WV-03: Republicans hoping to finally oust Rahall

[Miles]

Article.

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FWIW, 2010/2012 was the first time in his career where Rahall feel below 60% in two consecutive elections.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

If he held on in 2012, he'll hold on in 2014.

[greenforest32]

If he held on in 2012, he'll hold on in 2014.

His district has shifted a lot though. The PVI is now R+14 compared to R+6.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjYj9mXElO_QdDloYUU4bElrM01KQkRNZE5tUGhQRVE#gid=0

I have a feeling 2014 isn't going to be good for Democrats in West Virginia.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

If he held on in 2012, he'll hold on in 2014.

His district has shifted a lot though. The PVI is now R+14 compared to R+6.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjYj9mXElO_QdDloYUU4bElrM01KQkRNZE5tUGhQRVE#gid=0

I have a feeling 2014 isn't going to be good for WV Democrats.

That was entirely due to 2012 being a presidential year. Obama isn't on the ballot in 2014.

[greenforest32]

The declining usage of coal certainly doesn't help. I think the Obama administration called off that emissions regulation for the 2014 Senate races.

Plus Republicans have been gaining seats in the state legislature. Just the state house they gained 6 in 2010 and 11 in 2012. They're now only 5 away from a majority. The ticket splitting in West Virginia is declining.

[Indy Texas 🇺🇦🇵🇸]

The declining usage of coal certainly doesn't help. I think the Obama administration called off that emissions regulation for the 2014 Senate races.

Plus Republicans have been gaining seats in the state legislature. Just the state house they gained 6 in 2010 and 11 in 2012. They're now only 5 away from a majority. The ticket splitting in West Virginia is declining.

What happens when Republicans finally do take power in WV and the coal industry is still stagnating because of economic factors beyond anyone's control? Do voters swing back to the Dems or do they decide the GOP is a more comfortable home for them to vent their rage about the miserable condition of their state (i.e. blame everyone but themselves)?

[publicunofficial]

The declining usage of coal certainly doesn't help. I think the Obama administration called off that emissions regulation for the 2014 Senate races.

Plus Republicans have been gaining seats in the state legislature. Just the state house they gained 6 in 2010 and 11 in 2012. They're now only 5 away from a majority. The ticket splitting in West Virginia is declining.

What happens when Republicans finally do take power in WV and the coal industry is still stagnating because of economic factors beyond anyone's control? Do voters swing back to the Dems or do they decide the GOP is a more comfortable home for them to vent their rage about the miserable condition of their state (i.e. blame everyone but themselves)?

When coal dies and takes the unions with it, West Virginia will follow the Southern tradition of voting based on social and domestic issues, regardless of whether it helps their economic standing.

[Miles]

Rahall is is running for the House again, and staying out of the Senate race.

While its the smarter move, WV also needs his seniority:

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[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

Good. We don't need Rahall committing political suicide.

[Mr.Phips]

Good. We don't need Rahall committing political suicide.

Yep.  He wouldn't have carried his own district and would have lost every county in the state outside of it to SMC.