Which voter swing since 1960 is the LEAST plausible?

[bobloblaw]

Wallace/McGovern

Given Wallace's strong performance in the south and McGovern's equally poor performance, it think this combo is least likely

[bobloblaw]

Only 2 counties went Dole/Gore (this must be the lowest since at least 1960, does anything come close?), but such swings were almost entirely urban, so county flips don't represent the truth. This could be a Northeastern moderate who found Bush too cowboyish/uneducated/unexperienced.

One of them was Orange County FL

[Württemberger]

I really think Mondale/Bush sr. is one of the least plausible.

[TheElectoralBoobyPrize]

I really think Mondale/Bush sr. is one of the least plausible.

There wouldn't be many, but I'm thinking southern Democrats here. Ones who are southerners first and Democrats second. They voted Mondale when the choice was between two candidates who had no connections to the South, but when Bush was on the ballot, they picked him.

As my evidence, I'd point to the fact that Tennessee swung ever so slightly to Bush and a couple other southern states swung only a little bit to Dukakis.

I'll reiterate that there wouldn't be too many, but more common than Goldwater/Humphrey.

[PulaskiSkywayDriver]

Dole to Gore isn't that crazy. We forget but a lot of people didn't like Clinton's character but may have seen Bush as inexperienced. The Asian swing in terms of this should not be shocking. I agree Goldwater Humphrey is probably most implausible.

[SingingAnalyst]

Goldwater-Humphrey is almost impossible to imagine, even for a Minnesotan. Humphrey's fall off was so disastrous in every region and among every voting group except Blacks who didn't vote for Goldwater anyway. Several Goldwater-Humphrey counties in MS where Blacks didn't vote in 64 but were a majority of the population. All other swings are easy to explain. Wallace-McGovern? A left-leaning northern independent who voted Wallace to protest the 2-party system. Reagan-Mondale? A farmer who suffered both in 80 and 84 and turned against the incumbent, as well as unemployed people and according to polls, Jewish voters. Mondale-Bush probably not many but since Bush lost only 5 points compared to Reagan, it's not inconceivable esp in TN or GA where there was no change, maybe an evangelical turned off by Reagan's saber-rattling and Dukakis's aloof liberalism.

[SingingAnalyst]

Nixon-McGovern is entirely plausible as well: a liberal who voted Nixon in 68 to prevent Wallace from throwing election to House. Washtenaw County, MI voted Nixon 68 and McGovern 72 (and Ford 76 and Carter 80 FWIW).