Can a democrat win the election electorally without winning the popular vote?

[User157088589849]

Ohio, Virginia and Florida would shift republican if a democrat lost the popular vote.

Colorado would be the decider. Just making it possible. But it is much easier to win now for a dmeocrat than it was a decade ago.

[Never]

This could most definitely happen. Florida, Virginia, and Ohio could all vote Republican and the GOP could reach 49% of the vote or so to the Democrats 48%, and Democrats would still narrowly win the electoral college.

Although this is somewhat less likely, I could also envision the final margin in states like Colorado and Virginia being less than half a percent in the Democrats favor, Ohio voting Republican by less than a point, and Florida voting Republican by 1-2 points, with the popular vote still able to swing either way despite the Democrats winning more than 270 electoral votes, in a map like this:

Democrat: 285 EVs and 48% PV?
Republican: 253 EVs and 48.5% PV?

[Mister Mets]

A uniform five point swing from 2012 would have Democrats losing the popular vote, but still winning the electoral vote. So it's possible.

2016 will probably have a slightly different map, as some states will shift more than others, but it still seems Democrats can win the ev without the pv..

[pbrower2a]

This is what a bare Obama victory in the Electoral College would have looked like in 2008 or 2012:

Just after the Republican Convention, this is how Obama could have won the election despite losing 49-50. The assumption was that he would barely win some states (New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada, and New Mexico) that he eventually won by blowout margins and while practically nobody was polling California.  As I recall from watching 2008 coverage of the Presidential election on NBC News, after Ohio had been called for Obama, he would not be assigned any other win except for Iowa -- until the results started to come in from the West Coast. The commentator said that the raw vote totals for McCain and Obama were very close but would not remain so close once the vote totals came in from California.

Obama won the states that he won by smaller (if impressive) margins than those in which he lost. He was getting McGovern/Mondale-like results in a bunch of states.    

This is what a bare (Hillary) Clinton win looks like in 2016:

or

Either way, Iowa, Ohio, and Virginia are close, but she does not win all three of them. She loses a raft of state by huge margins and barely wins those states that she does win.