India 2024 LS and assembly elections

[randomusername]

Anyway this result is probably the best possible result for moderate liberals as you can imagine:

1. The BJP lost their majority so they won’t have a blank check to do whatever they wanted

2. The INC which is still no where near ready for power were given a bigger role but not power . This means they have the opportunity to show that they are ready for power but if they fail to show it , it won’t negatively impact the nation .

3. Geographic depolarization with BJP inroads in the south but major losses in the Hindi heartland .

Definitely. I honestly expected Modi would get even more votes than last time.

Do you think Modi will remain in office for the full five years and even beyond? Anyway, the biggest issue with him is foreign policy in my view. He's way too much aligned with Russia.

Yeah I’m surprised too . Well there were always rumors he’d have stepped down in 2027-2028 regardless but given these results it means that choosing his successor will require more consensus than it otherwise would have with an outright BJP majority .

Like this completely rules out Yogi Adityanath becoming Prime Minister then as there is no way even a BJP with a small majority would pick him let alone this coalition . Furthermore he’s in charge of the state where the BJP suffered the most losses (UP) so BJP leadership will not be happy with him either . Keep in mind that Yogi is considerably to the right of Modi especially on cultural issues so you can add this to my list as well for why this was an ideal night for moderate liberals.

On Russia sadly that won’t change as even the opposition backed up Modi on this . I think Russia is more of an issue with an age gap than a partisan gap . Older Indians regardless of party  are more likely to be Pro Russia while younger Indians regardless of party aren’t and politics is usually more influenced  by older people regardless.

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/rahul-gandhi-says-opposition-agrees-with-centre-stance-on-russia-ukraine-war-4371096/amp/1

The opposition planted the question in the campaign but it seems more salient now of the question of Modi's successor. It probably does rule out Yogi for all the reasons mentioned but who knows. The Tories picked Truss despite the very obvious red flags with her. Shah of course is still the most likely option but he's also very combative and I don't think he has the charisma to win in a Presidential-style election. Outside of those two I can't really imagine anyone else. Gadkari has health issues and is old even if he could appeal to more moderate voters. Fadnavis would first have to become CM again which at least right at this moment seems unlikely, and even then I don't think he'd really do well.

What about Jaishankar . He seems to be someone with a good amount of potential credibility though it’s a question whether or not he could lead the BJP to an election victory . Though I’d also point out that we simply don’t know how the INC will act in official opposition because they likely will have more spotlight put on them this time so they too will be tested .

I think he's too highbrow if they're trying to create another Presidential-style election. Not that different than the INC trying to make Tharoor the PM face. I would have to think Rahul Gandhi would probably be at least the face of the opposition still. Not sure if they'll have him take the official post or if Kharge or Chowdhury will take it. Five years is a long time so who honestly knows.

[Oryxslayer]

I think he's too highbrow if they're trying to create another Presidential-style election. Not that different than the INC trying to make Tharoor the PM face. I would have to think Rahul Gandhi would probably be at least the face of the opposition still. Not sure if they'll have him take the official post or if Kharge or Chowdhury will take it. Five years is a long time so who honestly knows.

IMO there's no way with these results things last for a full five years. The BJP right now are a party used to doing things their own way, and that's right now likely impossible. The issue with the BJP's elected coalition is that the allies are concentrated in a few groupings, rather than hypothetically dispersed geographically with varying priorities. Which means things could get chaotic the moment a few opportunists smell weakness, and Modi stepping back at some point means that there is guaranteed to be weak moments. Never mind that the specific set of State Assembly elections up on the calendar all don't seem very good for the BJP anymore, and the JD(U) are likely already looking for ways to maintain control of Bihar after 2025.

[Mike88]

One seat yet to call, 39-Beed. The INDIA alliance has a 6,553 vote lead over NDA. Not sure how many votes are yet to be counted.

[randomusername]

I think he's too highbrow if they're trying to create another Presidential-style election. Not that different than the INC trying to make Tharoor the PM face. I would have to think Rahul Gandhi would probably be at least the face of the opposition still. Not sure if they'll have him take the official post or if Kharge or Chowdhury will take it. Five years is a long time so who honestly knows.

IMO there's no way with these results things last for a full five years. The BJP right now are a party used to doing things their own way, and that's right now likely impossible. The issue with the BJP's elected coalition is that the allies are concentrated in a few groupings, rather than hypothetically dispersed geographically with varying priorities. Which means things could get chaotic the moment a few opportunists smell weakness, and Modi stepping back at some point means that there is guaranteed to be weak moments. Never mind that the specific set of State Assembly elections up on the calendar all don't seem very good for the BJP anymore, and the JD(U) are likely already looking for ways to maintain control of Bihar after 2025.

That's fair to say although I think the same thing was said about the 2004 UPA. I do agree with you though. I'm really curious what Nitish's move is here. If he takes a ministry, I'm not sure what the plan would be for the JD(U) in terms of a face. Lalan Singh? Umesh Kushwaha? Neither are prominent. Basically, let the BJP take over?

Join the ministry and then inevitably get sick of the BJP/Modi and resign and then defect back to the Mahagathbandhan? Convince Manjhi or Upendra Kushwaha to merge with the JD(U) and have one of them be CM? He basically needs someone he can control but also prominent enough of a face that can win seats, but I don't think that person exists.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Found these on reddit:





https://www.reddit.com/r/india/comments/1d8ejks/map_comparing_the_2014_2019_and_2024_election/#lightbox

https://www.reddit.com/r/india/comments/1d8etsm/bjp_vote_share_2014_vs_2019_vs_2024/

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://indianexpress.com/article/political-pulse/in-bjps-ayodhya-loss-a-grouse-temple-for-outsiders-bjp-forgot-to-work-for-us-9372426/
Good article on the BJP loss in Faizabad. Beware that if the page reloads it demands a subscription.
"They did this work in the name of Ram. And Ram kicked them out" so said, effectively, one of the people they talked to.

[eos]

BJP candidate in Indore ended up winning by over 1,000,000. INC candidate defected and they couldn’t replace him in time. INC voters opted for NOTA which finished in second place with over 200,000 votes.

[OSR stands with Israel]

BJP candidate in Indore ended up winning by over 1,000,000. INC candidate defected and they couldn’t replace him in time. INC voters opted for NOTA which finished in second place with over 200,000 votes.

How stable do you think this NDA gov will be

[Joseph Cao]

Final margin in Mumbai North West is 48 votes out of 954k!

Already on the closest elections wiki page too.

I don't suppose contests with these tiny margins are terribly common in Indian electoral history?

[eos]

BJP candidate in Indore ended up winning by over 1,000,000. INC candidate defected and they couldn’t replace him in time. INC voters opted for NOTA which finished in second place with over 200,000 votes.

How stable do you think this NDA gov will be

I think I was perhaps a bit too excited yesterday. I now think the NDA government will last at least four years, but BJP and Modi will be much weaker. BJP should be fine as long as they remember they are leading a coalition. The result should have been a cap in Modi’s feather, but they wanted to steamroll everyone and are now disappointed they can’t get to do that.

[OSR stands with Israel]

BJP candidate in Indore ended up winning by over 1,000,000. INC candidate defected and they couldn’t replace him in time. INC voters opted for NOTA which finished in second place with over 200,000 votes.

How stable do you think this NDA gov will be

I think I was perhaps a bit too excited yesterday. I now think the NDA government will last at least four years, but BJP and Modi will be much weaker. BJP should be fine as long as they remember they are leading a coalition. The result should have been a cap in Modi’s feather, but they wanted to steamroll everyone and are now disappointed they can’t get to do that.

Seems like they are but we will have to see:

https://twitter.com/spectatorindex/status/1798195263976485334

[Antonio the Sixth]

This is really interesting, but I wish we had a map of the NDA vote share instead. BJP vote share alone is not super meaningful since it's based on which seats the competed for vs conceded to their allies.

[eos]

NDA got 46.73 pc votes in Mahrashtra but only 17/48 seats. INDIA got 43.71 pc but 30/48 seats. Independent 1 seat (supported by VBA, in relatively anti-NDA territory).

2019 to 2024 vote share
BJP - 27.84 to 26.18
SHS - 23.50 to 12.95 (2024, SHS UBT 16.52)
INC - 16.41 to 16.92
NCP - 15.66 to 3.60 (2024, NCP SP 10.27)

Decline for BJP vote share with 3 more seats contested compared to 2019.

Increase in INC vote share despite contesting 7 less seats. SHS UBT vote transferred successfully.

Splitting and taking on NCP into NDA backfired. Their voters stayed loyal to Sharad Pawar and NDA failed to transfer votes to NCP.

SHS did respectably but it’s clear that SHS UBT has around half of core SSH voters, and seem to have benefitted from INC and NCP SP vote transfer and mobilised Maratha votes against BJP due to attempts to break the party.

[eos]

Final margin in Mumbai North West is 48 votes out of 954k!

Already on the closest elections wiki page too.

I don't suppose contests with these tiny margins are terribly common in Indian electoral history?

Winner in Ladakh in 2014 had a 36 vote margin. There are several contests with margins of 0.1-0.2 pc, but the more populous the districts, the relative total margins are higher.

INDIA will challenge the final count in court.

https://indianexpress.com/article/cities/mumbai/photo-finish-in-mumbai-north-west-waikar-defeats-kirtikar-by-48-votes-9372509/lite/

[Oryxslayer]

NDA got 46.73 pc votes in Mahrashtra but only 17/48 seats. INDIA got 43.71 pc but 30/48 seats. Independent 1 seat (supported by VBA, in relatively anti-NDA territory).

2019 to 2024 vote share
BJP - 27.84 to 26.18
SHS - 23.50 to 12.95 (2024, SHS UBT 16.52)
INC - 16.41 to 16.92
NCP - 15.66 to 3.60 (2024, NCP SP 10.27)

Uhh the math is wrong.

NDA = BJP + SS + NCP +RSP (1 seat), which is 26.18 + 12.95 + 3.6 + 0.82 = 43.55.
14,913,914 + 7,377,674 + 2,053,757 + 467,282 = 24,812,627

INDIA = INC + SS(UBT) + NCP(SP), which is 16.92 + 16.72 (that's the number on the official site, IDK why wikipedia is missing 0.2%) +10.27 = 43.91.
9,641,856 + 9,522,797 + 5,851,166 = 25,015,819

[eos]

NDA got 46.73 pc votes in Mahrashtra but only 17/48 seats. INDIA got 43.71 pc but 30/48 seats. Independent 1 seat (supported by VBA, in relatively anti-NDA territory).

2019 to 2024 vote share
BJP - 27.84 to 26.18
SHS - 23.50 to 12.95 (2024, SHS UBT 16.52)
INC - 16.41 to 16.92
NCP - 15.66 to 3.60 (2024, NCP SP 10.27)

Decline for BJP vote share with 3 more seats contested compared to 2019.

Increase in INC vote share despite contesting 7 less seats. SHS UBT vote transferred successfully.

Splitting and taking on NCP into NDA backfired. Their voters stayed loyal to Sharad Pawar and NDA failed to transfer votes to NCP.

SHS did respectably but it’s clear that SHS UBT has around half of core SSH voters, and seem to have benefitted from INC and NCP SP vote transfer and mobilised Maratha votes against BJP due to attempts to break the party.

Uhh the math is wrong.

NDA = BJP + SS + NCP +RSP (1 seat), which is 26.18 + 12.95 + 3.6 + 0.82 = 43.55

INDIA = INC + SS(UBT) + NCP(SP), which is 16.92 + 16.72 (that's the number on the official site) +10.27 = 43.91

You are right, I got SHS and SHS UBT mixed up when adding the NDA pc and forgot RSP.

[OSR stands with Israel]

NDA got 46.73 pc votes in Mahrashtra but only 17/48 seats. INDIA got 43.71 pc but 30/48 seats. Independent 1 seat (supported by VBA, in relatively anti-NDA territory).

2019 to 2024 vote share
BJP - 27.84 to 26.18
SHS - 23.50 to 12.95 (2024, SHS UBT 16.52)
INC - 16.41 to 16.92
NCP - 15.66 to 3.60 (2024, NCP SP 10.27)

Decline for BJP vote share with 3 more seats contested compared to 2019.

Increase in INC vote share despite contesting 7 less seats. SHS UBT vote transferred successfully.

Splitting and taking on NCP into NDA backfired. Their voters stayed loyal to Sharad Pawar and NDA failed to transfer votes to NCP.

SHS did respectably but it’s clear that SHS UBT has around half of core SSH voters, and seem to have benefitted from INC and NCP SP vote transfer and mobilised Maratha votes against BJP due to attempts to break the party.

Uhh the math is wrong.

NDA = BJP + SS + NCP +RSP (1 seat), which is 26.18 + 12.95 + 3.6 + 0.82 = 43.55

INDIA = INC + SS(UBT) + NCP(SP), which is 16.92 + 16.72 (that's the number on the official site) +10.27 = 43.91

You are right, I got SHS and SHS UBT mixed up when adding the NDA pc and forgot RSP.

Hope you dont mind me asking, but which part of India are you from and do you still live in India or no.

[Sestak]

This is really interesting, but I wish we had a map of the NDA vote share instead. BJP vote share alone is not super meaningful since it's based on which seats the competed for vs conceded to their allies.

Alliance vote share swing maps would have their own quirks - besides the fact that the map would change starkly based on how you categorized parties that left or joined alliances between the two elections, you would also get misleading “trends” in states like Andhra or TN where potentially stark results really don’t have much to do with the BJP or Congress.

[Frodo]

The narrative is settling in the West that this election result is Indian democracy reasserting itself and rejecting the seduction of the strongman autocracy represented by PM Narendra Modi:

Indian voters reject Modi’s vision for one-party state in win for competitive democracy

[OSR stands with Israel]

The narrative is settling in the West that this election result is Indian democracy reasserting itself and rejecting the seduction of the strongman autocracy represented by PM Narendra Modi:

Indian voters reject Modi’s vision for one-party state in win for competitive democracy

What I say Modi wanted was basically to create a BJP version of the 1951-1989 era of Indian politics which instead of being dominated by Congress, be dominated by the BJP.

What this election showed was that voters didnt want a return to that era just with a different party and btw it makes sense. One Party Congress rule made it so the federal government didnt have much incentive to actually govern well