Argentina 2013: Legislative Election, Primaries and assorted maps

[Velasco]

I want to congratulate Argentinian people as its Supreme Court accepted constitutionality of Broadcasting Law. Clarin Miente!.
With constitutionality, Broadcasting Czar Martin Sabbatella gain strength in government. He can be a good candidate for Vice President or for Buenos Aires' governorship.

The verdict might have come a bit late, though it's doubtful that had had consequences in the election outcome. There are rumors of which there might have been pressures on the court in order that the verdict was pronounced before last Sunday, but you know already they circulate rumors of all kinds.

Maradona is doubly happy, so much because he is a K supporter as because his birthday is today. El Maestro says that Clarín has a spot on his nose. Genio y figura

[Peeperkorn]

With constitutionality, Broadcasting Czar Martin Sabbatella gain strength in government. He can be a good candidate for Vice President or for Buenos Aires' governorship.

LOL WUT

Sabatella is a tránsfuga (don't know the word in English....how do you say if you abruptly change parties and ideals?) and in Morón (his district) the kirchnerismo lost.

[Velasco]

The translation that I've found for "tránsfuga" is "turncoat", but that word is more similar to the Spanish "chaquetero". Sabbatella didn't switch parties. He has been always the New Encounter founder and boss. What Sabbatella did was joining the FPV alliance together with his party. Nevertheless, some people think that, once in the government, he betrayed his ideals. Morón was a landslide for Massa.

[Velasco]

Results by party/alliance in Greater Buenos Aires:





Crushing Sergio Massa performance in the northern section of the Buenos Aires metropolitan region and great results in the rest. Obviously the best place for FR was Massa's home (Tigre 65.5%) and the worst at Insaurralde's (Lomas 32.5%). In places which were tossups in August, Massa'a margin increased (Merlo: FR 47.1%, FPV 38.3%). FPV oscillates between 15-20% in the wealthiest northern municipalities and 40-45% in some bastions in the south. Best results in Lomas (48.3%) and Florencio Varela (46.65%) and lowest records in San Isidro (16%), Vicente López (16.85%) and Tigre (19.85%). The center left Civic Social and Progressive Front (FPCS) didn't improve very much with regard to the bad performance in August. Best results in Vicente López (20.3% and second behind FR with 49.9%) and San Isidro (15.4%) plus Stolbizer's birthplace, Morón (15.8%). De Narváez and the Union for Freedom and Work (FULT) were virtually eaten by Massa. Best results in San Isidro and Ezeiza (5.1%) and around 4% in the rest. The best places for the Workers' Left Front (FIT) were in the area that includes Morón and Tres de Febrero plus Avelaneda (just in front of Boca, on the other bench of El Riachuelo) and Vicente López with percentages between 6.5% and 7%.

EDIT: Some errors fixed. Separate images. Colour scale changed to 2.5%.

[Velasco]

Buenos Aires City: PRO, UNEN and FPV results by commune. Deputies and Senators.



Interactive map of results (deputies) by precinct. You have to click in every dot to see the details.

http://www.lanacion.com.ar/1633333-como-fueron-los-resultados-de-las-elecciones-en-la-escuela-donde-votaste

[Velasco]

Legislative elections in Córdoba, 2009-2013. Chamber of Deputies.



In the 2009 legislative election opposition parties swept FPV aside. The outcome was particularly good for center-left opposition, UCR and the Civic Front, an alliance including the New Party of Cordoba lead by Luis Juez, the socialists and CC-ARI. In deputies UCR got 29.03% of the vote winning 3 seats; the Civic Front 28.06% winning 3; De la Sota's Union for Córdoba (dissident peronism) 26.55% winning 2 and FPV 9.1% winning 1. In the Senate the victory was for the Civic Front with 30.65% and the 2 majority seats (Luis Juez and the socialist Norma Morandini, who in the 2011 presidential was the Binner's running mate), followed by UCR with 26.67%, winning the minority seat (Ramón Mestre, current mayor of Córdoba City). Union for Cordoba got 26.14% of the vote and FPV 8.74%.

In 2011 the Front for Victory won the legislative election in the province, in the trail of CFdK national landslide. De la Sota and Union for Córdoba failed in the primary elections held months before getting only 6.74%, so the governor's alliance didn't run in the legislative and the Rodríguez Saá Compromiso Federal and Duhalde's People's Front were the remaining lists representing opposition peronism. FPV got 34.97% of the vote winning 4 seats, UCR came second (20.33% and 2 seats), followed by FAP (20.23%, 2 seats) and CF (11.91%, 1 seat). FPV and FAP grew in comparison with the primaries ( they got 29.59% and 13.51% respectively), whereas UCR remained stable (20.17%), CF diminished a bit (12.4%) and the People's Front fell from 10.05% to 5.48%.

The outcome of the 2013 election has left a volatile and fragmented scenario. Union for Cordoba won the election, but the result was disappointing for governor De la Sota (UpC fell from 30% in the PASO to 26.5%). The provincial government suffered the effect of a narco scandal involving corrupt police agents. The support for UpC was strong in rural areas, but the alliance only came third in the provincial capital, which represents 40% of the roll, behind UCR and the PRO. UCR won in the capital, which currently governs, but only got 20% of the vote. FPV improved with regard to the primary elections and PRO performed well in the capital and surrounding departments. Finally, the Civic Front collapsed.

The reasons of the catastrophe for the coalition lead by Luis Juez remain somewhat obscure to me. Juez earned popularity when he was the provincial anti corruption attorney and later founded the New party gathering independents, disillusioned radicals and peronists, former Frepasistas... He was on the verge of winning the 2007 gubernatorial election against the peronist Schiaretti in a very tight contest which ended in the Supreme Court.  

I found an article in the local newspaper La Voz del Interior which maintains the main reason of the Luis Juez collapse is that he ignored the sociological reality of his province, with the appearance of a new and prosper middle class whose needs and demands he didn't address, relying in his personal charisma and the carbon copy of the Binner's Santa Fe model. According to that, the humble voters whom backed him in the past now are 'captive', trapped in the clientelistic network of national and provincial subsidies financed by that mentioned middle class.

http://www.lavoz.com.ar/opinion/la-debacle-electoral-sufrida-porel-frente-civico-y-social

Here, infographics showing some local leaders and how they performed in their fiefdoms.

http://www.lavoz.com.ar/sites/default/files/file_attachments/nota_periodistica/Tierra_adentro.pdf

[Velasco]

Salta, the Trotskyst.

A new election was held on November 10 in Salta to renew 30 of the 60 provincial deputies and 12 of the 23 seats in the provincial senate. In parallel several local elections took place, including the city of Salta, the capital.

The several forces backing governor Juan Manuel Urtubey retained the majority in both chambers of the provincial legislature, winning in 20 out of 23 departments. Governmental forces won 7 senators (totalling 17 of 23) and 19 deputies (totalling 41 of 60). However, the highlight of the election was the result in the traditionally conservative capital, where the Workers' Party (Partido Obrero, PO) repeated the victory achieved in the national legislative election. Then, PO came first in the department of Salta's capital with 28.39% and Pablo López was elected national deputy. The city of Salta has a population of about 0.5 million and the whole province 1.2 million.

Provincial senate (every department has a single seat): PO's candidate Gabriela Cerrano (27.14%) defeated PJ's Gustavo Sáenz (22.69%), with the candidate of Frente Salteño (FS) coming third (15.61%).

The FS is the group lead by senator Juan Carlos Romero, a dissident Peronist. In the national legislative election FS made a coalition with the PRO and the People's Conservative Party, the Salta People's Front. Several groups backing governor Urtubey as the 'official' PJ, FPV or Movimiento Popular Unido stood their own lists in the different departments. A terrible mess.

Provincial deputies (10 seats): PO 26.7% (5 seats); PJ 17.43% (3); FS 10.13% (1); Salta Somos Todos 7.45% (1).

Local elections in Salta City: All 21 counciliors were renewed, with PO winning 9, PJ 6, Salta Somos Todos 2, FS 2 and FPV 2. Opposition forces have a 13/8 majority in the Council, leaving mayor Miguel Isa in an embarrassing situation. 

The new "historical" triumph of the Trorskyst left in Salta was echoed in the national media. PO's leader Jorge Altamira was euphoric, stating that voters broke the "routine" of voting Peronism. PO and FIT leaders are determined to fight Peronism in the unions (where Trotskyst are stronger, together with University circles). Altamira: "We are the condensation of a great popular movement. With the defeat of Peronism and with all the national results of October 27, we are going to try to change the political sign of the country and to recover the unions". Néstor Pitrola (national deputy, BsAS) defied Hermes Binner and the FAP: "It's not another thing that a conservative sector disguised with a progressive empty talking. Once we manage to unblock it, we will take our victory to Cordoba, Santa Fe and the Capital."