Which state will elect another Democratic senator first?

[Old Man Willow]

It's been awhile since a Democrat has been elected statewide in either,  even for Governor. Which state is more likely to be next to elect a Senator from said party?

[WalterMitty]

ms.

blacks live there

[Franzl]

ms.

blacks live there

But not a sufficient number to outvote the nearly unanimous support for Republicans among whites.

Although Mississippi is polarized and often produces semi-close results, I'd say Utah has a higher chance of voting for a Democrat.

[MurrayBannerman]

Utah

If he/she is Mormon, they've got a chance.

[SWE]

Mississippi, assuming everything goes right there this year

[TNF]

Definitely Mississippi. As others have pointed out, the demographics are good for the Democrats, if they can somehow unite both black and lower-income white Mississippians (unfortunately no one has really been able to do that since the Radical Republicans of that state in the 1870s, prior to the Klan terrorist campaign led by the Democratic Party)

[Zioneer]

Utah, we have Jim Matheson.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

I could see Jim Matheson winning a Senate race in Utah, but if I had to guess, Mississippi is more likely to do it right now because of the significant black population.

[LeBron]

If Matheson can be considered an actual Democrat, then Utah. Depending on whether Herbert runs or again or not will determine which office he seeks in 2016 because Matheson can win an open Governor seat, but I doubt he can beat the nation's most popular Republican Governor (73% approval). He would have an easy time beating a Tea Party darling with approvals in the low 40s barring a primary challenge from a "more sane" candidate like Josh Romney, but even then if that happens, there's always Hatch's open seat in 2018 for him to contest to.

So that means I doubt Childers wins this year because it just isn't a Tea Party year and McDaniel is already hurting himself bad even before the primary. Cochran should be able to hold on and a McDaniel win would result in a Republican hold nonetheless. And nobody will take out Wicker. Jim Hood would be the only guy who could contest that race, but he's more of a Mississippian than he is a national politician.

[windjammer]

Mississippi, it should be a toss up in 2024 with the death of old white who knew segregation.

[Del Tachi]

Mississippi.

Mississippi has a statewide Democratic elected official in Jim Hood, and there are still Blue Dog rumblings in the northeastern corner of the state and the Delta. 

If a Democratic candidate in Mississippi could somehow find the "sweet spot" between Blacks, Blue Dogs and moderate progressives in places like Starkville and Jackson, then he would win in a walk. 

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Mississippi.

Mississippi has a statewide Democratic elected official in Jim Hood, and there are still Blue Dog rumblings in the northeastern corner of the state and the Delta. 

If a Democratic candidate in Mississippi could somehow find the "sweet spot" between Blacks, Blue Dogs and moderate progressives in places like Starkville and Jackson, then he would win in a walk. 

This.

[Orser67]

Utah is more likely to elect a Democrat first, but Mississippi is more likely to consistently elect Democrats in the future (unless Mormons undergo a massive political shift).

[politicallefty]

Mississippi. A more difficult question would be something like Kansas versus Wyoming.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Mississippi definitely.  Mormonism is the peanut butter to Republican jelly...

[Zioneer]

Mississippi definitely.  Mormonism is the peanut butter to Republican jelly...

More like the mayonnaise to Republican turkey/ham. Mormons are too white to be peanut butter.

Seriously though, you just need the right Democrat... He probably has to have the name Matheson.