Landrieu Exceeded all Expectations, so will Hillary be Competitive?

[CountryClassSF]

It definitely shows that white Democrats aren't completely dead in some parts of the South. I do wonder how Landrieu was able to keep it so (relatively) close, especially in this environment and in a low turnout run-off.

This is the first time you guys  have lost this seat since 1882. Landrieu survived in a red-state midterm in 2002.  It's hilarious how Democrats can never admit getting wiped out. The margin was comparable to the Rasmussen poll released. Those predicting 20-30 points were not basing it on the RCP average, that's for sure.

The only time in recent history I can recall a Democrat doing worse than 40% in Louisiana was Obama in 2008.

Are you as stupid as you sound?

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2014/senate/la/louisiana_senate_cassidy_vs_landrieu-3670.html

Cassidy 57
Landrieu 36.8

If you can do math, that's a 20.2% margin per RCP. I know you don't know what facts are so maybe you should invest in a dictionary.

That's a 20.2% margin indeed, but it doesn't equal 100%. Those voters had to go somewhere.  But again, Mary Landrieu is not Hillary Clinton. And you know that.

This pollster, once again, BTW gets the most accurate win for this race.
I never even heard of them since the 2014 cycle. They did a very good job.

 Vox Populi (R)   11/16 - 11/17   761 LV   3.6   53   42   Cassidy +11

[Nichlemn]

"Exceeded expectations" is a pretty silly thing to hang your hat on. It usually suggests little to nothing about the underlying strength of the candidate, and mostly reflects on polling errors. Like suppose Landrieu was tied with Cassidy in the polling averages and then went on to lose by 12, would you be making this thread? Of course not. An incumbent losing by double digits is a bad absolute performance, period.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Landrieu, despite being abandoned and massively outspent, managed to exceed expectations. People were predicting a 30-point Blanching and they were wrong. Does this mean Hillary can be competitive in Louisiana? I definitely think so. Discuss.

LOL, I think you were the only one predicting a 30 point loss.

She did worse than almost anyone was predicting before the November election. She did do somewhat better than most were predicting recently. She certainly didn't get blanched, and isn't on the biggest loser list. But she did lose by 12 points.

[Mister Mets]

It's the worst showing by an incumbent Democratic Senator outside of Arkansas in quite some time. You've got to go back to Bill Frist's election in Tennessee in 1994 for a bigger loss for an incumbent.

Landrieu can take solace that when Arkansas Democrats are counted, she only had the third biggest loss of a Democratic incumbent Senator in the last twenty years.

[PulaskiSkywayDriver]

I knew it would be closer once a GOP Senate was a done deal. Cassidy was a good candidate but not a great one and Landrieu had a legacy and a turnout operation in New Orleans.

[Old Man Willow]

If the GOP nominates a Christie type she could make it competitive, but not win. It doesn't matter as long as the GOP are forced to spend money there. I see a 54-45 win for the GOP candidate as very possible.

[Free Bird]

Landrieu, despite being abandoned and massively outspent, managed to exceed expectations. People were predicting a 30-point Blanching and they were wrong. Does this mean Hillary can be competitive in Louisiana? I definitely think so. Discuss.

I don't recall anyone expecting a 30-point loss.

An incumbent losing by double-digits is typically not an indication of a party's strength in the general.

538 hinted it was possible. Landrieu was seriously underestimated and tonight was a big defeat for the Republican party.

Thank Christ you're banned