Which assumed 2016 candidate will stun political junkies and decide not to run?

[Matty]

I don't think Jeb or Ryan will run. I understand that my Ryan pick isn't exactly bold.

[Mr. Morden]

Hillary Clinton is the only potential candidate whose non-entry into the race might conceivably "stun the nation", seeing as how normal people aren't paying attention to this race yet.

[Platypus]

I actually lean towards thinking Hillary won't run, so... that.

[Matty]

Hillary Clinton is the only potential candidate whose non-entry into the race might conceivably "stun the nation", seeing as how normal people aren't paying attention to this race yet.

changed the title

[Mister Mets]

Political junkies would know that Ryan and Jeb aren't 100% likely to run.

An interesting bit in coverage of the 2012 election was that SEC requirements made it difficult for Romney to pick Christie as a running mate. Romney's conclusion was that it would be difficult for any sitting Governor to run for President. With bridgegate it wouldn't shock anyone if Christie opts out. But it might result in Scott Walker (one of the people it seems every political junkie assumes will run) opting out.

On the Democratic side, Hillary would be the big surprise as the odds are so high on her being the party's next nominee.

[Bull Moose Base]

I keep saying many here are underestimating Cruz but I simultaneously feel many are underestimating the chance he doesn't even run. It's plausible he could pass. Rubio too, though things are gradual so an announcement of no run that may have stunned 1 or 2 years earlier wouldn't be shocking by the time it happens.

[Maxwell]

Rand Paul would be really shocking. Probably wouldn't stun the nation, but still.

[IceSpear]

Cruz. He's smart enough to know he can't win. Unless his only goal is to get maximum exposure and then live off wingnut welfare for the rest of his life (The Palin Model) he'll stay in the Senate.