The Ultimate Question For 2016

[Bureaucat]

Can a Republican candidate be sufficiently conservative to win the GOP nomination, and yet not so right wing that he's kryptonite in the purple states that ultimately decide every election?

I think it is questionable at best.  In 2012, on paper, Mitt Romney could have theoretically been deemed safe enough a choice to narrowly prevail, but ultimately he veered too far to the right in the primaries, and provided the Obama campaign with too much ammo to use to demolish him in the general.

I see Jeb Bush as the most viable candidate, followed by Christie and then possibly Rubio, but quite frankly, I think that he's possibly too conservative, although he would improve somewhat on Romney's numbers with hispanics.  I can't see Rand Paul or Ted Cruz or anyone else overtly tied to the teahadists having a chance in the majority of the purple states.  To me, it looks like a small number of candidates have a decent chance, and that winning will require threading the needle, winning Colorado, Florida, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia, with few options if they lose one of those states.

I'm sure that many of you will disagree with me, but I'm interested in your thoughts.

[IceSpear]

If the GOP changes the nominating process back to smoke filled backrooms, it's very possible Christie would be the next president. But he's going to be forced far to the right, attacked viciously by the Tea Party, and dragged through the mud for months. I imagine he'll look a lot less formidable after that.

[Bureaucat]

You make an interesting point about the smoked filled rooms.  That process may not have democratic, but it tended to fulfill its purpose; selection of a candidate that the party could present to the nation and win. Primaries allow for political zealots to dominate the process and increase the chances of a drubbing in the general election, by forcing the party too far to the left or right to ultimately prevail.

[dudehere92]

Yes.

Governor Chris Christie is, ideologically, similar to Mitt Romney. Romney won the votes of 10 million republicans and independents. Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich, considered to be more conservative than Mitt Romney, won a combined 7 million votes. The 2 million voters who supported Ron Paul were more likely tea party types and libertarians.

Chris Christie will win in states with large numbers of delegates. While conservatives will be divided between Paul Ryan, Bobby Jindal, and Rick Santorum (Ryan will probably do the best of the three) - moderate republicans and independents will support Mr. Christie. Christie's supporters would probably cite Marco Rubio as their second choice. Tea party voters will back Senator Rand Paul and Senator Ted Cruz. So, you can have Rand Paul win in Iowa, but when you get to states like Michigan, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and California, Christie will win.

Christie obviously can win a general election - he's a Washington outsider, he doesn't say dumb things, he's seen as tough, he's blunt, and he relates well to people.