Simple question for board republicans

[Non Swing Voter]

How many of these battleground states from 2012 are trending Republican? 

Florida
Virginia
North Carolina
Colorado
Ohio

(I'm only including states that were extremely close in 2012 and not fake battlegrounds like Wisconsin and Pennsylvania where the margin was over 5%)

Oh btw, democrats get 257 electoral votes without any of these states.

[I Will Not Be Wrong]

Virginia and North Carolina will probably be lean D states by the next couple cycles, mainly due to huge African American populations. While in Florida and Colorado, the GOP can gain back ground by starting to try to appeal to Hispanics, which they have recently started to do since last year. (although they really need to support immigration reform)
Ohio now will be interesting to see in the next couple election cycles.

[Flake]

The Republican Party have been terrible in appealing to Hispanics. Absolutely terrible.

[hopper]

The Republican Party have been terrible in appealing to Hispanics. Absolutely terrible.

Well Romney wasn't a candidate that was friendly to minority groups. At times the GOP has been ok at appealing to Hispanics when Reagan was President and in the first half of the 2000's. As recently as the 2010 midterms the GOP won 38% of Hispanic Voters. The GOP has been hit and miss with Hispanic Voters. They have to win a certain % of the Hispanic Vote to win states like CO, NV, and FL.

CO did trend Republican in 2012 though.

I do think NC will be Toss-Up/Tilt D soon like an Iowa, New Hampshire, or Wisconsin. I do think VA will be swing to Likely D territory pretty soon though.

[hopper]

Virginia and North Carolina will probably be lean D states by the next couple cycles, mainly due to huge African American populations. While in Florida and Colorado, the GOP can gain back ground by starting to try to appeal to Hispanics, which they have recently started to do since last year. (although they really need to support immigration reform)
Ohio now will be interesting to see in the next couple election cycles.

The Deep South R's really would hate voting yes on an Immigration Reform Package and that's the base of the party in the Deep South.

Ohio will probably be a premier swing state for another 2 presidential cycles at least.

[Indy Texas 🇺🇦🇵🇸]

The Republican Party have been terrible in appealing to Hispanics. Absolutely terrible.

Well Romney wasn't a candidate that was friendly to minority groups. At times the GOP has been ok at appealing to Hispanics when Reagan was President and in the first half of the 2000's. As recently as the 2010 midterms the GOP won 38% of Hispanic Voters. The GOP has been hit and miss with Hispanic Voters. They have to win a certain % of the Hispanic Vote to win states like CO, NV, and FL.

CO did trend Republican in 2012 though.

I do think NC will be Toss-Up/Tilt D soon like an Iowa, New Hampshire, or Wisconsin. I do think VA will be swing to Likely D territory pretty soon though.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wkkSNMCVwKA

I want you to watch this video clip and tell me if Ronald Reagan and George H. W. Bush could say the things they said about immigration in 1980 and be welcomed in their own party today. I don't think they would. I think if they were running in 2012, they'd both be booed off the stage by the Tea Party and the Buchananite Tom Tancredo types.

[hopper]

The Republican Party have been terrible in appealing to Hispanics. Absolutely terrible.

Well Romney wasn't a candidate that was friendly to minority groups. At times the GOP has been ok at appealing to Hispanics when Reagan was President and in the first half of the 2000's. As recently as the 2010 midterms the GOP won 38% of Hispanic Voters. The GOP has been hit and miss with Hispanic Voters. They have to win a certain % of the Hispanic Vote to win states like CO, NV, and FL.

CO did trend Republican in 2012 though.

I do think NC will be Toss-Up/Tilt D soon like an Iowa, New Hampshire, or Wisconsin. I do think VA will be swing to Likely D territory pretty soon though.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wkkSNMCVwKA

I want you to watch this video clip and tell me if Ronald Reagan and George H. W. Bush could say the things they said about immigration in 1980 and be welcomed in their own party today. I don't think they would. I think if they were running in 2012, they'd both be booed off the stage by the Tea Party and the Buchananite Tom Tancredo types.

Your right. They would be booed off the stage by the Tancredo types true and The Tea Party. I'm not sure you can include Buchanan with those 2 groups though.

Remember The Republican Party was not a Deep South Party in 1980 like it is today.

[Flake]

The Republican Party have been terrible in appealing to Hispanics. Absolutely terrible.

Well Romney wasn't a candidate that was friendly to minority groups. At times the GOP has been ok at appealing to Hispanics when Reagan was President and in the first half of the 2000's. As recently as the 2010 midterms the GOP won 38% of Hispanic Voters. The GOP has been hit and miss with Hispanic Voters. They have to win a certain % of the Hispanic Vote to win states like CO, NV, and FL.

CO did trend Republican in 2012 though.

I do think NC will be Toss-Up/Tilt D soon like an Iowa, New Hampshire, or Wisconsin. I do think VA will be swing to Likely D territory pretty soon though.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wkkSNMCVwKA

I want you to watch this video clip and tell me if Ronald Reagan and George H. W. Bush could say the things they said about immigration in 1980 and be welcomed in their own party today. I don't think they would. I think if they were running in 2012, they'd both be booed off the stage by the Tea Party and the Buchananite Tom Tancredo types.

Your right. They would be booed off the stage by the Tancredo types true and The Tea Party. I'm not sure you can include Buchanan with those 2 groups though.

Remember The Republican Party was not a Deep South Party in 1980 like it is today.

And that's why they are only getting a disadvantage in states like Florida and Nevada.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Virginia and North Carolina will probably be lean D states by the next couple cycles, mainly due to huge African American populations. While in Florida and Colorado, the GOP can gain back ground by starting to try to appeal to Hispanics, which they have recently started to do since last year. (although they really need to support immigration reform)
Ohio now will be interesting to see in the next couple election cycles.

The Deep South R's really would hate voting yes on an Immigration Reform Package and that's the base of the party in the Deep South.

On the contrary. They would be more then happy to, save one, vote for a common sense real reform package constructed by a moderate Democrat from North Carolina and a moderate Republican from California back a few years ago, which had bipartisan support even though it lakced a path to legal status of any kind. The one who would not support it is thus Lindsay Graham.

The GOP has had an element less than thrilled with immigration since it was founded back when it didn't get a single vote in the South. It was rural New England, Protestant Zealots and working class voters seeking to protect their jobs back then, keep out the Catholics and so forth. Even now, a good number of Reps in NY, PA and the Midwest are just as hostile on the issue. I would point out that of the people mentioned in this thread as being part of the problem, Tom Tancredo (Colorado), PAt Buchanan (NOVA, formerly MD I think) and Romney (MA), not one comes from the Deep South. On the flip side you have Lindsay Graham (SC), McCain (family hails from MS according to Trent Lott), Trent Lott (MS) and to some extent Roger Wicker (MS). Lou Barletta is from PA, as are Charlie Dent and Jim Gerlach, whilst Bob Goodlatte is from one of the somewhat more Southern parts of VA. It is not just the far right outside the South either. Marge Roukema, Joel Hefley both had higher scores then Tancredo. Even many of the current NJ Reps have career numbers that are competative with his.

I realize that you have this thing where anything Southern drives you nuts, but please refrain from these resulting factually innaccurate narratives and over generalizations, please.

[Mechaman]

Virginia and North Carolina will probably be lean D states by the next couple cycles, mainly due to huge African American populations. While in Florida and Colorado, the GOP can gain back ground by starting to try to appeal to Hispanics, which they have recently started to do since last year. (although they really need to support immigration reform)
Ohio now will be interesting to see in the next couple election cycles.

The Deep South R's really would hate voting yes on an Immigration Reform Package and that's the base of the party in the Deep South.

On the contrary. They would be more then happy to, save one, vote for a common sense real reform package constructed by a moderate Democrat from North Carolina and a moderate Republican from California back a few years ago, which had bipartisan support even though it lakced a path to legal status of any kind. The one who would not support it is thus Lindsay Graham.

The GOP has had an element less than thrilled with immigration since it was founded back when it didn't get a single vote in the South. It was rural New England, Protestant Zealots and working class voters seeking to protect their jobs back then, keep out the Catholics and so forth. Even now, a good number of Reps in NY, PA and the Midwest are just as hostile on the issue. I would point out that of the people mentioned in this thread as being part of the problem, Tom Tancredo (Colorado), PAt Buchanan (NOVA, formerly MD I think) and Romney (MA), not one comes from the Deep South. On the flip side you have Lindsay Graham (SC), McCain (family hails from MS according to Trent Lott), Trent Lott (MS) and to some extent Roger Wicker (MS). Lou Barletta is from PA, as are Charlie Dent and Jim Gerlach, whilst Bob Goodlatte is from one of the somewhat more Southern parts of VA. It is not just the far right outside the South either. Marge Roukema, Joel Hefley both had higher scores then Tancredo. Even many of the current NJ Reps have career numbers that are competative with his.

I realize that you have this thing where anything Southern drives you nuts, but please refrain from these resulting factually innaccurate narratives and over generalizations, please.

Definitely not a conservative at all here, but this post pretty much.

The "Deep South" doesn't seem to be overly hostile to immigrant populations as say the American Southwest (yes there is a difference folks).  Being somebody who family goes way back in the latter region, it's pretty easy to connect the dots on why that is.  In modern times there is a lot more immigration coming from Mexico, which borders Arizona, Southern California, New Mexico, and vast portions of West Texas.  While Southern states like Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia do have some significant Hispanic populations, those populations pale in comparison with what you find in the border states.  As a result, you find some actually pretty neutral (if not pro) politicians on the issue of immigration reform on the Republican side in the "Deep South".  Granted, you also have some pro-immigration Republicans like McCain, but he's definitely not the majority in the Arizona GOP.
And then of course there is the anti-Asian racism that is alive and well among people who are like THEY TOOK OUR DEGREES! from both parties in the Midwest and other regions of the country.
Like Yankee alluded to with the 19th century GOP, there is definitely a comparison to be made between the GOP parties in the Southwest to those that existed in New England during that period.  I'm reading a book on Irish American history that pretty much states that mobility was restricted for many immigrants in New England in the 19th century compared to other regions due to the hostility many had to immigrant laborers possibly competiting with the "native" populations there.
(this is the part where kneejerker brings up that the Irish also acted this way towards Asians, which only proves my point that a lot of nativism is motivated by economics and availability of jobs)
But oh sh*t, I got like three minutes to finish this post before going to work!  So yeah, commonly pro-nativist sentiments generally tend to come from cultures that feel an immediate threat from an outside group, which poster before Yankee was referring to.  This isn't to say that the South is morally superior to Northerners, but that the politics of nativism are far too complex to blame on any one region of the country.  Especially given that there are red staters in blue states and blue staters in red staes and yada yada.

[Mister Mets]

Pennsylvania's getting closer. It's gone from five points more left-leaning than the rest of the country in 2004 to 1.49 points in 2012. The margin was over five, but the same was true of Virginia in 2004, and by 2008, it became the state that matched the popular vote most closely.

Florida's still more conservative than the rest of the nation. A Republican who loses by three points of the popular vote will probably get Florida.

Nevada and Wisconsin went for Obama pretty big in 2008, and the numbers went down more than nationally in 2012 suggesting these could be in play in a competitive election. Or maybe the Romney/ Ryan ticket was just stronger there than it would be elsewhere.

[jamesyons]

Although I will agree Virginia is trending Democrat, most of the other states are going to continue to be tossups throughout the next three presidential elections.  Also in Virginia a large Asian population provides an opportunity for Republicans to counteract the growth of Northern Virginia in power within the state.  Obama did very well in Colorado, North Carolina, and Virginia with mobilizing new groups of voters with Hispanics, African Americans, and college age voters in all of them.  I predict that in 2016 the turnout for these groups with drop and Colorado which would be giving Democrats major problems in 2014 if it wasn't for the horrible candidates the Republicans have, i.e. Buck and Tancredo and Republicans will probably do well as shown by the downballot performance of Republicans in 2010.  Also North Carolina will continue to be close but I think that Republicans will beat Hagan since Hagan will not have the margins in Charlotte, Raleigh, and overlooked Fayetteville where Obama ran up the margins.  Those margins will be lower for Clinton and although Clinton will do better with the historically Democratic areas near Wilmington and Greenville will not be a big improvement with the low population level in these areas that will easily be counteracted by growth in Republicans areas such as Union County and southern Wake County.  Ohio will probably trend Republican with the  bailout not being an issue in 2016 and turnout among Democrats being lower in African American areas of Cleveland and Cincinnati and areas of unique Obama strength such as Columbus.  It looks like the Democrats War on Coal will not stop and the trend will continue along the Ohio River (6th C.D.).  Lastly in Florida, back in the 1990s Florida had a big Democratic trend after Bush won it in 1992 Clinton won easily in 1996 and Gore tied, Bush did well in 2004 and if Republicans focus on rebuilding their advantage among Cubans and lower the percentage Democrats receive among Puerto Ricans, combined with further gains among Jews in Palm Beach and Broward, they can do well. 

[Non Swing Voter]

Although I will agree Virginia is trending Democrat, most of the other states are going to continue to be tossups throughout the next three presidential elections.  Also in Virginia a large Asian population provides an opportunity for Republicans to counteract the growth of Northern Virginia in power within the state.  Obama did very well in Colorado, North Carolina, and Virginia with mobilizing new groups of voters with Hispanics, African Americans, and college age voters in all of them.  I predict that in 2016 the turnout for these groups with drop and Colorado which would be giving Democrats major problems in 2014 if it wasn't for the horrible candidates the Republicans have, i.e. Buck and Tancredo and Republicans will probably do well as shown by the downballot performance of Republicans in 2010.  Also North Carolina will continue to be close but I think that Republicans will beat Hagan since Hagan will not have the margins in Charlotte, Raleigh, and overlooked Fayetteville where Obama ran up the margins.  Those margins will be lower for Clinton and although Clinton will do better with the historically Democratic areas near Wilmington and Greenville will not be a big improvement with the low population level in these areas that will easily be counteracted by growth in Republicans areas such as Union County and southern Wake County.  Ohio will probably trend Republican with the  bailout not being an issue in 2016 and turnout among Democrats being lower in African American areas of Cleveland and Cincinnati and areas of unique Obama strength such as Columbus.  It looks like the Democrats War on Coal will not stop and the trend will continue along the Ohio River (6th C.D.).  Lastly in Florida, back in the 1990s Florida had a big Democratic trend after Bush won it in 1992 Clinton won easily in 1996 and Gore tied, Bush did well in 2004 and if Republicans focus on rebuilding their advantage among Cubans and lower the percentage Democrats receive among Puerto Ricans, combined with further gains among Jews in Palm Beach and Broward, they can do well. 

I mean you're pretty much outlining the Republicans running a flawless campaign in which they get every demographic group they could conceivably pitch to.  I don't see any evidence that Republicans can do well among Asians in Virginia.  Most of them live in Northern Virginia and are well educated and liberal.  Also, they tend to vote slightly more Democratic than even Virginia Hispanics.  They are a large part of the democratic base in Northern Virginia and precisely the reason Republicans are no longer competitive in the big counties outside Fairfax.

I also don't think the Republicans are going to improve among Cubans unless they nominate a Hispanic.  Cubans have been trending democrat the last few elections and I don't see why this would stop.  Also, Cubans have shrank as a percentage of the Hispanic vote in Florida every single election for the past 20 years or so.

At the same time, the black population is slightly creeping up in both Virginia and Florida (as a percentage of the vote).

[Mr. Illini]

None of them, and that's why the GOP isn't going to win next cycle, barring something huge.

[Heimdal]

None of them, and that's why the GOP isn't going to win next cycle, barring something huge.

Indeed. Just like the Democrats couldn’t possibly win in 1992, due to the continuing Republican strength in the Sunbelt states.

[Mr. Illini]

None of them, and that's why the GOP isn't going to win next cycle, barring something huge.

Indeed. Just like the Democrats couldn’t possibly win in 1992, due to the continuing Republican strength in the Sunbelt states.

You're attempting to make a similarity between one region of the country and a poll that has listed the current swing states, and that is ridiculous.

[Heimdal]

None of them, and that's why the GOP isn't going to win next cycle, barring something huge.

Indeed. Just like the Democrats couldn’t possibly win in 1992, due to the continuing Republican strength in the Sunbelt states.

You're attempting to make a similarity between one region of the country and a poll that has listed the current swing states, and that is ridiculous.

I was merely pointing out the futility of making predictions for an election that is still far off. The people who believed the Republicans had a lock on the Electoral College were obviously wrong, just as your prediction will probably turn out to be wrong. 

[hopper]

Although I will agree Virginia is trending Democrat, most of the other states are going to continue to be tossups throughout the next three presidential elections.  Also in Virginia a large Asian population provides an opportunity for Republicans to counteract the growth of Northern Virginia in power within the state.  Obama did very well in Colorado, North Carolina, and Virginia with mobilizing new groups of voters with Hispanics, African Americans, and college age voters in all of them.  I predict that in 2016 the turnout for these groups with drop and Colorado which would be giving Democrats major problems in 2014 if it wasn't for the horrible candidates the Republicans have, i.e. Buck and Tancredo and Republicans will probably do well as shown by the downballot performance of Republicans in 2010.  Also North Carolina will continue to be close but I think that Republicans will beat Hagan since Hagan will not have the margins in Charlotte, Raleigh, and overlooked Fayetteville where Obama ran up the margins.  Those margins will be lower for Clinton and although Clinton will do better with the historically Democratic areas near Wilmington and Greenville will not be a big improvement with the low population level in these areas that will easily be counteracted by growth in Republicans areas such as Union County and southern Wake County.  Ohio will probably trend Republican with the  bailout not being an issue in 2016 and turnout among Democrats being lower in African American areas of Cleveland and Cincinnati and areas of unique Obama strength such as Columbus.  It looks like the Democrats War on Coal will not stop and the trend will continue along the Ohio River (6th C.D.).  Lastly in Florida, back in the 1990s Florida had a big Democratic trend after Bush won it in 1992 Clinton won easily in 1996 and Gore tied, Bush did well in 2004 and if Republicans focus on rebuilding their advantage among Cubans and lower the percentage Democrats receive among Puerto Ricans, combined with further gains among Jews in Palm Beach and Broward, they can do well.  

I mean you're pretty much outlining the Republicans running a flawless campaign in which they get every demographic group they could conceivably pitch to.  I don't see any evidence that Republicans can do well among Asians in Virginia.  Most of them live in Northern Virginia and are well educated and liberal.  Also, they tend to vote slightly more Democratic than even Virginia Hispanics.  They are a large part of the democratic base in Northern Virginia and precisely the reason Republicans are no longer competitive in the big counties outside Fairfax.

I also don't think the Republicans are going to improve among Cubans unless they nominate a Hispanic.  Cubans have been trending democrat the last few elections and I don't see why this would stop.  Also, Cubans have shrank as a percentage of the Hispanic vote in Florida every single election for the past 20 years or so.

At the same time, the black population is slightly creeping up in both Virginia and Florida (as a percentage of the vote).

No actually Blacks made up 21% of the vote in VA in 2004 and in 2008 and 2012 they made up 20% of the electorate in those years respective presidential elections.

Blacks made up 12% of the vote in Florida in 2004 and 13% of the vote in Florida in 2008 and 2012.

The big movers in Florida were Latino's who made up 15% of the electorate in the state in 2004. Latino turnout actually went down in the state to 14% in 2008 but went up to 17% of the electoral in the state in 2012.

VA Hispanics:

2012 64-33 Obama

VA Asians

2012 66-32.