Dynamics of a Trump surge

[Angel of Death]

Which, if any, of the other Republican candidates are most likely to benefit from Trump's surge in the polls?

[Bull Moose Base]

Trump, not unlike Sanders, has sucked up the support of those dissatisfied with the establishment choice. Bush benefits in the primary but probably has mixed feelings since Trump is a loose cannon who could hurt him in the general.

[dudeabides]

Cruz because when Trump flops, which is bound to happen because the guy isn't that smart, Cruz will get his votes.

[Pandaguineapig]

Trump is one of those guys who will do well in the polls but nobody when it comes time to vote will mark him on their ballot. But I think it should be pointed out that we're all idiots playing into his insatiable lust for attention by giving him so much discussion and media coverage

[Fuzzy Bear Loves Christian Missionaries]

Trump is one of those guys who will do well in the polls but nobody when it comes time to vote will mark him on their ballot. But I think it should be pointed out that we're all idiots playing into his insatiable lust for attention by giving him so much discussion and media coverage

If Trump really wants to be President, he can go beyond this.  I am impressed as to the degree to which folks are sick and tired of the "political class" and Trump is definitely NOT one of "them".  He's a well-vetted outsider billionaire; the potential is there to be nominated. 

[Pandaguineapig]

Trump is one of those guys who will do well in the polls but nobody when it comes time to vote will mark him on their ballot. But I think it should be pointed out that we're all idiots playing into his insatiable lust for attention by giving him so much discussion and media coverage

If Trump really wants to be President, he can go beyond this.  I am impressed as to the degree to which folks are sick and tired of the "political class" and Trump is definitely NOT one of "them".  He's a well-vetted outsider billionaire; the potential is there to be nominated. 

Lol no he's a showman who wants attention and dittoheads at FOX and CNN are playing into his hands

[ag]

Cruz because when Trump flops, which is bound to happen because the guy isn't that smart, Cruz will get his votes.

probably

[Likely Voter]

Well cant really say Cruz benefits because he is the one who is being hurt most by Trump so at best he can hope to get back to where he was. At this point it is even possible Cruz could drop out of the top 10.

THe one who benefits the most in the short term is probably Bush. There is no overlap with Bush voters and Trump voters and as he is already the front runner and has the most cash, he can maintain his position while others strain to get any notice while Trump sucks up all the oxygen.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Bush, because Trump attacks him so much, it'll solidify Bush as the establishment candidate.

[Famous Mortimer]

Donald Trump takes Tea Party support and thus helps mainstream Republicans, like Bush.

[Slander and/or Libel]

Well cant really say Cruz benefits because he is the one who is being hurt most by Trump so at best he can hope to get back to where he was. At this point it is even possible Cruz could drop out of the top 10.

THe one who benefits the most in the short term is probably Bush. There is no overlap with Bush voters and Trump voters and as he is already the front runner and has the most cash, he can maintain his position while others strain to get any notice while Trump sucks up all the oxygen.

Donald Trump takes Tea Party support and thus helps mainstream Republicans, like Bush.

Both of these are true.

[Angel of Death]

I'm becoming more and more convinced that Trump's meteoric rise is a godsend for Jeb Bush, as the anyone-but-Trump electorate may panic very early now and already consolidate around him as the go-to alternative. So there's quite a chance of the primary turning anticlimactic after all.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Trump is one of those guys who will do well in the polls but nobody when it comes time to vote will mark him on their ballot. But I think it should be pointed out that we're all idiots playing into his insatiable lust for attention by giving him so much discussion and media coverage

Perhaps if the Republican Party had acted to make it clear to the Huckster that he wasn't welcome to use their primary process as a venue to negotiate a better deal with FOX News it would have been possible to ignore him. But the primaries were a clown car before Trump got involved. He is making it clear to everyone that its a comedy routine that has zilch to do with representative government, though.

[heatmaster]

pandaguineapig is very right. Trump is a distraction and it's summer madness, people are bored and can afford to applaud and cheer Trump,  but he's a fad and I bet that Democrats are participating in most of the poll samplings and could be creating mischief in the Republican contest, Trump is the chaf and he's going to be separated from the main crop of wheat ☺

[dudeabides]

pandaguineapig is very right. Trump is a distraction and it's summer madness, people are bored and can afford to applaud and cheer Trump,  but he's a fad and I bet that Democrats are participating in most of the poll samplings and could be creating mischief in the Republican contest, Trump is the chaf and he's going to be separated from the main crop of wheat ☺

[Kingpoleon]

Trump is one of those guys who will do well in the polls but nobody when it comes time to vote will mark him on their ballot. But I think it should be pointed out that we're all idiots playing into his insatiable lust for attention by giving him so much discussion and media coverage

Perhaps if the Republican Party had acted to make it clear to the Huckster that he wasn't welcome to use their primary process as a venue to negotiate a better deal with FOX News it would have been possible to ignore him. But the primaries were a clown car before Trump got involved. He is making it clear to everyone that its a comedy routine that has zilch to do with representative government, though.

Experienced Governors, young starring Senators, a renowned doctor, and a successful businesswoman.

Sounds pretty clownish to me.

[Senator Spark]

Ted Cruz

[Senator Spark]

I still think Trump should run as a third party

[Fuzzy Bear Loves Christian Missionaries]

If Trump implodes and leaves the race because of his own gaffes or negative past coming to light, the race will kind of "reset", with everyone under Trump moving up a notch where they are.  Cruz seems to be a good bet to pick up Trump supporters, but I'm not totally sold on this because if these voters really saw what they see in Trump in Cruz, they'd be there already.  Ted Cruz isn't obscure.

Still, Cruz is one of the few Republicans friendly to Trump.  Those Trump voters that are still committed to vote in the Republican Primary after a Trump dropout may well go mostly to Cruz on friendliness alone, particularly if Trump endorses Cruz.

[Republican Michigander]

Donald Trump takes Tea Party support and thus helps mainstream Republicans, like Bush.

That's the narrative, but I'm not buying it. Trump takes support from "disaffecteds" which isn't the same as the tea party. Those who hate politics or hate the political system are Trump's base. A lot of the "I'm staying home" types of voters like Trump.

About the ONLY place I see Trump support is in the online blogosphere. Beyond that, I saw one woman wearing a Trump shirt jogging in my neighborhood (in a 70% R precinct). That’s it.

It makes sense. Most of the online blogosphere posters aren’t campaign volunteers or campaign workers. There’s a few that are, which are easy to pick up. Most of those folks aren’t backing Trump either.

Over here on the ground (in an R+15 county if you use national 2012 PVI, or R+17 if you use state 2012 PVI), most are undecided, but of those who lean in a direction:

The grassroots? One person I know who sometimes participates supports Trump over immigration issues. That’s all I've seen.

Tea Party? Not in my area which has a very strong tea party. That’s mostly Cruz and Walker country, although some Carson and Fiorina support.

Religious Conservatives? No way. Cruz by a wide margin here.

Moderates? No way. Split between Jeb, Kasich, and Walker

Traditional center-right conservatives? I’m seeing a split between Kasich and Walker.

The hard workers in my party in the area? Nope. Mostly Cruz and Walker.

The most negative comments I hear are probably towards Graham, Jeb, and Trump in that order.

That's just in one part of the country, but it's a major R-base county in the Midwest.

[jojoju1998]

What is Trump's motive anyway ?

[DDGE]

I was wondering the other day: what are the odds of a Paul-Cruz-Trump coalition? We know Bush and Walker are cousins, so they're on the same side. Rubio seems to fit into the Bush-Walker coalition too, as well as Christie. The rest? Hard to tell.

[Republican Michigander]

Republican Michigan, you do realize that the vast majority of voters are not looking too deeply at the Presidential primaries now, right? You can't extrapolate ANYTHING based off stuff you saw in your neighborhood. Just accept it that Trump is leading and is leading big.

Also, you said a lady was wearing a Trump shirt. When was the last time you saw an average person wearing a Rubio or Scott Walker shirt? Never, I'm guessing.

A. Nobody is leading anything right now. August polls are worthless. Primary polls are also less reliable than general election polls. Between now and the primaries will have actual campaigning which hasn't really started yet. Most (the smart ones) are not spending all their money at this point.  

B. While the vast majority aren't looking deeply at primaries now, the ground game folks ARE looking at it. The infrastructure is being formed. This is a major factor in who actually wins elections. Usually the most organized team wins.

C. I haven't seen a Walker or Rubio shirt here, but I have seen 20-25 Ted Cruz shirts.

[Leinad]

I think the largest share of Trump's support--but maybe not a majority of it--will go to Cruz. Some might go to Carson or Fiorina (the "I don't want a politician" faction). A good bit of them simply wouldn't vote.

I agree with Likely Voter that Trump's popularity is helping Jeb; his support won't really get hurt by the Donald, but what does get hurt is anyone else's chances of becoming the anti-establishment/conservative guy to oppose Bush and his #swagstore.

[heatmaster]

Trump has a purpose! & it is this, a empty vessel to which the "I'm mad as hell, and won't take it anymore" crowd can and will pour there frustrations. It's the summertime, remember? Trump is a political hurricane & when the serious business gets under way, he will be "fired"😊