How could Obama have strengthened his 2008 campaign?

[Bleach Blonde Bad Built Butch Bodies for Biden]

I obviously don't have to write an entire mini-essay about why Obama won a lower share of the white vote than Kerry in 2004, nor should I need to paste the image of the 2008 swing map that illustrates where the Democrats managed to lose ground during what was probably the biggest electoral mandate the Democrats ever enjoyed since 1964.  In fact, the map guys here can probably name by heart every state which Obama won a lower share of the vote than Kerry (AR, WV, LA, OK, TN).

Pre-2008, AR, WV, TN, and LA consistently went Atlas red in the elections that ended with a Democratic victory.  Even during the '80-'88 thrashings, the Democrats' strong campaign infrastructure kept these now hostile territories within reach.  Michael Dukakis lost in what accurately is called a landslide election, yet although he was destroyed in nearly every corner of the map, West Virginia boldly held out, and that state preceded to stay safely in D territory for the next two presidential elections.

Over the 2000 campaign, West Virginia saw its swift transformation from a deep maroon state to a bluing purple state.  Then, Gore loses it.  Kerry loses it, too.  Yet, the Democrats are still blessed with a robust supermajority in both chambers of the legislature and a healthy (albeit steadily declining) advantage in voter registration numbers.  Naturally, it's a ripe target for Democrats looking to be president after the next election.

Alas, 2008 finally comes, and the Democrats get the national wave they had been praying for.  The Clinton firewall of the 1990s rears itself on the map again and everything falls into place.  The wave is so strong that states like Indiana, Virginia, and North Carolina come as surprise new additions to the firewall, yet by the time the election's called, it's apparent that the Clinton firewall had some loose screws.  West Virginia didn't only vote against the Democrats' presidential candidate for the third consecutive time, but it tread more to the Republicans than in the last two elections.  And Arkansas, the state where the Clintons lived and co-governed for eleven years?  Forget about it.

This is, of course, a tale that has been told and retold a number of times on and off the Atlas, but I still wonder, what could Candidate Obama have done to get back in the ring of those states and prevent the inevitable decline of his party's long-held influence there?

Was West Virginia even on Obama's radar screen, at least in the early stages of the primary campaign?  Did he concede his and his party's standing in those states long before the election season had officially begun?  Is there anything Obama could have possibly done to spread the political euphoria to regions of the country that were simply overlooked?

What about a new veep?  The first Democratic ticket to run without a Southerner since 1984 surely had to damage the party in those areas.  But surely even the Obama skepticism in Appalachia and the Ozarks shouldn't have been a match for the growing Democratic sentiment nationwide.

Was there any conceivable strategy or narrow path to victory in these areas that Obama just did not take?  If so, what could he have done to repair state Democrats' post-primary wounds and shift the pro-Obama waves to the mountain states?


I apologize for this thread in advance.  I wanted to write out a long, clear, and thorough commentary reflection on Obama's 2008 campaign and its geographic falters, but I'm on hard sleeping pills and I need to finish this message.

As a side-note, try to leave racism out of this as best you can.  Thank you.

[Badger]

He came close to his ceiling I'd say.

Not make the "bitter people clinging to guns and religion" gaffe obviously. Perhaps avoid the "above-my-paygrade" crack (not nearly as damaging as the other gaffe, but it still came across as a flippant response to an issue as emotional as abortion). It seemed he took NH's primary (especially the women's vote) for granted after IA. A HARD press for women voters in the last days after Hillary teared up (without calling specific attention to the incident of course) could've possibly won the state and darn near sewed up the nomination race then and there.

Beyond that? Squeeze in one or two late big GOTV rallies in MO to tip those last 5k votes. MAYBE even try the same in MT, though even for a state that unpopulated that still probably would've been a bridge too far.

[Bleach Blonde Bad Built Butch Bodies for Biden]

He came close to his ceiling I'd say.

Not make the "bitter people clinging to guns and religion" gaffe obviously. Perhaps avoid the "above-my-paygrade" crack (not nearly as damaging as the other gaffe, but it still came across as a flippant response to an issue as emotional as abortion). It seemed he took NH's primary (especially the women's vote) for granted after IA. A HARD press for women voters in the last days after Hillary teared up (without calling specific attention to the incident of course) could've possibly won the state and darn near sewed up the nomination race then and there.

Beyond that? Squeeze in one or two late big GOTV rallies in MO to tip those last 5k votes. MAYBE even try the same in MT, though even for a state that unpopulated that still probably would've been a bridge too far.

I know he did.  This is more of a hypothetical than anything else, but it's still notable that states which Democrats historically never won without would swing more Republican in 2008, of all elections.  But since a single gaffe now has the power to destroy an entire campaign, I suppose it shouldn't be of much surprise that people in certain regions would be disaffected by it.

[Antonio the Sixth]

This shift had to happen at some point. Appalachia was ready to turn (Atlas) blue for about two decades due to the cultural shifts we're all familiar with. Obama was just the catalyst (for, again, pretty obvious reasons) but it's ridiculous to blame him and utterly deluded to imagine Hillary will turn back the tide other than at the margins.

[Sol]

This shift had to happen at some point. Appalachia was ready to turn (Atlas) blue for about two decades due to the cultural shifts we're all familiar with. Obama was just the catalyst (for, again, pretty obvious reasons) but it's ridiculous to blame him and utterly deluded to imagine Hillary will turn back the tide other than at the margins.

Pretty much this.

[Non Swing Voter]

He probably maxed out on the number of states he could have won.  However, he could have probably increased his popular vote margin by bashing the &*(&-stain of a President that preceded him.  More animosity directed to one of the worst Presidents in history would have drummed up the vote in California and New York, which he won by large but not astronomical margins.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Uhh, Obama 08 got a higher percentage of whites than Kerry 04.

[Lief 🗽]

Never attending Rev. Wright's church would have helped, a lot.

[TDAS04]

Picking Clinton as his running mate might have narrowed the margin of his loss in Arkansas, but probably not by enough to carry it.

[IceSpear]

This shift had to happen at some point. Appalachia was ready to turn (Atlas) blue for about two decades due to the cultural shifts we're all familiar with. Obama was just the catalyst (for, again, pretty obvious reasons) but it's ridiculous to blame him and utterly deluded to imagine Hillary will turn back the tide other than at the margins.

It would've been interesting to see what states would have been different in a Clinton vs. McCain matchup. This is a pretty wonky map:

http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Clinton/Maps/Jun03.html

[Gass3268]

This shift had to happen at some point. Appalachia was ready to turn (Atlas) blue for about two decades due to the cultural shifts we're all familiar with. Obama was just the catalyst (for, again, pretty obvious reasons) but it's ridiculous to blame him and utterly deluded to imagine Hillary will turn back the tide other than at the margins.

I don't think she will win or turn back the tide, but I do think there will be some very noticeable and crazy swings.

[badgate]

This shift had to happen at some point. Appalachia was ready to turn (Atlas) blue for about two decades due to the cultural shifts we're all familiar with. Obama was just the catalyst (for, again, pretty obvious reasons) but it's ridiculous to blame him and utterly deluded to imagine Hillary will turn back the tide other than at the margins.

It would've been interesting to see what states would have been different in a Clinton vs. McCain matchup. This is a pretty wonky map:

http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Clinton/Maps/Jun03.html

This map puts Clinton below 50% in Connecticut, Maryland, & Delaware :/

[IceSpear]

This shift had to happen at some point. Appalachia was ready to turn (Atlas) blue for about two decades due to the cultural shifts we're all familiar with. Obama was just the catalyst (for, again, pretty obvious reasons) but it's ridiculous to blame him and utterly deluded to imagine Hillary will turn back the tide other than at the margins.

It would've been interesting to see what states would have been different in a Clinton vs. McCain matchup. This is a pretty wonky map:

http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Clinton/Maps/Jun03.html

This map puts Clinton below 50% in Connecticut, Maryland, & Delaware :/

Yeah, tons of weirdness there. Oklahoma, Louisiana, and Hawaii within single digits, Hillary by double digits in Arkansas, North Carolina being 15 points more Democratic than Virginia, Michigan being a tie...

I'm sure a lot of this is due to the fact that that there were some bad pollsters mixed in, along with the fact that some are months older than others. But it's pretty clear that in 2008 at least, the Clinton vs. McCain and Obama vs. McCain maps could've been wildly different, at least in terms of state margins. I think we're seeing this now in the 2016 polls as well, though to a lesser extent since the country has become much more polarized since then.

[Bleach Blonde Bad Built Butch Bodies for Biden]

There are some obvious outliers on that map, yes.  But I think this is what the map would have looked like with Hillary vs. McCain:

Give or take some states and percentages.  Better numbers among whites would make up for losses in black turnout, which I think would be dismal.

Anyway, I'm veering off topic now.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

There are some obvious outliers on that map, yes.  But I think this is what the map would have looked like with Hillary vs. McCain:

Give or take some states and percentages.  Better numbers among whites would make up for losses in black turnout, which I think would be dismal.

Anyway, I'm veering off topic now.

I think McCain would have won NC, IN, and KY; remember how divisive Hillary was for most of the Bush years.

[Badger]

There are some obvious outliers on that map, yes.  But I think this is what the map would have looked like with Hillary vs. McCain:

Give or take some states and percentages.  Better numbers among whites would make up for losses in black turnout, which I think would be dismal.

Anyway, I'm veering off topic now.

I think McCain would have won NC, IN, and KY; remember how divisive Hillary was for most of the Bush years.

This. The people on this Forum too young to remember the 90's and trying to turn Hillary into another steve Beshear or Joe Manchin is laughable.

[IceSpear]

I think a potential map could've been Obama 2008 - IN, + MO/AR.