The races from most likely to flip to least likely to flip.
1. Wisconsin
2. Illinois
3. Nevada
4. Colorado
5. Florida
6. Pennsylvania
7. New Hampshire
8. Kentucky
I think the parties retain all the other seats they have at the moment. I don't see any other seats flipping. Assuming Republicans beat Reid and lost Wisconsin and Illinois, and Democrats held onto Colorado, and Republicans held everything else, that's a -2 seat majority. (52-48).
But I'll make a foolhardy prediction (no real downside, predictions can be wild at this time). Every Republican wins re-election, and we knock off Reid and one other Democrat to make it 56-44 R. It's not implausible really.
While not implausible, I'd say it's unlikely. I don't think Bennet's in that much trouble, TBH. Also, I honestly don't see the Democrats as likely to lose Nevada, unless Sandoval runs, which doesn't look likely. I'd say the list of competitive races, in order of most to least likely to flip is more like this:
1. Wisconsin
2. Illinois
3. Pennsylvania
4. New Hampshire (assuming Hassan runs)
5. Nevada
6. North Carolina (I don't think Burr is that safe)
7. Florida (This will be higher if Rubio doesn't run for re-election)
8. Colorado
9/10. Ohio/Arizona (Both are unlikely, but possible)
The way it stands right now, I'd also say the Democrats gaining two seats is a reasonable guess. While it looks tough for Democrats to regain their majority right now, they could definitely do it if they get a few lucky breaks in states where Republicans are favored right now.
