If it's Bush vs. Clinton, or Huckabee vs. Clinton = very retired match-up.
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  If it's Bush vs. Clinton, or Huckabee vs. Clinton = very retired match-up.
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Author Topic: If it's Bush vs. Clinton, or Huckabee vs. Clinton = very retired match-up.  (Read 1283 times)
retromike22
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« on: December 01, 2014, 10:16:00 PM »
« edited: December 01, 2014, 10:59:26 PM by retromike22 »

If it's Bush vs. Clinton, or Huckabee vs. Clinton, then both candidates will have been out of elected office for a substantial amount of time. (I'm measuring distance from last time in office to beginning of next Presidential term) This is historically very unusual.

2016:
Bush (10 years) + Clinton (8 years, 4 if you include Secretary of State.) = 18/14 years out of office.
Huckabee: (10 years) + Clinton (8 years, 4 if you include Secretary of State.) = 18/14 years out of office.

Past elections:
2012: Obama (inc.) + Romney (6 yrs) = 6 yrs.
2008: Obama (inc.) + McCain (inc.) = 0 yrs.
2004: Bush (inc.) + Kerry (inc.) = 0 yrs.
2000: Bush (inc.) + Gore (inc.) = 0 yrs.
1996: Clinton (inc.) + Dole (7 months) = 7 months.
1992: Clinton (inc.) + Bush (inc.) = 0 yrs.
1988: Bush (inc.) + Dukakis (inc.) = 0 yrs.
1984: Reagan (inc.) + Mondale (4 yrs) = 4 yrs.
1980: Reagan (6 yrs) + Carter (inc.) = 6 yrs.
1976: Carter (2 yrs) + Ford (inc.) = 2 yrs.
1972: Nixon (inc.) + McGovern (inc.) = 0 yrs.
1968: Nixon (8 yrs) + Humphrey (inc.) = 8 yrs.

Someone else continue...
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #1 on: December 01, 2014, 10:44:11 PM »

2012: Obama (inc.) + Romney (8 yrs) = 8 yrs.

Romney would be 6 years, no?  He was elected in 2002, and served a four year term.
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retromike22
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« Reply #2 on: December 01, 2014, 10:59:56 PM »

2012: Obama (inc.) + Romney (8 yrs) = 8 yrs.

Romney would be 6 years, no?  He was elected in 2002, and served a four year term.


Thanks. Fixed. I was thinking of 2014 in my mind.
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Mister Mets
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« Reply #3 on: December 01, 2014, 11:43:19 PM »

There's another "rule" in politics that you have 14 years after winning significant office to make it to the White House. A Clinton match-up could defy that. She became a Senator 16 years ago, and many of the Republicans were elected to major office some time ago.

Paul Ryan became a congressman in 1998.
Jeb Bush was elected Governor the same year.
Mike Huckabee became a Governor in 1996.
Mike Pence was elected to Congress in 2000.
Rob Portman was elected to Congress in 1992.
John Thune was elected to Congress in 1996.
John Kasich was elected to Congress ten years eaerlier.
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jfern
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« Reply #4 on: December 02, 2014, 01:56:28 AM »

There's another "rule" in politics that you have 14 years after winning significant office to make it to the White House. A Clinton match-up could defy that. She became a Senator 16 years ago, and many of the Republicans were elected to major office some time ago.

Paul Ryan became a congressman in 1998.
Jeb Bush was elected Governor the same year.
Mike Huckabee became a Governor in 1996.
Mike Pence was elected to Congress in 2000.
Rob Portman was elected to Congress in 1992.
John Thune was elected to Congress in 1996.
John Kasich was elected to Congress ten years eaerlier.

Gore had the Presidency stolen from him 24 years after being elected to Congress.
George HW Bush and Richard Nixon had been elected to Congress 22 years before.

But I guess it's been true for a while if you exclude people who were VPs.
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retromike22
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« Reply #5 on: December 14, 2014, 01:09:17 AM »

Also, if Jeb Bush runs, he'll be the most "retired" candidate since... (someone find that out)
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jfern
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« Reply #6 on: December 14, 2014, 01:18:04 AM »

Also, if Jeb Bush runs, he'll be the most "retired" candidate since... (someone find that out)

He ties Santorum 2016.
Gingrich 2012 beats them.
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retromike22
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« Reply #7 on: December 14, 2014, 01:19:50 AM »

Also, if Jeb Bush runs, he'll be the most "retired" candidate since... (someone find that out)

He ties Santorum 2016.
Gingrich 2012 beats them.

Oh I meant nominee. Someone who was the nominee of a major party with at least 10+ years after being in office, excluding Eisenhower since he wasn't a politician.
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Mister Mets
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« Reply #8 on: December 14, 2014, 01:00:29 PM »

Also, if Jeb Bush runs, he'll be the most "retired" candidate since... (someone find that out)

He ties Santorum 2016.
Gingrich 2012 beats them.

In terms of major party nominees, I think the last one who had been out of office longer was William Jennings Bryan in 1908, 14 years after his second term in Congress ended.

Bryan had been the Democratic party's nominee for President in 1896 and 1900.
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