House delegations you forsee not having any party switches in the whole decade

[Nichlemn]

What House delegations (in states with more than one seat) do you think have a greater than 50% chance of not having a single seat switch party control under its current lines?

The following are (as far as I can recall) the states that this applied to under the last decade:

Oregon
Nebraska
Oklahoma
Rhode Island
Massachusetts

Not very many, it turns out. And only Oklahoma and Nebraska didn't have a Senate seat switch during that time frame (and both ended up with a flip of some kind in 2012). I think this suggests that we may be overestimating how strong some of today's gerrymanders are.

Of those states, I'd only be comfortable betting on OK and RI, though neither are mortal locks. I think the other three all have a >50% chance of at least one flip, but not much more - mainly due to the addition of a lot of small-ish probabilities. Of other states, I'd put ID and HI in the "likely" category.  Other states which are somewhat likely include KS, KY, TN, AL, SC, MS, LA, MO, CT, ME, MD. They have few if any swing seats, but enough theoretically plausible seats for the probability of at least one flip to be possible in the next decade.

UT and NC are in the "almost certainly not" category due to their open Democratic-held Republican-favouring seats, as well as all of the very largest states.  

[Nichlemn]

Nothing?

[RogueBeaver]

Arkansas, Alabama, Utah to name a few.

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

Utah

Well this is awkward.

Connecticut, Idaho, South Carolina, Hawaii, Alabama, and Mississippi come to mind as locks.

[Horus]

Alabama, Arkansas, Connecticut, South Carolina, Tennessee, Mississippi, Louisiana, Oklahoma, Maine, Rhode Island, Maryland, Kentucky, Missouri, Hawaii, Idaho.

[Nichlemn]

Utah

Well this is awkward.

Connecticut, Idaho, South Carolina, Hawaii, Alabama, and Mississippi come to mind as locks.

CT has several seats (the 2nd, 4th and 5th) that Republicans have held recently and are D+3 to D+5. It cwouldn't be surprising if none of them ever flipped, but at the very least there's a good chance of at least one flip somewhere (I would say >50%). Democrats only won the open CT-05 seat by 3 points in 2012, for instance. Some combination of scandal/retirement/good Republican candidate/good Republican year would do it, and there are three plausible seats over four cycles. The probability of any single one of those races flipping may not be very high, but added together is quite significant.

I think quite a lot of states are in that boat - on paper they look like they'll stay the whole decade, but they have enough "Likely R/D" type races that they all add up. That's why we didn't see many last decade.

[publicunofficial]

Hawaii
Oregon
Idaho
Utah (After GOP takes UT-04)
New Mexico
Oklahoma
Missouri
Louisiana
Mississippi
Alabama
Tennessee
South Carolina
North Carolina (After GOP takes NC-07)
Rhode Island