buritobr
YaBB God
Posts: 3,695
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« on: June 14, 2015, 08:35:55 AM » |
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Are there important differences between the elections of 1948, 1956, 1964, 1972, 1976, 1980, 1984, 1992, 1996, 2004, 2012 and the elections of 1952, 1960, 1968, 1988, 2000 and 2008?
I believe that the biggest diferences between elections in which an incumbent is running for reelection and open seat elections are:
1) In an open seat election, both candidates are vulnerable to attacks concerning their whole biographies. In a reelection campaign, the incumbent has the advantage of having only the last four years evaluated. His biography doesn't matter anymore. Only his first term matters. Bush driving drunk was a topic in 2000, but not in 2004. Obama holding his penis during the national anthem was a topic in 2008, but not in 2012. So, an incumbent is free to make strong attacks against the opponent, like Bush did in 2004 and Obama did in 2012, because he is not vulnerable to this kind of attack.
2) In an open seat election, both candidates focus on the median voter. The liberal candidate thinks "the liberals will already vote for me, if I try to appeal to the moderates, I can have the votes of the moderates. The liberals will become less satisfied, but they will still vote for me". The conservative candidate does the same. In a reelection campaign, the incumbent run a campaign focused on his original supporting base. Bush did a very conservative campaign in 2004 and Obama did a very liberal campaign in 2012 (Clinton 1996 was an exception). So, reelection campaigns are more polarized and open seat elections have both candidates closer to the center.
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