http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/fivethirtyeights-2012-forecast/Because I have no life and needed something to do in order to pass the time waiting for the Hawaii polls to close tonight, I decided to test Nate Silver's 2012 Senate prediction accuracy.
Race FiveThirtyEight prediction Actual margin ErrorArizona Flake +5.1% Flake +3.5%
R+1.6 California Feinstein +20.8% Feinstein +25.0%
R+4.2 Connecticut Murphy +7.0% Murphy +11.8%
R+4.8 Delaware Carper +35.1% Carper +37.4%
R+2.3Florida Nelson +8.0% Nelson +13.0%
R+5.0Hawaii Hirono +14.7% Hirono +25.2%
R+10.5Indiana Donnelly +2.4% Donnelly +5.7%
R+3.3Maine King +17.3% King +22.2%
R+4.9Maryland Cardin +24.1% Cardin +28.7%
R+4.6Massachusetts Warren +4.4% Warren +7.5%
R+3.1Michigan Stabenow +13.6% Stabenow +20.8%
R+7.2Minnesota Klobuchar +27.4% Klobuchar +37.4%
R+7.3Mississippi Wicker +33.3% Wicker +16.6%
R+16.7Missouri McCaskill +6.2% McCaskill +15.5%
R+9.3 Montana Rehberg +1.5% Tester +4.0%
R+5.5Nebraska Fischer +7.8% Fischer +15.6%
D+7.8Nevada Heller +2.9% Heller +1.2%
R+1.7New Jersey Menendez +14.9% Menendez +19.5%
R+4.6New Mexico Heinrich +6.8% Heinrich +5.7%
D+1.1New York Gillibrand +37.3% Gillibrand +45.8%
R+8.5North Dakota Berg +5.6% Heitkamp +0.9%
R+6.5Ohio Brown +5.4% Brown +6.0%
R+0.6Pennsylvania Casey +7.6% Casey +9.1%
R+1.5Rhode Island Whitehouse +18.2% Whitehouse +29.8%
R+11.6Tennessee Corker +26.4% Corker +34.5%
D+8.1Texas Cruz +15.4% Cruz +15.8%
D+0.4Utah Hatch +35.2% Hatch +35.0%
R+0.2Vermont Sanders +29.7% Sanders +46.1%
R+16.4Virginia Kaine +3.4% Kaine +6.0%
R+2.6Washington Cantwell +18.6% Cantwell +20.9%
R+2.3West Virginia Manchin +12.0% Manchin +24.1%
R+12.1Wisconsin Baldwin +2.2% Baldwin +5.5%
R+3.3Wyoming Barrasso +44.6% Barrasso +54.3%
D+9.7