Danish Local and Regional Elections 19. November 2013

[Diouf]

That way they can get in their narrative early...

Indeed, I wonder whether the newspapers had the time to change their narrative. I imagine some front pages have had to be changed if they believed in the early exit polls/prognosis.

[lilTommy]

As a non-Dane, can someone explain why Fredreiksberg votes so heavily for the Conservatives? While the rest of Kobenhaven seems much more leftwing; the top two parties being Social Demorcats and Red-Green Alliance

[Diouf]

As a non-Dane, can someone explain why Fredreiksberg votes so heavily for the Conservatives? While the rest of Kobenhaven seems much more leftwing; the top two parties being Social Demorcats and Red-Green Alliance

The main reasons is that Frederiksberg is a far wealthier area, so students and immigrants can't afford to live there to the same degree as they can in Copenhagen/København. Frederiksberg is the kommune which gets the 9th highest amount of taxes per citizen, while Copenhagen is 28th on that list. Gentofte and Hørsholm are two highest kommuner on that liste, and both places the Conservatives have 40-50 %
A major part of is tradition as well. Frederiksberg has had Conservative mayors since 1909, so they have enjoyed the incumbency affect for a long time. However, the Liberal Alliance and the Social Liberals are much more popular among the young and affluent citizens, so they might erode away the Conservative support in some years.
In general elections, the Conservatives are not nearly as dominant; last time around they only received 9-10 % of the votes, twice as much as their national results but not extraordinary. At the last general election, support was spread out thinly between parties. The Social Liberals, the Liberals and the Social Democrats all hovered just below 20 %, 10-12 % for the SPP and the Unity List, and 7-10 % for the Conservatives and the Liberal Alliance. This is probably one of the worst areas for the DPP; they only got ca. 7 %.

[Diouf]

The final results of the local elections (change compared to 2009).

Social Democrats (Socialdemokraterne) (A)  29.5 % (-1.1%) 774 seats (-27)
Social Liberal Party (Det Radikale Venstre) (B) 4.8 % (+ 1.1%) 62 seats (+12)
Conservative People's Party (Det Konservative Folkeparti) (C) 8.6 % (-2.4 %) 205 seats (-57)        
Socialist People's Party (Socialistisk Folkeparti) (F) 5.6 % (-8.9 %) 115 seats (-225)
Liberal Alliance (Liberal Alliance) (I) 2.9 % (+2.6 %) 33 seats (+32)
Danish People's Party (Dansk Folkeparti) (O) 10.1 % (+2.0 %) 256 seats (+70)
Liberals (Venstre) (V) 26.6 % (+1.8 %) 746 seats (+67)
Red-Green Alliance (Enhedslisten) (Ø) 6.9 % (+4.6 %) 119 seats (+105)
Others ( mainly local lists) 5.0 % (+0.4 %) 114 seats (-1)

Seats on the board of Kommunernes Landsforening (National Association of Municipalities)
Social Democrats 6
Liberals 5
DPP 2
Conservatives 1
Social Liberals 1
SPP 1
Unity List 1

The composition is the same in Danske Regioner (Danish Regions). This means that the Social Liberals have the deciding seat in both boards, and can decide whether the President should be a Liberal or a Social Democrat. The most logical thing will probably be to support two Social Democrats, but there is the possibility that they would want to play moderate heroes and give one presidency to each side.

[Diouf]

The elections are tomorrow, so I will try to make a prediction for Aarhus, although as the wildly differing polls have shown, it can be quite difficult.

Social Democrats (A) 11 seats (-3)
Social Liberals (B) 2 seats (+1)
Conservatives (C) 2 seats (-1)
SPP (F) 3 seats (-2)
Liberal Alliance (I) 1 seat (+1)
DPP 2 (O) (=)
Liberals (V) 7 seats (+2)
Unity List (Ø) 3 seats (+2)

My prediction was not that far off. Here is the result from Aarhus.

Social Democrats (A) 13 seats (-1)
Social Liberals (B) 2 seats (+1)
Conservatives (C) 2 seats (-1)
SPP (F) 2 seats (-3)
Liberal Alliance (I) 1 seat (+1)
DPP 2 (O) (=)
Liberals (V) 6 seats (+1)
Unity List (Ø) 3 seats (+2)

The Social Democrats held up better than expected. Mayor Jacob Bundsgaard received 39.237 personal votes, more than the previous mayor Wammen achieved last time; although Bundsgaard's percentage of votes was lower as the turnout was a lot higher this time. Instead the SPP had an even worse election than expected, and it loses it rådmand in the city cabinet. The Unity List probably expected to get a rådmand after their brilliant election, but Bundsgaard made a deal with the Social Liberals who will get the post instead. The Conservatives held up decently, but received a lower amount of votes than the DPP, who will get a rådmand. However, these posts are not completely set in stone before the first city council meeting has ended.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Errors possible, of course.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

[Jens]

Nice maps, Al
And yeah, SF got its ass kicked

Funny story. An old friend of mine got elected to the municipal council in Allerød for the Unity List. Venstre jumped from their deal with the Conservatives (biggest party gets the mayoralty). The leftwing parties and Venstre agreed on a Venstre mayor, but my old buddy skipped the deal and refused to vote for any rightwing mayor (Allerød is heavily rightwing) so now it's 10 votes for Venstre and 10 votes for Conservatives, with the Unity List on the sideline...

He is a Troskyite in case anybody is wondering

[Filuwaúrdjan]

[Tayya]

I enjoy that the Unity List's strongest ward is next to upper-scale Frederiksberg.

[Jens]

I enjoy that the Unity List's strongest ward is next to upper-scale Frederiksberg.

That is inner Nørrebro. The most left wing area in the whole country. If you ever find yourself on Blågårds Plads, there is a quite decent change that you will bump into MP's from Unity List and SF and commies et. al.

[Diouf]

Great maps Sibboleth.

All the mayors have now been found. An interactive map of the kommuner and the colour of their mayor can be seen here: http://nyhederne.tv2.dk/samfund/2013-11-20-f%C3%B8lg-med-her-danmarks-nye-borgmestre

Venstre/Liberals 48 mayors (+17)
Socialdemokraterne/Social Democrats 33 (-16)
Konservative/Conservatives 13 (+1)
SF/SPP 1 (-1)
Radikale/Social Liberals 1 (+1)
Local lists 2 (-2)

DF/DPP didn't get a "proper" mayor, but they got their first mayor ever as a part of the Copenhagen city cabinet. Carl Christian Ebbensen will become mayor of Culture. Enhedslisten did not gain an extra mayor in Copenhagen, but due to their good results they had the first pick; they chose Technics and Environment which includes the responsibility for the roads in the kommune.

Copenhagen City Cabinet.
Frank Jensen from the Social Democrats remains chief mayor.
Remaining members/mayors of cabinet:
A 1 (=), B 1 (=), F 1 (-1), O 1 (+1), V 1 (=), Ø 1 (=)

Aarhus City Cabinet.
Jacob Bundsgaard from the Social Democrats remains mayor.
Remaning members/rådmænd of cabinet:
A 1 (-1), B 1 (+1), F 1 (=), V 1 (=), O 1 (+1). C loses their rådmand

Odense City Cabinet.
Anker Boye from the Social Democrats remains mayor.
Remaining members/rådmænd of the cabinet:
B 1 (+1), C 1 (=), V 1 (=), Ø 1 (+1). A and F lose their rådmænd.

Aalborg City Cabinet.
Thomas Kastrup-Larsen from the Social Democrats becomes mayor. Replaces fellow Social Democrat Henning Jensen who had retired.
Remaning members/rådmænd of the cabinet:
A 2 (=), C 1 (+1), V 2 (=), Ø 1 (+1). O and F lose their rådmænd.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

[Filuwaúrdjan]

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Are left wing parties really that dominant in Copenhagen?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Very much so: unbroken left-wing control of the city since before the First World War (even if 'control' was rather nominal for a few unpleasant years in the 1940s).

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Very much so: unbroken left-wing control of the city since before the First World War (even if 'control' was rather nominal for a few unpleasant years in the 1940s).

Why, may I ask? And why so much for Red-Green Alliance when compared to their national vote share...

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Very much so: unbroken left-wing control of the city since before the First World War (even if 'control' was rather nominal for a few unpleasant years in the 1940s).

Why, may I ask? And why so much for Red-Green Alliance when compared to their national vote share...

Copenhagen, in difference to Oslo and Stockholm, was heavily industrialized. It's also worth noting that the wealthy Copenhagen urbanites live in Fredriksberg (The big hole in Copenhagen on Al's map) which is strongly centre-right. As noted earlier in the thread they've had a Conservative mayor since 1909.

As to why the Unity List is strong there... well young people and immigrants. 

[politicus]

Very much so: unbroken left-wing control of the city since before the First World War (even if 'control' was rather nominal for a few unpleasant years in the 1940s).

Why, may I ask? And why so much for Red-Green Alliance when compared to their national vote share...

Copenhagen, in difference to Oslo and Stockholm, was heavily industrialized. It's also worth noting that the wealthy Copenhagen urbanites live in Frederiksberg (The big hole in Copenhagen on Al's map) which is strongly centre-right. As noted earlier in the thread they've had a Conservative mayor since 1909.

As to why the Unity List is strong there... well young people and immigrants. 

Immigrants do vote left, but not especially Unity List (its anti-religious, liberal on (most) moral issues and has very few immigrant politicians). Dissatisfied SD and SPP voters are the main factor. Copenhagen SDs are fairly left leaning and the austerity policies of the government have alienated more Social Democrats there than in most other regions while SPP was strong in Copenhagen and had a lot to lose. In other leftist SD areas such as Northern Jutland and Lolland-Falster there is a barrier towards voting for the Unity List as it is seen as run by a bunch of alien, extremist big city academics. So the Unity List generally had their biggest gains in the 100.000+ cities. All though they also made headway in leftist SD areas in Northern Jutland (and elsewhere).