New Election Timeline from 1964

[True Democrat]

In this timeline, people can have different personalities and have different terms.  Carter, for example, may have been elected years earlier than in real life.

  I could buy that if you had an earlier POD than 1964, but your stated POD does not allow for sufficient time for Carter to become governor of Georgi any earlier than he did in OTL, which was 1970.

If it'll make you happy, Lester Maddox lost the primary to Carter in 1966.  Also, this is an election what-if.  Things in this thread can be totally unreasonable.  Have you seen PBrunsel's Goldwater presidency thread?  That would never have happened.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

good job.
One note though:  if the senate has to pick the VP in a no-majority election, they pick from the top 2 candidates.
Unless a constitutional amendment changed that in some point in your Timeline.

The 20th amendment states:

...and the Congress may by law provide for the case wherein neither a President elect nor a Vice President elect shall have qualified, declaring who shall then act as President, or the manner in which one who is to act shall be selected, and such person shall act accordingly until a President or Vice President shall have qualified.

So, Snowe is temporarily President and picks Heinz as her Vice-President because the Supreme Court is kind of Heinz's back pocket.  Then, Jeffords is certified as President, and Heinz must resign.  Chafee is then elected from the Senate, but resigns, so Jeffords can appoint Heinz.

Under your scenario Snowe doesn't get to pick a VP, temporary or otherwise.  The President pro tem would serve as President of the Senate until a Vice President is picked by the Senate.  Also Heinz has no real power to influence whoever becomes acting President.  Current law provides for the case and it gives the Republican controlled House full authority to select who would be Speaker of the House on January 20th and hence first in line to become acting President until a President is elected.  Heinz has nothing to bargain with to get Snowe in as acting President.

[True Democrat]

good job.
One note though:  if the senate has to pick the VP in a no-majority election, they pick from the top 2 candidates.
Unless a constitutional amendment changed that in some point in your Timeline.

The 20th amendment states:

...and the Congress may by law provide for the case wherein neither a President elect nor a Vice President elect shall have qualified, declaring who shall then act as President, or the manner in which one who is to act shall be selected, and such person shall act accordingly until a President or Vice President shall have qualified.

So, Snowe is temporarily President and picks Heinz as her Vice-President because the Supreme Court is kind of Heinz's back pocket.  Then, Jeffords is certified as President, and Heinz must resign.  Chafee is then elected from the Senate, but resigns, so Jeffords can appoint Heinz.

Under your scenario Snowe doesn't get to pick a VP, temporary or otherwise.  The President pro tem would serve as President of the Senate until a Vice President is picked by the Senate.  Also Heinz has no real power to influence whoever becomes acting President.  Current law provides for the case and it gives the Republican controlled House full authority to select who would be Speaker of the House on January 20th and hence first in line to become acting President until a President is elected.  Heinz has nothing to bargain with to get Snowe in as acting President.

Heinz controls the Senate, I think he has a lot to bargain with.  Also, I forgot to mention that the Supreme Court is also is Heinz's back pocket.  Just don't take this timeline so seriously.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Also, this is an election what-if.  Things in this thread can be totally unreasonable.

  For the most part you've been constructing a reasonable what-if with except for a few minor details nothing really unreasonable.  In the context of this what-if the name of the Democratic nominee in 1972 is a minor detail.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Just don't take this timeline so seriously.

OK, I won't

[True Democrat]

Just a note: Here is a racial breakdown in the what-if.

White:
54% Republican
46% Democrat

African-American:
65% Democrat
35% Repubican

Hispanics (after Heinz/Humphrey w/ Cuba and aid):
70% Democrat
30% Republican

[True Democrat]

2000:
After the last election fiasco, the Democratic party has decided to not take any chances.  They schedule all of their liberal primaries first, but throw a few moderate primaries in there to ensure someone out of the mainstream doesn't win.  The main candidates are Governor Bill Clinton of Arknansas, Governor Jean Shaheen of New Hampshire, and Representative Harold Ford Jr. of Tennessee.  Heinz chose not to run for the nomination.  Clinton did not do well in the early primaries because of his moderatism.    Ford does extremely well in urban areas, and Shaheen's major strength is in liberal rural areas, such as upper state New York and Northern Minnesota.  In the end, it all comes down to the New York and Pennsylvania primaries, which are held on the same day.  Ford is leading both, however, Shaheen pulls out of New York at the last minute and focuses on Pennsylvania.  She goes to Western Pennsylvania and receives the endorsement of Vice-President Heinz, who is still wildly popular in Pennsylvania, especially western Pennsylvania (though the rest of the country hates him).  Shaheen loses New York in an election much closer than expected, 3 points.  In Pennsylvania, Shaheen wins by 7 points, assuring her the nomination.  Shaheen ends up befriending Ford and picks him for her running mate.

Here's how the primary played out:

Red: Clinton
Blue: Shaheen
Green: Ford



For the Republican nomination, the moderates schedule their primaries first.  No one even dares to challenge Jeffords because of the way the Republicans have rigged the primaries.  Jeffords picks Republican Senator Arlen Specter as his running mate (who promises to serve for Vice-President for one term and then end his political career).  The conservative Republicans instead decide to challenge Jeffords in the general.  They form a caucus inside the party and nominate Indiana Senator Dan Quayle for President and 2-term Idaho Governor Dirk Kempthorne for Vice-President.

One month pre-election polls play out like this:

Shaheen/Ford: 48%
Jeffords/Specter: 27%
Quayle/Kempthorne: 20%
Other/Undecided: 5%

Suddenly the race begins to change, and the polls start to favor the conservatives:

3-week pre-election polls:

Shaheen/Ford: 42%
Jeffords/Specter: 22%
Quayle/Kempthorne: 33%
Other/Undecided: 3%

Jeffords sees that by staying the race, Shaheen may win.  For some unknown reason, Jeffords has a deep hatred of Shaheen, coupled with the fact the Conservatives are pressuring Jeffords to drop out, Jeffords pulls out.  The Republican party official endorses Quayle/Kempthorne.  Jeffords support is generally thought to go 80% to Quayle and 20% to Shaheen.

The final poll shows this result:

Shaheen/Ford: 46%
Quayle/Kempthorne: 50%
Other/Undecided: 4%

Shaheen does much better than expected in rural areas, but underperforms in the suburbs.  In liberal areas, Shaheen overperforms by about 15%.

African-Americans turn out in larger numbers than ever before, and support the Democrat 85-15.  Shaheen loses ground among Hispnics considerably by winning them only 53-47.  Among whites, Shaheen loses 54-46.  Shaheen ends up pulling out a 5 point victory.

Shaheen/Ford: 52%, 317
Quayle/Kempthorne: 47%, 221

[True Democrat]

2004:
Two years before the election, a huge scandal is revealed involving both Shaheen, Ford, and the leader of the Democratic party, Bill Clinton.  All are forced to resign.  After Ford resigns first, Shaheen must pick a Democrat that the Republican Congress will agree with.  The only Democrat who the Republicans will let through is former Senator Birch Bayh of Indiana, who is 76 years old and is assured not to run for office.  In the midterm elections, the Repubicans pick up huge amounts of seats.  In two districts where Republicans don't even run candidates, Independents win.

New House Makeup (Old House Makeup)
Republicans: 307(225)
Democrats: 126 (210)
Independents: 2 (0)

New Senate (Old Senate)
Repubiblicans: 56 (42)
Democrats: 44 (58)

In the 2004 election, the only Democrat to enter the primaries is 65-year old no-name Nevada State Senator Harry Reid, who had lost the Gubernatorial primary 5 times.

For the Republicans, they know they cannot lose, so have an open primary, and it turns out there is no clear winner because there are seven equal candidates:

Dark Red: Governor George W. Bush of Texas
Red: Senator Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania
Light Red: 4-term Representative Coleman of Minnesota
Dark Blue: 2-term Senator Dino Rossi of Washington
Light Blue: Successful Businessman Donald Trump of New York
Dark Green: Senator Bill Frist of Tennessee
Light Green: Governor Mark Warner of Virginia (who's a Republican)

Here is the original map:



Republicans used a winner take all system in the primaries, so the after a candidate drops out, the delegates from the states the former candidate won, get together and pick a new candidate.  The first two candidates to drop out were Warner and Rossi (unexpectingly).  The map then looks like this:



Then the two more candidates drop out, Frist and Coleman.  Nearly all of Frist's votes go to Bush, but Coleman's are split between Trump and Santorum.



None of the three candidates left want to drop out, but the party establishment forces Trump out.  His votes are about even divided between the two.  The last two states to decide are Califnornia and New York.  Santorum needs both to win, but Bush only needs one.  First to decide is Califnoria, which goes to Santorum by only one vote in committee.  The New York votes, and they also pick Santorum, by a vote in committee of 18-14.

Red: Bush
Blue: Sanorum



More about 2004 later. . .

[True Democrat]

2004 (cont'd):
For Santorum's running mate, the Republican establishment suggests he pick someone moderate to balance out the ticket.  Santorum, who has no fear of losing the election, has three major choices:  George W. Bush, Bill Frist, and talk-show host turned Florida Senator Rush Limbaugh (who beat took Graham's open seat 2002 when Graham was shown to be connected the party scandals).  Santorum ends up picking Limbaugh.

Harry Reid ends up picking Utah Representative Jim Matheson.

Early polls look like this:
Reid/Mathson: 27%
Santorum/Limbaugh: 66%
Other/Undecided: 7%

Suddenly another scandal erupts, this time with the Republicans.  Limbaugh is shown to be a drug addict.  Also, it is proven Santorum knew about this the entire time and chose not to tell the public.  Limbaugh drops out, but Santorum decides to stay in.  Santorum chooses fellow Pennsylvanian Pat Toomey as his running mate.  New polls look like this:

Reid/Matheson: 34%
Santorum/Toomey: 41%
Other/Undecided: 25%

A third party candidate decides to get into the race.  Newly Independent-turn (formerly Democratic until 2003) Senator Robert F. Kennedy Jr. of New York jumps in promising to fight corruption.  He chooses his cousin John F. Kennedy Jr. to run with him.  Some see this as a stupid move, but it turns out not to hurt Kennedy at all.  Again new polls look like this:

Reid/Matheson: 26%
Santorum/Toomey: 31%
Kennedy/Kennedy: 34%
Other/Undecided: 9%

Many Democrats ask Reid to drop out, but he refuses.  Suddenly, Kennedy gets a boost in the polls.  A final poll beforet he election looks like this:

Reid/Matheson: 25%
Santorum/Toomey: 27%
Kennedy/Kennedy: 45%
Other/Undecided: 3%

Kennedy may even get a majority in the election  As election day finishes, it appears Kennedy will win, but both Reid and Santorum will do much better than would have been though.

Kennedy/Kennedy: 42%, 329 electoral votes
Santorum/Toomey: 30%, 170 electoral votes
Reid Matheson: 27%, 39 electoral votes

[True Democrat]

2008:
By the time the 2008 election cycle rolls around, both the Democrats and Republicans have rebuilt their image.  For some reason, Senate Democrats performed horribly in the Senate midterms.  Here is the makeup of Congress after the 2006 elections:

House:
Democrats: 188
Republicans: 198
Independent (mostly Anti-corruption wave brought by RFK Jr.): 49

Senate:
Democrats: 35
Republicans: 47
Independent: 18

Robert Kennedy was facing a tough reelection campaign.  His uncle Ted told him to seek the Democratic nomination, but Kennedy refused in a public statement saying, "I will not run for the Democratic nomination if the party paid.  I refuse to be nominated by any party that is as scandalous as the Democrats."

The Liberal wing of the party in infuriated, although many anti-corruption moderates still approve of Kennedy.

The main candidates in the Democratic primaries are Senator John Kerry of Massachusetts, 3-term populist Senator John Edwards of North Carolina, and Governor Blanche Lincoln of Arkansas.  Here's how the primaries played out:

Red: Kerry
Blue: Edwards
Green: Lincoln



Edwards easily receives the nomination and picks Lincoln as his running mate  because of her great performance out west.

The Republican establishment chooses to only have one main candidate to avoid a primary like 2004.  The main Republican candidate is Senator Susan Collins.  The Conservative wing is very angry, so two days before Super Tuesday, Senator Tom Coburn of Oklahoma jumps into the race to try for the nomination.

Blue: Collins
Red: Coburn

Here's the map before Super Tuesday:



And the final map:



Coburn chooses Iowa Governor Terry Branstad for his running mate, while JFK Jr. chooses not to run for Vice-President again.  President Kennedy chooses Hubert Humphrey III to replace him.

A poll 2 weeks before the election looks like this:

Kennedy/Humphrey: 21%
Cobrun/Branstad: 47%
Edwards/Lincoln: 30%
Other/Undecided: 2%

Democrats were beggin Kennedy to drop out.  Bascially all of his support was coming from potential Edwards voters.  Kennedy refuses to drop out, and election day plays out as follows:

Kennedy/Humphrey: 31%, 131 electoral votes
Edwards/Lincoln: 27%, 136 electoral votes
Coburn/Branstad: 41%, 271 electoral votes

Coburn ends up winning, but not by the margin expected. 

[12th Doctor]

If is an interesting timeline, but I have to call it:

Mutant Space Monkies

Aside from many blatant factual errors, such as the fact that niether Gore nor Harold Ford would have been old enough to be President at the times you have themn running, there is a lot in this TL that just would never happen.

[True Democrat]

If is an interesting timeline, but I have to call it:

Mutant Space Monkies

Aside from many blatant factual errors, such as the fact that niether Gore nor Harold Ford would have been old enough to be President at the times you have themn running, there is a lot in this TL that just would never happen.

Gore was 36 when he was running.  Ford does miss it though.  He turns 35 in May 2005, five years.  Mayve there was an amendment or something.  Also, I changed many of the positions peole held and the years they held them.

[12th Doctor]

If is an interesting timeline, but I have to call it:

Mutant Space Monkies

Aside from many blatant factual errors, such as the fact that niether Gore nor Harold Ford would have been old enough to be President at the times you have themn running, there is a lot in this TL that just would never happen.

Gore was 36 when he was running.  Ford does miss it though.  He turns 35 in May 2005, five years.  Mayve there was an amendment or something.  Also, I changed many of the positions peole held and the years they held them.

Why would Humphrey not have been affected by Vietnam?  He was more pro-Vietnam War than LBJ.

[Ebowed]

If is an interesting timeline, but I have to call it:

Mutant Space Monkies

Aside from many blatant factual errors, such as the fact that niether Gore nor Harold Ford would have been old enough to be President at the times you have themn running, there is a lot in this TL that just would never happen.

Gore was 36 when he was running.  Ford does miss it though.  He turns 35 in May 2005, five years.  Mayve there was an amendment or something.  Also, I changed many of the positions peole held and the years they held them.

Why would Humphrey not have been affected by Vietnam?  He was more pro-Vietnam War than LBJ.

Humphrey never would have gotten into Vietnam if he'd been president in 1965.  He was very anti-war.  He was only pro-Vietnam because LBJ would abuse him as VP otherwise.  LBJ was a sadist.

[12th Doctor]

If is an interesting timeline, but I have to call it:

Mutant Space Monkies

Aside from many blatant factual errors, such as the fact that niether Gore nor Harold Ford would have been old enough to be President at the times you have themn running, there is a lot in this TL that just would never happen.

Gore was 36 when he was running.  Ford does miss it though.  He turns 35 in May 2005, five years.  Mayve there was an amendment or something.  Also, I changed many of the positions peole held and the years they held them.

Why would Humphrey not have been affected by Vietnam?  He was more pro-Vietnam War than LBJ.

Humphrey never would have gotten into Vietnam if he'd been president in 1965.  He was very anti-war.  He was only pro-Vietnam because LBJ would abuse him as VP otherwise.  LBJ was a sadist.

What!?!?

Humphrey was one of of the strongest proponents of the war, along with Scoop Jackson.  That is why all of the original neocons worked on Humphrey's campaign.  Humphrey was an ardent anti-communist and believed in using American military power to check the advance of that ideology.

Nixon was acctually the anti-war candidate in 1968.  The revisionists would have you believe that it was the other way around.  It was not until the end of the campaign, when it looked like Wallace might acctually take 30% of the vote and throw the race into the House, that Humphrey began to court the anti-war vote.

[True Democrat]

If is an interesting timeline, but I have to call it:

Mutant Space Monkies

Aside from many blatant factual errors, such as the fact that niether Gore nor Harold Ford would have been old enough to be President at the times you have themn running, there is a lot in this TL that just would never happen.

Gore was 36 when he was running.  Ford does miss it though.  He turns 35 in May 2005, five years.  Mayve there was an amendment or something.  Also, I changed many of the positions peole held and the years they held them.

Why would Humphrey not have been affected by Vietnam?  He was more pro-Vietnam War than LBJ.

Humphrey never would have gotten into Vietnam if he'd been president in 1965.  He was very anti-war.  He was only pro-Vietnam because LBJ would abuse him as VP otherwise.  LBJ was a sadist.

What!?!?

Humphrey was one of of the strongest proponents of the war, along with Scoop Jackson.  That is why all of the original neocons worked on Humphrey's campaign.  Humphrey was an ardent anti-communist and believed in using American military power to check the advance of that ideology.

Nixon was acctually the anti-war candidate in 1968.  The revisionists would have you believe that it was the other way around.  It was not until the end of the campaign, when it looked like Wallace might acctually take 30% of the vote and throw the race into the House, that Humphrey began to court the anti-war vote.

Let's say in this timeline, the French defeated the North Vietnamese.