How well could a third party do in Hillary vs. Jeb?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I think this is a very very very unlikely matchup, and would be suprised if either one is a nominee. But if it were to happen, many people would be very annoyed at the idea of the presidency for 20 years being held by either a Bush or Clinton (this is of course the main reason why I am completely opposed to an either Hillary or Jeb candidacy.) Could a Perot-like candidate emerge then and make a strongly showing very easily?

[TomC]

Yes, like a Jeffords or a Breaux, not like a Perot.

[Smash255]

Liberal or Conservative 3rd party not really.  as Clinton & Jeb tend to appeal well to their bases  & the opposing bases are strongly against them.  A moderate could do quite well, however

[Alcon]

Not exceptionally well, unless a moderate gained footing. However, if a major party candidate ran seperately, it would be enough press to net maybe a Nader-like showing, but only if they didn't annoy moderate members of either party.

[MaC]

I've always wondered how Jesse Ventura would do in this situation.  I think on a national level he could get a good 10% of the vote.

[TheWildCard]

What about Trump/Schwarzkopf I think thay'd do pretty well. Trumpt will fund his own campaign and get big donations from other big businessmen. Plus, Burnett can make a new reality tv show based on this.

[opebo]

I don't see why a third party would do well in this situation.  Jeb would sew up the religious extremist vote, and Hillary would get the same people who voted for Kerry.  I doubt the few in the middle would be so opposed to her or Jeb that they would vote for a third party.

[MODU]

In this match up, the third-parties will do poorly.  This will split the voting population once again.  On one side, you have people which hate Hillary (Dems and Reps alike), so they'll vote Jeb.  On the other side, you have people which hate W, so they'll take it out on his brother and vote Hillary.  As you say, it would take a Perot-type candidate to run as a third in order to break up the bunch, but at the moment I do not see any coming forward who have the name recognition nor the financing in order to pull it off.

[Joe Republic]

I'd doubt that anybody from either party would be rebellious enough to run independently.  Nobody did in 2004, which was pretty much an equal match-up in terms of ideology.

I think somebody with the same level of finances that Perot had could do well enough to pull in a respectable number of votes.  Their platform would probably center on "my name isn't Bush or Clinton", to whatever success that would have.

[Keystone Phil]

Pat Buchanan might run in this situation. He doesn't seem to be a fan of the Bushes and won't be going to any Hillary 2008 meetups either. Probably get 2 or maybe 3% of the vote.

[Brandon H]

You think somebody might run just so we don't have another Bush or Clinton Presidentcy?

Bush
Clinton
Bush
Bush vs. Clinton ?

[Bandit3 the Worker]

I think this is a very very very unlikely matchup, and would be suprised if either one is a nominee. But if it were to happen, many people would be very annoyed at the idea of the presidency for 20 years being held by either a Bush or Clinton (this is of course the main reason why I am completely opposed to an either Hillary or Jeb candidacy.) Could a Perot-like candidate emerge then and make a strongly showing very easily?

I think a left-leaning populist would do very well as a third party in this situation, if they're well-known.

[No more McShame]

Trump/Ventura would be fun to watch.  Whose ego is bigger?

[MODU]

Pat Buchanan might run in this situation. He doesn't seem to be a fan of the Bushes and won't be going to any Hillary 2008 meetups either. Probably get 2 or maybe 3% of the vote.

Buchanan would force me to vote for Jeb.  I can't stand Pat.

[MissCatholic]

a third partyy could do well. thats why most of my maps involving hillary have alot of states won wuth 40% of the overall vote.

Apathy for another bush in the mid-west and the great lake states would swing the election Hillarys way.

[TheresNoMoney]

I think a third party could get 10-20% of the vote in this race.

[skybridge]

This race would destroy any third party whatsoever. Is that why you started this thread? Both parties would discourage any vote splitting since they'd be busy enough fighting each other. Neither side would feel so underrpresented either that a third party could champion any popular but neglected issues, much less run a successful campaign. Time for change never cut it.

[TheresNoMoney]

I think a Bush/Clinton race would alienate a large number of Americans who would either sit the race out or vote third party.

[skybridge]

I think a Bush/Clinton race would alienate a large number of Americans who would either sit the race out or vote third party.

Even if a number feel that way, the major parties will do anything they can to discourage third party votes.