie]

It's possible for the Dems to win the House, but unless the Dem Potus candidate gets close to a 10 point margin for reasons that are not mostly related to the Pub candidate having rather acute personal flaws, as opposed to the overall partisan climate, it's very remote because a few Pub incumbents in seats that McCain carried would need to be defeated. Few Pub incumbents are so bad, or out of step with their districts (e.g. Michelle Bachman), that they will run behind the Pub Potus candidate. Typically run of the mill incumbents run about 3 points ahead of partisan baseline.

I actually think it's most likely in an R President midterm, particularly if the R government has done something to set off elderly people.

Agreed.