A Question/Reality Check

[coloradocowboi]

Democrats have a 50-50 chance of losing CO and NV. CO-a Top Tier GOP Challenger plus Bennet-D running a lackluster campaign. NV-Sandoval candidacy plus Republican Presidential candidate performing well in NV and CO against Hillary Clinton. 44D 56R
Democrats will pick up IL and WI. 46D 54R
In order to regain control of the US Senate- Democrats need to win CO,NV,PA,and either (AZ,FL,NH,NC,or OH)
Democrats need to hold onto CO(Bennet-D and the DSCC needs to run a strong campaign in CO) and NV(Reid-D needs to remind NV voters that Sandoval-R should remain as Governor of NV and Reid-D should remain in the US Senate- Sandoval-R could run for the US Senate in 2018 when he is term limited for the NV Governorship and Heller-R decides to run for Governor. Reid-D needs to remind NV voters that Lt Governor Mark Hutchinson-R will be a disaster.
Democrats need to pick up IL(Duckworth,Foster,or Bustos are good enough unseat Kirk). WI(Feingold or Kind),PA(Sestak),and the fourth Republican held US Senate seat should be AZ(Democrats should nominate Mark Kelly to run against McCain or whoever the Tea Party Republican nominee is. (Last time an astronaut was elected to the US Senate was in 1974(John Glenn-OH). Mark Kelly's wife Gabby Giffords should run for the US House of Rep against Martha McSally.

Dems don't have even close to a 50-50 chance of losing CO. Cory Gardner won by 2 points in a great year against a sh**tty opponent with a terrible campaign. He still had barely 50-50 odds. Also, who will the GOP run? Cynthia Coffman? She can barely even articulate a complete sentence without blabbering on about some unrelated Tea Party talking point, has Tim Gill and the gay money against her because she's a bigot, and only won against a Quick campaign that was incredibly inept and broke. Walker Stapleton? He's an overweight Bush family member who did relatively poorly against Betsy Markey. Mike Coffman? Really, the closeted, flip-flopping, congressman from Aurora? Who do the GOP have that could even beat Udall in a year like this, let alone Bennet--who is smarter, meaner, and wealthier than Udall. Will it be a close race? Maybe, because CO is so polarized. But, turnout in Denver alone has proven enough to carry Ds across the line. I'd say GOP has a 20% chance here and that's generous.

As for Nevada, well that could actually happen. But, I think Sandoval stays put and Reid goes home.

[Maxwell]

So many ignored users in one thread, I love it!

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Democrats have a 50-50 chance of losing CO and NV. CO-a Top Tier GOP Challenger plus Bennet-D running a lackluster campaign. NV-Sandoval candidacy plus Republican Presidential candidate performing well in NV and CO against Hillary Clinton. 44D 56R
Democrats will pick up IL and WI. 46D 54R
In order to regain control of the US Senate- Democrats need to win CO,NV,PA,and either (AZ,FL,NH,NC,or OH)
Democrats need to hold onto CO(Bennet-D and the DSCC needs to run a strong campaign in CO) and NV(Reid-D needs to remind NV voters that Sandoval-R should remain as Governor of NV and Reid-D should remain in the US Senate- Sandoval-R could run for the US Senate in 2018 when he is term limited for the NV Governorship and Heller-R decides to run for Governor. Reid-D needs to remind NV voters that Lt Governor Mark Hutchinson-R will be a disaster.
Democrats need to pick up IL(Duckworth,Foster,or Bustos are good enough unseat Kirk). WI(Feingold or Kind),PA(Sestak),and the fourth Republican held US Senate seat should be AZ(Democrats should nominate Mark Kelly to run against McCain or whoever the Tea Party Republican nominee is. (Last time an astronaut was elected to the US Senate was in 1974(John Glenn-OH). Mark Kelly's wife Gabby Giffords should run for the US House of Rep against Martha McSally.

Dems don't have even close to a 50-50 chance of losing CO. Cory Gardner won by 2 points in a great year against a sh**tty opponent with a terrible campaign. He still had barely 50-50 odds. Also, who will the GOP run? Cynthia Coffman? She can barely even articulate a complete sentence without blabbering on about some unrelated Tea Party talking point, has Tim Gill and the gay money against her because she's a bigot, and only won against a Quick campaign that was incredibly inept and broke. Walker Stapleton? He's an overweight Bush family member who did relatively poorly against Betsy Markey. Mike Coffman? Really, the closeted, flip-flopping, congressman from Aurora? Who do the GOP have that could even beat Udall in a year like this, let alone Bennet--who is smarter, meaner, and wealthier than Udall. Will it be a close race? Maybe, because CO is so polarized. But, turnout in Denver alone has proven enough to carry Ds across the line. I'd say GOP has a 20% chance here and that's generous.

As for Nevada, well that could actually happen. But, I think Sandoval stays put and Reid goes home.

Coffman is a legitimate candidate in the tier of Cory Gardner. Bennet is much worse than Udall (I know Udall's campaign was bad, but he seemed like a pretty good and likable candidate.) Bennet is a virtual unknown still, which is unbelievable. I think he wins by 2 considering the turnout, but I'd give Coffman a 40% chance.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

I agree, I have a hard time seeing the Dems picking up five seats from this map.

IL and WI are lean Dem. PA is a toss-up. That's three.

FL and NH are lean GOP. OH and IN are likely GOP barring any Tea Party shenanigans. Nothing else is really up for grabs on the GOP side. (I suppose Arizona, Missouri, NC, and Alaska are just shy of 100% safe, but that's massive wave territory)

NV is lean GOP if Sandoval runs. He'd destroy Reid or win any open seat in a rout. Colorado is probably lean Dem, but it depends on the national climate. Bennett is an appointee who only won thanks to a disaster of a GOP candidate the first time.

So to win the Senate, the Dems have to sweep the lean Dem seats and tossups, and then either win both the lean GOP seats or steal something from the likely/safe GOP seats, while protecting Reid and Bennett's seat. That's the kind of result that only happens in a big wave.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I agree, I have a hard time seeing the Dems picking up five seats from this map.

IL and WI are lean Dem. PA is a toss-up. That's three.

FL and NH are lean GOP. OH and IN are likely GOP barring any Tea Party shenanigans. Nothing else is really up for grabs on the GOP side. (I suppose Arizona, Missouri, NC, and Alaska are just shy of 100% safe, but that's massive wave territory)

NV is lean GOP if Sandoval runs. He'd destroy Reid or win any open seat in a rout. Colorado is probably lean Dem, but it depends on the national climate. Bennett is an appointee who only won thanks to a disaster of a GOP candidate the first time.

So to win the Senate, the Dems have to sweep the lean Dem seats and tossups, and then either win both the lean GOP seats or steal something from the likely/safe GOP seats, while protecting Reid and Bennett's seat. That's the kind of reesult that only happens in a big wave.

No, if we hold the 272 firewall, plus NV,CO,NH and PA plus WI we can duplicate it in the Senate winning CO,NV, NH, IL, WI, and PA, it is a very plausible scenario

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

I agree, I have a hard time seeing the Dems picking up five seats from this map.

IL and WI are lean Dem. PA is a toss-up. That's three.

FL and NH are lean GOP. OH and IN are likely GOP barring any Tea Party shenanigans. Nothing else is really up for grabs on the GOP side. (I suppose Arizona, Missouri, NC, and Alaska are just shy of 100% safe, but that's massive wave territory)

NV is lean GOP if Sandoval runs. He'd destroy Reid or win any open seat in a rout. Colorado is probably lean Dem, but it depends on the national climate. Bennett is an appointee who only won thanks to a disaster of a GOP candidate the first time.

So to win the Senate, the Dems have to sweep the lean Dem seats and tossups, and then either win both the lean GOP seats or steal something from the likely/safe GOP seats, while protecting Reid and Bennett's seat. That's the kind of result that only happens in a big wave.

I'd say the reason Dems are much more optimistic than you is because they would call Burr only lean due to his relative anonymity. You could say the same about Bennet, but in a Hillary year, NC is going to be less Republican-leaning than Colorado is Democratic-leaning.

[IceSpear]

I agree, I have a hard time seeing the Dems picking up five seats from this map.

IL and WI are lean Dem. PA is a toss-up. That's three.

FL and NH are lean GOP. OH and IN are likely GOP barring any Tea Party shenanigans. Nothing else is really up for grabs on the GOP side. (I suppose Arizona, Missouri, NC, and Alaska are just shy of 100% safe, but that's massive wave territory)

NV is lean GOP if Sandoval runs. He'd destroy Reid or win any open seat in a rout. Colorado is probably lean Dem, but it depends on the national climate. Bennett is an appointee who only won thanks to a disaster of a GOP candidate the first time.

So to win the Senate, the Dems have to sweep the lean Dem seats and tossups, and then either win both the lean GOP seats or steal something from the likely/safe GOP seats, while protecting Reid and Bennett's seat. That's the kind of result that only happens in a big wave.

Dems only need 4 seats, not 5. They'd need 5 if they lost the presidency, but if they do, taking the Senate is a non starter anyway.

[Xing]

While there are many possibilities, I'd our fourth seat (i.e. the tipping point race) would probably be NH or FL, maybe NC if we get a strong recruit there. It's not that inconceivable in a good year for Democrats.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

CO, NV, NH, IL, and WI duplicating the 272 firewall in CO, NV, NH and Pa and WI will give us the senate and the presidency. And John Hickenlooper put himself as a plausible VP option.

I am outlining those as the states that we must pickup to win the senate and presidency for Hillary Clinton.

[coloradocowboi]

Democrats have a 50-50 chance of losing CO and NV. CO-a Top Tier GOP Challenger plus Bennet-D running a lackluster campaign. NV-Sandoval candidacy plus Republican Presidential candidate performing well in NV and CO against Hillary Clinton. 44D 56R
Democrats will pick up IL and WI. 46D 54R
In order to regain control of the US Senate- Democrats need to win CO,NV,PA,and either (AZ,FL,NH,NC,or OH)
Democrats need to hold onto CO(Bennet-D and the DSCC needs to run a strong campaign in CO) and NV(Reid-D needs to remind NV voters that Sandoval-R should remain as Governor of NV and Reid-D should remain in the US Senate- Sandoval-R could run for the US Senate in 2018 when he is term limited for the NV Governorship and Heller-R decides to run for Governor. Reid-D needs to remind NV voters that Lt Governor Mark Hutchinson-R will be a disaster.
Democrats need to pick up IL(Duckworth,Foster,or Bustos are good enough unseat Kirk). WI(Feingold or Kind),PA(Sestak),and the fourth Republican held US Senate seat should be AZ(Democrats should nominate Mark Kelly to run against McCain or whoever the Tea Party Republican nominee is. (Last time an astronaut was elected to the US Senate was in 1974(John Glenn-OH). Mark Kelly's wife Gabby Giffords should run for the US House of Rep against Martha McSally.

Dems don't have even close to a 50-50 chance of losing CO. Cory Gardner won by 2 points in a great year against a sh**tty opponent with a terrible campaign. He still had barely 50-50 odds. Also, who will the GOP run? Cynthia Coffman? She can barely even articulate a complete sentence without blabbering on about some unrelated Tea Party talking point, has Tim Gill and the gay money against her because she's a bigot, and only won against a Quick campaign that was incredibly inept and broke. Walker Stapleton? He's an overweight Bush family member who did relatively poorly against Betsy Markey. Mike Coffman? Really, the closeted, flip-flopping, congressman from Aurora? Who do the GOP have that could even beat Udall in a year like this, let alone Bennet--who is smarter, meaner, and wealthier than Udall. Will it be a close race? Maybe, because CO is so polarized. But, turnout in Denver alone has proven enough to carry Ds across the line. I'd say GOP has a 20% chance here and that's generous.

As for Nevada, well that could actually happen. But, I think Sandoval stays put and Reid goes home.

Coffman is a legitimate candidate in the tier of Cory Gardner. Bennet is much worse than Udall (I know Udall's campaign was bad, but he seemed like a pretty good and likable candidate.) Bennet is a virtual unknown still, which is unbelievable. I think he wins by 2 considering the turnout, but I'd give Coffman a 40% chance.

MB is less personable than Mark Udall, but way smarter. He wouldn't have dedicated an entire campaign to vaginas. And, let me just reiterate that Gardner only won by 2 with half of the turnout, a flawed opponent, and a perfect campaign. I'm telling you people, Michael Bennet will win by 4 minimum and probably outrun Hillary.

Coffman is nowhere near Cory Gardner's level. Cory is attractive and affable, Coffman is unattractive and awkward. Cory has a perfect family, Coffman lives 20 miles from his wife and is dogged by gay rumors a la Lindsey Graham. Cory Gardner will change his beliefs and do or say anything to be elected, Mike Coffman... wait he does the same. But, he gets away with it less and has a lot of baggage. Romanoff ran a Dawson's Creek style campaign when he should've been hammering Coffman on comments like "The President isn't an american."