Who is more likely to be the GOP nominee: Battle of the Atlases

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Just to see how out of touch Atlas is with reality - Trump has about 3x the chance. Even with his unfavorables, a few WTA plus high totals in early proportional states could get him to the finish line. Still waiting to see what Kasich can win outside NH. and with Carly surging, he may not get another chance to debate. Obviously Trump

[Sumner 1868]

Trump without question. Nobody likes lukewarms.

[Donald Trump 2016 !]

Reince Preibus is more likely to personally ask President Obama to assassinate Trump before he'd ever allow Trump to become the nominee of the Republican Party.

Kasich.

[Kingpoleon]

Just to see how out of touch Atlas is with reality - Trump has about 3x the chance. Even with his unfavorables, a few WTA plus high totals in early proportional states could get him to the finish line. Still waiting to see what Kasich can win outside NH. and with Carly surging, he may not get another chance to debate. Obviously Trump.

Let's see - the experienced campaign of the bellwether's Governor, or a reality show businessman who is like Herman Cain, but makes Cain look like a University President? Gee, I don't know.

[Sumner 1868]

Reince Preibus is more likely to personally ask President Obama to assassinate Trump before he'd ever allow Trump to become the nominee of the Republican Party.

Kasich.

I doubt that Republican primary voters would care to have their voice so disregarded.

[Donald Trump 2016 !]

Reince Preibus is more likely to personally ask President Obama to assassinate Trump before he'd ever allow Trump to become the nominee of the Republican Party.

Kasich.

I doubt that Republican primary voters would care to have their voice so disregarded.

You're assuming the Trump surge lasts all the way to the convention which is 11 months from now. That's a pretty ballsy bet.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Just to see how out of touch Atlas is with reality - Trump has about 3x the chance.

Based exclusively on early polls?

Based exclusively on Kasich being a total joke with little appeal whereas Trump is leading polls 5 months from Iowa, yes. I am not saying Trump is the favorite, but he at least has a chance, yes.

[Donald Trump 2016 !]

Just to see how out of touch Atlas is with reality - Trump has about 3x the chance.

Based exclusively on early polls?

Based exclusively on Kasich being a total joke with little appeal whereas Trump is leading polls 5 months from Iowa, yes. I am not saying Trump is the favorite, but he at least has a chance, yes.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/herman-cains-surprising-rise-to-gop-front-runner/2011/10/06/gIQAgn7FRL_story.html

[Sumner 1868]

Reince Preibus is more likely to personally ask President Obama to assassinate Trump before he'd ever allow Trump to become the nominee of the Republican Party.

Kasich.

I doubt that Republican primary voters would care to have their voice so disregarded.

You're assuming the Trump surge lasts all the way to the convention which is 11 months from now. That's a pretty ballsy bet.

I frankly have no idea how long this phenomenon will last, and I don't dare estimate. But I do think denying him the nomination at the convention, which you implied they would be willing to do, would not play well.

[Torie]

Trump basically has no chance of getting nominated, so Kasich. A majority of Pubs think he is unfit for office.

Well, wait a minute, I guess not perhaps. So I take it back. The Pubs have lost their minds. They like bullying opportunistic blowhards with no principles or ethics, who specialize in name calling.

[Donald Trump 2016 !]

Reince Preibus is more likely to personally ask President Obama to assassinate Trump before he'd ever allow Trump to become the nominee of the Republican Party.

Kasich.

I doubt that Republican primary voters would care to have their voice so disregarded.

You're assuming the Trump surge lasts all the way to the convention which is 11 months from now. That's a pretty ballsy bet.

I frankly have no idea how long this phenomenon will last, and I don't dare estimate. But I do think denying him the nomination at the convention, which you implied they would be willing to do, would not play well.

The Republican electorate is still far more likely to nominate a moderate swing state Governor with a record of accomplishment and experience than a thin skinned ego maniac billionaire.

I'll just paste the section on this potential scenario from 538 on the Trump's 6 stages of doom article since I'm far too lazy to write it all out:

Source: http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trumps-six-stages-of-doom/

[The Other Castro]

John Kasich is a longshot and probably very unlikely to get the nomination. Donald Trump on the other hand is Donald Trump, and therefore will never win the nomination ever in the history of ever. The RNC would create more super-delegates or start new restrictions on Presbyterians or New Yorkers before they allow him anywhere near the nomination.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Just to see how out of touch Atlas is with reality - Trump has about 3x the chance.

Based exclusively on early polls?

Based exclusively on Kasich being a total joke with little appeal whereas Trump is leading polls 5 months from Iowa, yes. I am not saying Trump is the favorite, but he at least has a chance, yes.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/herman-cains-surprising-rise-to-gop-front-runner/2011/10/06/gIQAgn7FRL_story.html

Which of black, funny, and pizza shop ceo describes John Kasich, please tell.

I said not based on Kasich's poll numbers but his potential appeal

[Maxwell]

John Kasich is a longshot and probably very unlikely to get the nomination. Donald Trump on the other hand is Donald Trump, and therefore will never win the nomination ever in the history of ever. The RNC would create more super-delegates or start new restrictions on Presbyterians or New Yorkers before they allow him anywhere near the nomination.

this.

[Donald Trump 2016 !]

Just to see how out of touch Atlas is with reality - Trump has about 3x the chance.

Based exclusively on early polls?

Based exclusively on Kasich being a total joke with little appeal whereas Trump is leading polls 5 months from Iowa, yes. I am not saying Trump is the favorite, but he at least has a chance, yes.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/herman-cains-surprising-rise-to-gop-front-runner/2011/10/06/gIQAgn7FRL_story.html

Which of black, funny, and pizza shop ceo describes John Kasich, please tell.

I said not based on Kasich's poll numbers but his potential appeal

The electorate that chose Romney over Cain/Santorum/Paul/Bachmann in 2012 and chose McCain over Huckabee/Paul in 2008 is much more likely to choose an accomplished, moderate, experienced, swing state Governor over an ego maniac billionaire who thinks he can continue for 11 months straight calling people stupid and being xenophobic while providing no substantive or realistic policy proposals.

Over the course of 11 months? Trump will be able to continue this mantra for that long straight with an electorate that chose Romney/McCain and win? Over John Kasich? Are you being serious?

[RINO Tom]

Kasich.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Err, Trump; clearly. It would take a pretty strange cleRing of the field (with established egos like Bush and Rubio pulling out and ending their ambitions) for Kasich to rise enough to compete with the conservatives.

Trump will probably get bored as such people often do, but he could amuse himself by dragging the affair onto the convention and somehow swindling the party into handing the nomination to him. game theory beetches

[Negusa Nagast 🚀]

Trump basically has no chance of getting nominated, so Kasich. A majority of Pubs think he is unfit for office.

Well, wait a minute, I guess not perhaps. So I take it back. The Pubs have lost their minds. They like bullying opportunistic blowhards with no principles or ethics, who specialize in name calling.

The Pubs reap what they sow. This is simply the culmination of 20-30 years of xenophobic takes on immigration, tying themselves to evangelicalism, and eroding support of government and other secular institutions.

[JonathanSwift]

Trump by a huge margin.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Just to see how out of touch Atlas is with reality - Trump has about 3x the chance.

Based exclusively on early polls?

Based exclusively on Kasich being a total joke with little appeal whereas Trump is leading polls 5 months from Iowa, yes. I am not saying Trump is the favorite, but he at least has a chance, yes.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/herman-cains-surprising-rise-to-gop-front-runner/2011/10/06/gIQAgn7FRL_story.html

Which of black, funny, and pizza shop ceo describes John Kasich, please tell.

I said not based on Kasich's poll numbers but his potential appeal

The electorate that chose Romney over Cain/Santorum/Paul/Bachmann in 2012 and chose McCain over Huckabee/Paul in 2008 is much more likely to choose an accomplished, moderate, experienced, swing state Governor over an ego maniac billionaire who thinks he can continue for 11 months straight calling people stupid and being xenophobic while providing no substantive or realistic policy proposals.

Over the course of 11 months? Trump will be able to continue this mantra for that long straight with an electorate that chose Romney/McCain and win? Over John Kasich? Are you being serious?

You literally posted a link to Cain being the frontrunner. Was that a comparison to Trump or Kasich. I couldn't tell because both are terrible. Cain is no Donald Trump. The same scandal would never bring him down. Bachmann was always wishy washy and Santorum had zero southern appeal. Trump runs circles around those. Paul's potential appeal had a very very low ceiling. Huckabee had almost solely southern appeal, and honestly didn't do all that bad. Trump has mass appeal with a much higher ceiling and started with unheard of name recognition. You can't compare him to any previous candidate.

Also,  Trump actually performs better or the same with moderates.

[Donald Trump 2016 !]

Just to see how out of touch Atlas is with reality - Trump has about 3x the chance.

Based exclusively on early polls?

Based exclusively on Kasich being a total joke with little appeal whereas Trump is leading polls 5 months from Iowa, yes. I am not saying Trump is the favorite, but he at least has a chance, yes.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/herman-cains-surprising-rise-to-gop-front-runner/2011/10/06/gIQAgn7FRL_story.html

Which of black, funny, and pizza shop ceo describes John Kasich, please tell.

I said not based on Kasich's poll numbers but his potential appeal

The electorate that chose Romney over Cain/Santorum/Paul/Bachmann in 2012 and chose McCain over Huckabee/Paul in 2008 is much more likely to choose an accomplished, moderate, experienced, swing state Governor over an ego maniac billionaire who thinks he can continue for 11 months straight calling people stupid and being xenophobic while providing no substantive or realistic policy proposals.

Over the course of 11 months? Trump will be able to continue this mantra for that long straight with an electorate that chose Romney/McCain and win? Over John Kasich? Are you being serious?

You literally posted a link to Cain being the frontrunner. Was that a comparison to Trump or Kasich. I couldn't tell because both are terrible. Cain is no Donald Trump. The same scandal would never bring him down. Bachmann was always wishy washy and Santorum had zero southern appeal. Trump runs circles around those. Paul's potential appeal had a very very low ceiling. Huckabee had almost solely southern appeal, and honestly didn't do all that bad. Trump has mass appeal with a much higher ceiling and started with unheard of name recognition. You can't compare him to any previous candidate.

How can you predict Trump's future performances if there's nothing in the past to use as a reference point then? If he's truly somebody unique and new to the point where we have to consider him and only him, then he could just as easily collapse tomorrow as he could win every GOP primary/caucus.

There's a few things we do know about Trump though. 1. He has virtually no establishment backing. 2. His campaign is currently centered around an anti-establishment and xenophobic message. 3. He has narcissistic tendencies and talks about himself, his business experience, and attacks anyone who criticizes him as a result.

As the election approaches and voters demand to see some type of substantial and realistic policy proposals from Trump that he could get through Congress, he'll start to lose support.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Just to see how out of touch Atlas is with reality - Trump has about 3x the chance.

Based exclusively on early polls?

Based exclusively on Kasich being a total joke with little appeal whereas Trump is leading polls 5 months from Iowa, yes. I am not saying Trump is the favorite, but he at least has a chance, yes.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/herman-cains-surprising-rise-to-gop-front-runner/2011/10/06/gIQAgn7FRL_story.html

Which of black, funny, and pizza shop ceo describes John Kasich, please tell.

I said not based on Kasich's poll numbers but his potential appeal

The electorate that chose Romney over Cain/Santorum/Paul/Bachmann in 2012 and chose McCain over Huckabee/Paul in 2008 is much more likely to choose an accomplished, moderate, experienced, swing state Governor over an ego maniac billionaire who thinks he can continue for 11 months straight calling people stupid and being xenophobic while providing no substantive or realistic policy proposals.

Over the course of 11 months? Trump will be able to continue this mantra for that long straight with an electorate that chose Romney/McCain and win? Over John Kasich? Are you being serious?

You literally posted a link to Cain being the frontrunner. Was that a comparison to Trump or Kasich. I couldn't tell because both are terrible. Cain is no Donald Trump. The same scandal would never bring him down. Bachmann was always wishy washy and Santorum had zero southern appeal. Trump runs circles around those. Paul's potential appeal had a very very low ceiling. Huckabee had almost solely southern appeal, and honestly didn't do all that bad. Trump has mass appeal with a much higher ceiling and started with unheard of name recognition. You can't compare him to any previous candidate.

How can you predict Trump's future performances if there's nothing in the past to use as a reference point then? If he's truly somebody unique and new to the point where we have to consider him and only him, then he could just as easily collapse tomorrow as he could win every GOP primary/caucus.

There's a few things we do know about Trump though. 1. He has virtually no establishment backing. 2. His campaign is currently centered around an anti-establishment and xenophobic message. 3. He has narcissistic tendencies and talks about himself, his business experience, and attacks anyone who criticizes him as a result.

As the election approaches and voters demand to see some type of substantial and realistic policy proposals from Trump that he could get through Congress, he'll start to lose support.

Name one candidate who ever won by talking about substance. Voters only like flare.

And I ain't picking his future performance much. More just saying Kasich has no chance while Trump clearly might as he's leading.

[Donald Trump 2016 !]

Name one candidate who ever won by talking about substance. Voters only like flare.

No candidate ever won by talking solely about substance, but no candidate has ever won without having some realistic policy proposals in mind as well.