Have you already felt that the electoral maps did not fit to personal experience
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  Have you already felt that the electoral maps did not fit to personal experience
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Author Topic: Have you already felt that the electoral maps did not fit to personal experience  (Read 567 times)
buritobr
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« on: July 27, 2015, 07:21:03 PM »

I live in Rio de Janeiro. I have already lived in the countryside of the state of São Paulo and I have relatives and friends living in the city of São Paulo.

The results of the presidential elections in both cities were

São Paulo
1989: Collor 56.7%, Lula 43.3%
1994: Fernando Henrique Cardoso 57.8%, Lula 27.2%
1998: Fernando Henrique Cardoso 61.9%, Lula 27.8%
2002: Lula 51.1%, Serra 48.9%
2006: Alckmin 54.4%, Lula 45.6%
2010: Serra 53.6%, Dilma 46.4%
2014: Aécio Neves 63.8%, Dilma 36.2%

Rio de Janeiro
1989: Lula 73.0%, Collor 27.0%
1994: Fernando Henrique Cardoso 47.0%, Lula 27.2%
1998: Lula 42.2%, Fernando Henrique Cardoso 40.1%
2002: Lula 81.0%, Serra 19.0%
2006: Lula 65.9%, Alckmin 34.1%
2010: Dilma 61.0%, Serra 39.0%
2014: Dilma 50.8%, Aécio Neves 49.2%

National
1989: Collor 53.0%, Lula 47.0%
1994: Fernando Henrique Cardoso 54.3%, Lula 27.0%
1998: Fernando Henrique Cardoso 53.1%, Lula 31.7%
2002: Lula 61.3%, Serra 38.7%
2006: Lula 60.8%, Alckmin 39.2%
2010: Dilma 56.0%, Serra 44.0%
2014: Dilma 51.6%, Aécio Neves 48.4%


As you can see, the numbers show that Rio de Janeiro looks like a much more left-wing city than São Paulo. But this is not what I feel according to my personal experiences. For me, it looks like that, in ideology, the two biggest Brazilian cities are almost the same (both trending right in recent times).
I believe that the difference of numbers are related to the higher share of low income population in Rio de Janeiro.

What happens in other countries?
Americans, for example, have some of you already lived in a blue county (not Altas colors) that didn't look like very liberal and in a red county that didn't look like very conservative?
And the Europeans?
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shua
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« Reply #1 on: July 28, 2015, 10:42:27 AM »

I spent a summer south of Asheville, NC near the SC border. I got the impression it was more liberal than what I saw on the map.
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Crumpets
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« Reply #2 on: July 28, 2015, 01:31:13 PM »

The southern suburbs of Seattle (Kent, Auburn, Des Moines, and even Tacoma) feel very conservative, albeit a libertarian flavor of conservative. Yet looking at precinct maps from the 2012 election, all of them voted 60%+ for Obama.
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freefair
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« Reply #3 on: July 28, 2015, 11:17:06 PM »

The southern suburbs of Seattle (Kent, Auburn, Des Moines, and even Tacoma) feel very conservative, albeit a libertarian flavor of conservative. Yet looking at precinct maps from the 2012 election, all of them voted 60%+ for Obama.

And in most other democracies, wealthy suburban and yuppie-urban areas surely would be conservative or pro-market-liberal. The Modern GOP have basically committed suicide among that demographic, which they used to win by a landslide in the 80s.
For me, there's a few British areas that are with the wrong party.
Wolverhampton South-West should be an ultra safe Tory seat, given it's contains the stereotypical moneyed Suburbia of Tettenhall and Penn, and certainly does vote that way. But half the seat if the City centre, and Whitmore Reans, which helps explain why Paul Uppal lost the seat this year, against the national trend.
Also, the Powys seats would be quite safely Tory if in England, rather than Tory-LibDem marginals (though they are quite clearly trending that way).
Also Ceredigion and Meirionydd would surely have higher Tory votes (though I can see with their universities and seasonal deprivation how they would be won, like Cornwall, by a radical liberal).
On the flipside, If i had to guess I would say that Walsall, particularly Willenhall & Bloxwich , ad outside Aldridge, Pelsall and Great Barr, of would be much more Labour than it is.
Obviously, there's also Southern Essex, which could be, and used to be, very Labour, and Rural Scotland which used be monolithically, even as late as 1983, Tory.
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