Most surprising non-competitive Senate races

[ElectionsGuy]

What were the most surprising non-competitive Senate races (in terms of margins, candidates, etc)?

Rhode Island: Jack Reed winning >70% despite the Republican wave
South Carolina (S): Tim Scott winning >60% and >80% of the white vote (which would be surprising for any Republican candidate for SC)
Tennessee: Good lord, why are there so many third party candidates?
Michigan: Gary Peters winning by a bigger margin than Durbin and Franken really shows how bad Terri Land is.
Delaware: Really expected Coons to break 60%
Texas: Cornyn won Hispanics (though by 1 point)!
Virginia: Obviously, this one turned into a competitive race and nobody saw it coming.

[moderatevoter]

Virginia.

[Miles]

Curtis getting a higher % than Pryor.

[moderatevoter]

Yes, but after ThesisGate, Daines' campaign was basically on cruise control. If Daines had run an extensive ad campaign attacking Curtis, I'm sure she would have lost by more.

[Kevin]

Virginia.

[Miles]

Would we really consider VA entirely 'non-competitive' though? On the polling map, it was (is) only Lean D.

[Flake]

Would we really consider VA entirely 'non-competitive' though? On the polling map, it was (is) only Lean D.

It just seems that Gillespie won 100% of undecided voters

[ElectionsGuy]

Would we really consider VA entirely 'non-competitive' though? On the polling map, it was (is) only Lean D.

It was non-competitive in the sense that nobody had it as Lean D or Toss-Up (even Cook had it as Likely D) and all the models had Warner's chance of winning >90%.

[Pessimistic Antineutrino]

Virginia, for obvious reasons.
Also, Wyoming. An Indy not only got 8% out of nowhere, but Hardy somehow got just 17%.
Illinois and Delaware, expected Durbin and Coons to win by more.

[Mr. Smith]

Arkansas, expected Pryor to lose by single digits, not by 20+ points

[Miles]

Arkansas, expected Pryor to lose by single digits, not by 20+ points

He didn't lose by 20+ points.

[jimrtex]

What were the most surprising non-competitive Senate races (in terms of margins, candidates, etc)?

Tennessee: Good lord, why are there so many third party candidates?

They're mostly independents.  All candidates require 25 signature, whether it is governor or legislature.  Unsurprisingly, there are more independents running for governor or senator than the legislature.

Actually, hardly anyone ran this time.   In 2010 there were 2 partisan, plus 14 independent candidates, plus 3 write-in candidates running for governor. 

Part of the reason minor parties were successful in their lawsuits regarding ballot access, was that Tennessee could not argue that the ballot would be overcrowded.

[rbt48]

What were the most surprising non-competitive Senate races (in terms of margins, candidates, etc)?


Virginia: Obviously, this one turned into a competitive race and nobody saw it coming.

Bill Kristol had the Virginia Senate race as competitive:  http://view.info.mediadc.com/?j=fefa1376706407&m=fe9012727163017e71&ls=fe6a1771746d067d7717&l=ff3016717c67&s=fe5a15747067037a7613&jb=ffcf14&ju=fe9b1673766d067d74&utm_source=newsletters&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=KC+10_13_14+%2331&r=0