What if Pawlenty never dropped out?

[Catholics vs. Convicts]

I am not sure if this has already been addressed, but as the Republican primaries and caucuses were starting up at the beginning of last year, I found myself wondering what if Pawlenty didn't drop out so early. He finished higher in the Ames Straw Poll than eventual, although temporary, 'front-runners' as Santorum, Cain, Gingrich, and even Romney, though we understand the Romney part. But in the fall of 2011 I kept saying why won't Gingrich and Santorum get the message that they will never have a shot at this and they came out of no where to do extremely well for a period of time. Wouldn't Pawlenty have had his chance to be the anti-Romney candidate? I think he would have been seen much more favorably than the other anti-Romney guys (not as extreme as Santorum and more likable than Gingrich). This was most likely Romeny's race to win the whole time, but had Pawlenty stayed in, would he have had the most success as the anti-Romney? Could he have pushed Romney longer than Santorum did?

[Maxwell]

He would have no success as an anti-Romney because he was basically Romney's mini-me.

Guy would've dropped out, at the latest, when he gets third in his home state to Santorum and Paul.

[Mister Mets]

The best-case scenario is that after the implosions of Bachmann, Perry, Gingrich and Cain, he would have been the anti-Romney. He didn't have the glaring shortcomings of any of the others, so it's possible that he would have maintained support among primary-goers. And as the others faded away, most of the vote would have gone to him.

In that case, he would have been a strong contender for the nomination. He might have performed slightly better in the General Election, although it's unlikely that he would have won. He might have won Florida and Ohio, and could have helped Republicans in close elections, although it was likely to only make a difference in the North Dakota Senate election, and the Puerto Rico gubernatorial election. It's also possible that he would have made a different gaffe, and lost Republicans the Senate races in Arizona and Nevada.

Had he finished second in the primary, he would have been a more obvious running mate for Romney, as well as the next in line for 2016.

He might also have been like Huntsman, never getting his day in the sun. In which case he owe even more money.

[Maxwell]

The best-case scenario is that after the implosions of Bachmann, Perry, Gingrich and Cain, he would have been the anti-Romney.

They wouldn't have gone to Pawlenty to be the anti-Romney ever for the same reason that they never went to Jon Huntsman to be the anti-Romney: because he's even WORSE for the conservative base. Pawlenty is the FACE of Cap and Trade. Pawlenty is as wimpy as Mitt Romney is, without any of the money. He IS Mitt Romney. How on earth would he ever be the Anti-Romney?

There was no path for the nomination for him, the only way he could've even be contested is if Romney didn't run. Simple as that.

[Mister Mets]

The best-case scenario is that after the implosions of Bachmann, Perry, Gingrich and Cain, he would have been the anti-Romney.

They wouldn't have gone to Pawlenty to be the anti-Romney ever for the same reason that they never went to Jon Huntsman to be the anti-Romney: because he's even WORSE for the conservative base. Pawlenty is the FACE of Cap and Trade. Pawlenty is as wimpy as Mitt Romney is, without any of the money. He IS Mitt Romney. How on earth would he ever be the Anti-Romney?

There was no path for the nomination for him, the only way he could've even be contested is if Romney didn't run. Simple as that.

The objection to Romney was his pandering. A man who was pro-choice as Governor of Massachusetts conveniently became pro-life when it was time to seek the presidential nomination of the republican party. And he made other conversions.

That was the main issue the primary voters had with him.

Pawlenty didn't have that problem. So I suspect he would have been acceptable to the base.

The problem with Huntsman was that he had moderate views, and didn't seem to like Republican primary voters. That also wasn't an issue with Pawlenty.

It's also possible that the people looking for a not-Romney were looking for someone who could excite them as much as Obama excites the liberals. Pawlenty would not have filled that role.

[Mr. Morden]

The "not-Romney" voters were hardly a monolithic group.  Pawlenty would have been acceptable to some of them, but not others.

In any case, the big question for Pawlenty would be money.  If a decent chunk of the big money establishment GOP donors who donated to Romney could be convinced to switch to Pawlenty, then Pawlenty would have had a good chance of bringing Romney down.  But why would they switch unless Pawlenty showed some indication that he could win, via good polling numbers?  But how could he get good polling numbers if he had no money?  It's that death spiral that he was staring down when he dropped out of the race.  He figured that he had no hope of raising more money unless he scored big in Ames.  So when he did terribly in Ames, there was no point in going on.