Are conservatives more/less likely to vote for Bush compared to Romney in 2012?

[Abraham Reagan]

Conservatives seemed to rally around Romney in 2012 even though he was pretty moderate on some issues. However, this might have simply been because he found ways to lawyer out of his moderate positions. Bush on the other hand, is sticking to his guns and not wavering. Will this make conservatives less likely to vote for him in 2016, and if so, do you think he'll be able to make up for it with moderate/independent votes?

[Blair]

Yeah I forgot how Bush supports gun control, equal marriage and abortion rights

[oeoyeleye]

The only thing that was moderate about Romney was his temperance. He was against SSM and abortion, for a "robust and unapologetic" foreign policy, wanted to "repeal and replace" Obamacare, came up with the term "self deportation, and thought that taxes should stay low for the wealthy. Bush has a few positions (Common Core/immigration) that might cause some conservatives to pause, but if he wins the nomination, there won't be a conservative turnout problem. It's a myth that the GOP just might win if only the squishy moderate candidates could turn out conservatives. Conservatives always, always vote, but with the demographic shifts in America, conservatives aren't enough anymore.

[Maxwell]

Less. Romney completely caved on those issues he used to disagree with mainline conservatives on. Bush, though he disagrees with less, seems to be actually standing up for his beliefs on immigration and education.

[Mehmentum]

Less likely, Bush has higher quality conservative opponents than Romney did.

[Higgs]

Yeah I forgot how Bush supports gun control, equal marriage and abortion rights

Yeah I forgot how you can't be a moderate unless you're liberal on these three issues

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Bush has always been pretty right-wing. Romney was right-wing in 2012, but wasn't so right-wing when he ran against Ted Kennedy in 1994.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Bush is not a moderate. He only seems vaguely sane compared to the complete lunacy and far right wing nuttery of the Tea Party.

[CountryClassSF]

Romney made no GOTV efforts with conservatives.  He was a hard-left candidate.  

Bush and Romney are practically the same, but Bush is honest about his beliefs, he's not going to go around pretending he's a "severe conservative" in such a condescending manner that Romney did.

Now, I'm not for Bush being the nominee, but I do think there is some evidence of his outreach towards the conservative community.  He frequently discusses religious freedom issues, while Romney looked as if he was about to pass a gallstone every time he uttered the words "pro-life."

Bush also doesn't have Stu Stevens on his advisory team, who advised Romney to be a single issue econ candidate.

I would vote for Bush if he's the nominee, but only because of the Supreme Court issue.  That's about the only reason I'll have.

However, if Trump does run as an independent, depending on where the race is, I would not rule out the possibility of supporting Trump.

[Blair]

Yeah I forgot how Bush supports gun control, equal marriage and abortion rights

Yeah I forgot how you can't be a moderate unless you're liberal on these three issues

Ah fine, I'll humour you. He's a conservative on oil, climate change, foreign policy, foreign aid, lgbtq rights, religious freedom, women's rights and healthcare.

Being in favour of immigration reform (something Reagan signed) doesn't make you a moderate, considering the 'crown prince' of the Tea Party Rubio embraced it along with the George Bush Jnr

[/]

no

[cinyc]

Yes.  There is a real movement by conservatives against the establishment for not standing up to Obama and standing up for conservative principles.  Bush is an establishment moderate who does not connect well with conservatives.  Among other things, he is an immigration heretic and does not oppose common core.  There really was no real movement or disappointment when Romney was running.

[TomC]

About the same. If more, it will have to do with authenticity more than ideology. Bush comes across as more thoughtful, Romney had an "Ill say whatever I need to" air about him. Phoney baloney.

[dudeabides]

Yes.  There is a real movement by conservatives against the establishment for not standing up to Obama and standing up for conservative principles.  Bush is an establishment moderate who does not connect well with conservatives.  Among other things, he is an immigration heretic and does not oppose common core.  There really was no real movement or disappointment when Romney was running.

In Florida, Jeb Bush cut taxes by $18 billion, reduced the size of state government by thousands of workers, increased state reserves by $8 billion, enacted medical liability reform, fought for medicaid reform, enacted school choice, stood up for the second amendment, and he opposed $2 billion in new spending.

What have Ted Cruz, Rand Paul, or Ben Carson done for conservatives? They talk a great game, but what have they actually done? Donald Trump was a socialist until he wasn't, and even now he's for protectionist trade policies and is the kind of corporate bailouts and subsidies.

Furthermore, Governor Bush's position on immigration is more fiscally conservative than those who believe we should spend trillions deporting people.

[TheElectoralBoobyPrize]

The irony is that Jeb's RECORD is definitely more conservative than Romney's who really only became a conservative when he decided to run for president.

[CountryClassSF]

The irony is that Jeb's RECORD is definitely more conservative than Romney's who really only became a conservative when he decided to run for president.

Yep. But there are concerns about his positions *today.*  Granted, he's (albeit, slightly) better than Romney on the social issues in the sense that he's comfortable talking about them.

[CountryClassSF]

In Florida, Jeb Bush cut taxes by $18 billion, reduced the size of state government by thousands of workers, increased state reserves by $8 billion, enacted medical liability reform, fought for medicaid reform, enacted school choice, stood up for the second amendment, and he opposed $2 billion in new spending.

What have Ted Cruz, Rand Paul, or Ben Carson done for conservatives? They talk a great game, but what have they actually done? Donald Trump was a socialist until he wasn't, and even now he's for protectionist trade policies and is the kind of corporate bailouts and subsidies.

Furthermore, Governor Bush's position on immigration is more fiscally conservative than those who believe we should spend trillions deporting people.

It's not fiscally conservative to reward people who refused to follow rules. You don't have to deport people.  You just have to make them not want to come here. The way to do that is for a national-style Prop 187.  Many who stay here will eventually leave if it is impossible for them to earn a living or to go to a hospital.
 
Many cheap labor Republicans  (and vote-hungry Democrats) WANT the illegal aliens here - and that position is out of step with the conservative base.

[dudeabides]

In Florida, Jeb Bush cut taxes by $18 billion, reduced the size of state government by thousands of workers, increased state reserves by $8 billion, enacted medical liability reform, fought for medicaid reform, enacted school choice, stood up for the second amendment, and he opposed $2 billion in new spending.

What have Ted Cruz, Rand Paul, or Ben Carson done for conservatives? They talk a great game, but what have they actually done? Donald Trump was a socialist until he wasn't, and even now he's for protectionist trade policies and is the kind of corporate bailouts and subsidies.

Furthermore, Governor Bush's position on immigration is more fiscally conservative than those who believe we should spend trillions deporting people.

It's not fiscally conservative to reward people who refused to follow rules. You don't have to deport people.  You just have to make them not want to come here. The way to do that is for a national-style Prop 187.  Many who stay here will eventually leave if it is impossible for them to earn a living or to go to a hospital.
 
Many cheap labor Republicans  (and vote-hungry Democrats) WANT the illegal aliens here - and that position is out of step with the conservative base.

Forcing people to pay a fine and learn English to earn legal status, which is not citizenship, is not fiscally irresponsible - so long as they aren't taking government benefits. Everyone, except for those who admit to wanting illegal immigration, wants to control the border. In fact, border crossings are down over the last few years, possibly thanks to President George W. Bush doubling border patrol agents. The question then becomes, what do you do with the 11-20 million folks here right now? We can either deport them, which would at a minimum cost $137.5 billion, or we can have them learn english, pay a fine, and get in line with everyone else who has legal status but not citizenship.

The argument on cheap labor ignores the fact that there are many jobs Americans won't do that immigrants will AND furthermore, if we grew at 4%, there would be enough jobs for everyone.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

This video telling Michigan Democrats to vote for Romney in the 2008 Michigan primary is still hilarious.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PiCqxKLIVDY

[© tweed]

isn't he Catholic and married to a Hispanic woman?  if he can't beat Romney's ~28%, that's bad

[All Along The Watchtower]

I vividly remember "Anyone But Romney." Will history repeat itself with Jeb? Who knows.

[Likely Voter]

Conservatives may not be super excited to vote for Jeb Bush but that will be eclipsed by how much they want to vote against Hillary.

[TJ in Oregon]

I would vote for Bush if he's the nominee, but only because of the Supreme Court issue.  That's about the only reason I'll have.

However, if Trump does run as an independent, depending on where the race is, I would not rule out the possibility of supporting Trump.

This is the part that boggles my mind. I get why some conservatives find Bush unappealing (and I personally think fiscons have more reason to be concerned than socons do). But why then remotely consider Donald Trump? Good heavens, if there was ever a candidate with fake positions and blatant ungenuine pandering it is him.