R-Money

[NHI]

BREAKING NEWS: MITT ROMNEY RUNNING FOR PRESIDENT

Sept. 2015 -- Mitt Romney announcing his campaign in Salt Lake City, Utah.

"For six years we've been fed the promise of leadership by a President without a track record, without a resume and we've seen the results, it has not been good. The result, a sluggish economy, a health care debacle called Obamacare, emboldened foes and shaken allies. Too many are wondering if America's best days are behind her, if our children will be forced to live in a world of scarcity and few opportunities, well I utterly reject that view. This is a great time for us to be living, this country is going to turn around, and how it's going to happen is with a change of leadership at the top. A new direction. A new president.

I would not be here if I did not think I could help this country, if I did not think I could turn it around. I believe I have the skills and the tested experience to turn this country around. This election is not about me, or any Republican candidate or Hillary Clinton or Joe Biden, it's not about Barack Obama -- it's about the future. It's about what kind of tomorrow we as Americans can build together. I believe our future is brighter than our past and though these are uncertain times, with the right ideas and leadership in the White House, America is going to come roaring back..."

[NHI]

1. Biden his Time

Joe Biden made his intentions clear right after Labor Day. He announced his campaign for President in his home state of Delaware, while he did not mention Hillary Clinton by name his entrance into the race was a clear shot at the Democratic frontrunner and the questions surrounding her candidacy. Biden embraced the mantle of the happy warrior, taking on the Republicans, and ensuring Democrats he was Obama's true heir and was best positioned to win the election. "To keep the progress going, I ask for your support in my campaign to become our nation's next President."

Biden waited until after Labor Day, some thought he entered too late, but Biden remained confident. Immediately after delivering his speech, he flew to South Carolina for a rally in Columbia with Democratic supporters. The large crowd, while not Sanders level showed that many Democrats were choosing to ride with Biden. The Vice President pledged to serve a single term, and while he looked to compete in Iowa and New Hampshire, he chose to extensively focus on South Carolina, the third state in the primary. The logic, was Biden's late entry made it difficult to build a ground game in Iowa and New Hampshire, given the head start both Clinton and Sanders had in both places. He would save millions and build up an organization in the state. The general thought was Clinton would win Iowa, Sanders New Hampshire and South Carolina would be the decider, giving Biden the perfect opportunity to seize the momentum.

Not Meant to Be

Rick Perry was the first candidate on the Republican side to dropout. Poor fundraising and being relegated to the Kid's Debate Table, as well as taking on Donald Trump ruined his campaign and forced him to step aside.

Cracks in the Bush Armor

Jeb Bush's inability to surpass Donald Trump, coupled with his lackluster campaign performance caused many Republicans to panic and start looking elsewhere. Many insiders believed Bush's horrible campaign proved the springboard for Mitt Romney. The former 2012 opted against a third run for president in early 2015, many believing the prospective field, which included Jeb Bush caused Romeny to reconsider. But, Bush's poor campaign and the rise of Donald Trump, Romney saw an opening. Donald Trump could not be the Republican nominee. Jeb Bush was unable to cope with him and his presence in the race was diminishing the other candidates like Chris Christie and Marco Rubio.

The Republican Party in free fall Romney saw an opening to pull the party back from the Donald Trump abyss and rally the the base enough to defeat Hillary or whoever the Democrats put up as a candidate.

Gallup Tracking Poll: Pre-Romney

Donald Trump: 24%

Ben Carson: 10%

Jeb Bush: 9%

Scott Walker: 7%

Carly Fiorina: 6%

Marco Rubio: 5%

John Kasich: 5%

Ted Cruz: 4%

Rand Paul: 4%

Mike Huckabee: 3%

Chris Christie: 2%

Other: 2%

Undecided: 19%

Gallup Tracking Poll: Post-Biden Entrance (+Clinton +19)

Hillary Clinton: 45%

Bernie Sanders: 26%

Joe Biden: 16%

Martin O'Malley: 1%
Jim Webb: 1%
Lincoln Chaffee: 0%
Undecided: 11%

Gallup Tracking Poll: Post-Romney Entrance (Trump +5)

Donald Trump: 21%

Mitt Romney: 15%

Ben Carson: 9%
Jeb Bush: 8%
Carly Fiorina: 7%
Scott Walker: 5%
Marco Rubio: 4%
John Kasich: 4%
Ted Cruz: 3%
Mike Huckabee: 3%
Rand Paul: 2%
Chris Christie: 1%
Other: 1%
Undecided: 18%

New Hampshire Primary: Republican Primary Top 5 (Trump +7)

Donald Trump: 26%

Mitt Romney: 19%

John Kasich: 13%

Carly Fiorina: 9%

Marco Rubio: 7%

Other/Undecided: 26%

New Hampshire Primary: Democrats (Sanders +6)

Bernie Sanders: 40%

Hillary Clinton: 34%
Joe Biden: 15%
Jim Webb: 1%
Martin O'Malley: 1%
Lincoln Chaffee: 0%
Undecided: 9%

[Maxwell]

It seems to me that Jeb Bush would take a rather significant hit if Romney entered the race.

[Figueira]

It seems to me that Jeb Bush would take a rather significant hit if Romney entered the race.

Indeed. Similarly, I have trouble seeing Paul of all people losing half of his support to Romney. Then again, he could be declining for other reasons, or it could be a polling error.

Please continue, though. This is an interesting TL.

[NHI]

2. Rand Strikes Back

Rand Paul refused to let his one shot at the Presidency go down in flames. In the wake of Mitt Romney's reentrance into the race, the Kentucky Senator took to blasting the former Republican Nominee as a "figure of the past". Paul lambasted Romney for running a third time, believing a second Romney nomination would lead the party to a third straight loss. "We cannot be the party of the future if we keep going back to the failed candidates of the past. It'd be like saying boy Richard Nixon was a good man, let's nominate him one for time." Paul made a strong play for New Hampshire, believing it to be the key to his electoral success.

Rand Paul stumps in Concord, NH, touting himself as "new kind of Republican" able to win.

WMUR NH Republican Primary Poll: Top 6 Oct. 1, 2015 (Trump +1)

Donald Trump: 22% (-4)

Mitt Romney: 21% (+2)

Carly Fiorina: 11% (+2)

Rand Paul: 9% (+4)
John Kasich: 8% (-5)
Marco Rubio: 7% (+/- 0)
Undecided/Other: 22%

WMUR NH Democratic Primary Poll: Oct. 1, 2015 (Sanders +8)

Bernie Sanders: 40% (+/- 0)

Hillary Clinton: 32% (-2)

Joe Biden: 20% (+1)

Martin O'Malley: 1% (+/-0)
Jim Webb: 1% (+/-0)
Lincoln Chaffee: 0% (+/-0)
Undecided/Other: 6%

[Abraham Reagan]

#ISTILLBELIEVEINAMERICA

To be honest, I hope the election goes pretty much exactly this way, at least so far.