Illinois will pass Gay Marriage

[memphis]

I totally would support gay marriage except that there may be some rare exception a time or two in which it might make some person a little bit uncomfortable, so I'm just going to sabatoge the entire thing Suggesting that as a reasonable position is such an crude insult to the intelligence of Forum posters! Be a grown up, and own up to your positions and those of the politicians you support. Nobody takes you seriously as a person when you contrive all these baloney excuses.

[afleitch]

What annoys me is that we can't have a single bill about LGBT rights without the incessant political tiptoe-ing to ensure that people can still be bigoted towards them in certain situations and for certain reasons.

[bgwah]

The censorship here has merely proven the cowardice even further.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

The censorship here has merely proven the cowardice even further.

No, if there had been cowardice, I would have simply let all the posts in this thread stay here in fear of being called names by those who type first and ask questions later, if they even bother to ask them at all.  And if my aim had been censorship, there is quite a good bit more I would have deleted.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

The censorship here has merely proven the cowardice even further.

The only cowardice is coming from those who have yet to admit they misjudged the situation and have not apologized.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

What annoys me is that we can't have a single bill about LGBT rights without the incessant political tiptoe-ing to ensure that people can still be bigoted towards them in certain situations and for certain reasons.

Sounds like the GOP leadership whipped their members into finding convenient excuses.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

What annoys me is that we can't have a single bill about LGBT rights without the incessant political tiptoe-ing to ensure that people can still be bigoted towards them in certain situations and for certain reasons.

[SteveRogers]

So, point of clarification: has muon2 actually stated how he would have voted had he been present?

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

So, point of clarification: has muon2 actually stated how he would have voted had he been present?

Not that I saw.

[pbrower2a]

After Hawaii and  Illinois polishes off the legislation:

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- red (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)

Colorado, Nevada, and Oregon will likely be next. Approval over 50% implies that legislation gets passed if the relevant legislatures bring it up.

But that is as far as it goes until at least 2015. As things are, same-sex marriage will take more time. 

Several states (notably WI, MI, and VA) will legalize same-sex marriage as soon as Democrats win majorities in both Houses of the state legislature. Such will absolutely not happen until 2015, at the least. The Republican Party will continue to pay off the Fundamentalists with suppression of gay rights because those Fundamentalists don't give a d@mn about economics. Obviously. Michigan will have to dump Rick Snyder as Governor and Wisconsin will have to dump Scott Walker. Ohio and Pennsylvania are more iffy -- because support for same-sex marriage is still under 50% even if it is positive.

Count on Republicans to exploit gutter fears about same-sex marriage in 2014. Republicans will have the predictable ads that associate same-sex marriage with all sorts of horrors.

Arizona, Florida, Indiana, and Montana are more problematic. The trend has been toward support for the legalization of same-sex marriage.  The Republican Party is stronger in three of the states, but in Florida support is still underwater. That can change quickly.

New Mexico is an oddity. The state law has no ban on same-sex marriage, but no permission. New Mexico would have to enact a ban on same-sex marriage to stop it, which remains possible. Short of that New Mexico is ambiguous because support for same-sex marriage is still underwater.   

Some states are going to enact same-sex marriage with economics as a pretext. Want jobs? Then vote for same-sex marriage.  Short of an oil boom I can't think of anything more likely to create jobs -- not tax breaks, not Right to Work (for starvation wages), and not lax environmental laws.     

My estimates based on polling:

Predicted date of same-sex marriage legalization:

white -- already legal
light blue -- 2013 or 2014 -- 20% saturation     
light-medium blue 2015 or 2016 if things go right -- 40% saturation
blue 2017 or 2018 -- 60% saturation
2019 or 2020 -- 80% saturation

New Mexico has an ambiguous law

ambiguous law -- yellow


Others? All bets are off, and and same-sex marriage is more likely to be established through some court ruling. Heck, Utah goes for same-sex marriage as soon as the Mormon hierarchy so says -- but probably not before then.


40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- red (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)